Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Anxin Securities: frequent green power policies pay attention to green power sector opportunities
On November 24, the central Deep Reform Commission proposed to promote the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the transformation of energy structure and orderly promote the participation of new energy in market transactions. On the same day, the State Grid issued the inter provincial power spot trading rules, proposing that all power generation types and enterprises can participate in inter provincial power spot trading, and encouraging inter provincial green power trading. The inter provincial power spot market adopts the clearing mechanism of centralized bidding, and the unified bidding of coal-fired power generation, nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic and other power sources. Under the high coal price, the transaction price of wind power and photovoltaic is expected to rise, so as to improve the profitability of new energy power generation.
Green power policies appear frequently and continue to be optimistic about new energy power generation. It is suggested to pay attention to different types of green power targets according to risk preference: 1) stable performance and undervalued value, and China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) is preferred; 2) High performance growth, no drag on coal power performance: China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) ; 3) Coal power performance is dragged down, but the new energy assets in the body are underestimated: Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Resources Power, Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) . []
Chuancai Securities: power construction is expected to enter a historical cycle pay attention to smart grid end construction
Power construction is expected to enter a historical cycle, and pay attention to the construction of smart grid terminal. In the context of the energy revolution, the power grid construction end will also be gradually upgraded, and the distribution network will become the core of the power system. On the one hand, the transformation of the power grid end can reduce the power grid loss to a certain extent. Since this year, under the background of “dual control of energy consumption”, some regions have limited production and power. Although since October, local production and power restrictions have been loosened, which has corrected the “one size fits all” production and power restrictions and “mobile” carbon reduction in some places, However, under the background of rising power demand, there is a certain pressure on the national power supply, and reducing the power grid loss will save power resources to a certain extent; On the other hand, promoting the digital transformation of power grid and applying cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of things and other technologies to the reform and upgrading of power grid will greatly improve the efficiency of energy services. Related subjects: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) . []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : the reform plan of power market remains to be explored the software and hardware infrastructure of power system first
At present, China is experiencing a critical period of energy structure transformation. From January to September 2021, China’s installed capacity of wind power reached 300 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, and the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation reached 280 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. New energy power is unstable. Strengthening the stability and security of new energy power through the power marketization mechanism has become an important part of China’s current energy reform mechanism. In October 2021, China raised the floating range of transaction price in the coal-fired power generation market to no more than 20%, which means the further promotion of the power marketization trading mechanism. We believe that promoting the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the development of new energy and promoting the consumption of new energy power in the way of market-oriented and reasonable competition has become one of the important contents of China’s energy digitization reform in the future.
The reform plan of power market still needs to be explored, and the software and hardware infrastructure of power system is the first. The promotion methods of power market-oriented trading mechanism include liberalizing market-oriented electricity prices, introducing third-party power selling companies, promoting the construction of virtual power plants, etc. at present, China’s power market is still in a rapid promotion period, and the solutions are gradually being explored. The demand for power system software and hardware infrastructure based on power market reform will increase rapidly. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in the fields of power marketing system upgrading, new generation smart meters, power intelligence and information infrastructure. []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : the spot trading volume of inter provincial power is expanded which is significantly beneficial to green power and low-cost power supply
On November 24, the State Grid officially issued the inter provincial power spot trading rules (for Trial Implementation) in accordance with the reply on the inter provincial power spot trading rules of the State Grid Co., Ltd. issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau. The inter provincial power spot trading covers all inter provincial transactions within the scope of the State Grid Co., Ltd. and Inner Mongolia Electric Power Co., Ltd., and the participants cover all power types, The spot electricity market was further improved.
The expansion of spot trading volume of inter provincial power is significantly beneficial to green power and low-cost power supply. Under the new rules, thanks to the expansion of the trading scope from cross regional provinces to all provinces and the increase of superimposed power types, we believe that the spot trading volume of cross provincial power will be significantly expanded. In addition, the emergence of inter provincial spot will boost the power transmission price of most power sources. On the one hand, the spot price is mainly affected by supply and demand and variable costs. The current inter provincial transaction includes high variable cost power sources such as thermal power, which is different from the competition with renewable energy with low variable cost in the past. The high variable cost will increase the marginal cost of inter provincial spot, Expand the trading price of renewable energy; On the other hand, although the price is mainly affected by supply and demand, after the inter provincial flow of power commodities, the power in low-cost power rich areas will flow to high-price power shortage areas, which will promote the low-cost power operators in the western power rich areas to transmit power to the eastern high-price areas and improve their profitability. At the same time, the label attribute of green power will further promote the Eastern Green Power deficient provinces to purchase power from the west, which will significantly benefit the renewable energy operators in the West.
In terms of investment suggestions, after the introduction of the inter provincial power spot trading rules, the power operators will have the advantage of both volume and price increase, especially the renewable energy enterprises with operating assets in the West. It is suggested to pay attention to Longyuan Power, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) . []
Guosheng Securities: the construction of new power system is expected to speed up the leader of energy infrastructure is expected to benefit
Under the accelerated development trend of Fengguang new energy, the construction of new power system is expected to speed up, and the leader of energy infrastructure is expected to benefit. In the context of dual carbon, China’s energy structure transformation continues to deepen, and the new energy represented by wind and solar accelerates its development. Due to the instability of wind and solar power generation and the need for peak and frequency regulation, under the trend of large-scale access of new energy power, the power grid consumption capacity needs to be improved urgently, and the construction of new power system is expected to increase.
Recently, the central Deep Reform Commission pointed out that it is necessary to improve the multi-level unified power market system and speed up the construction of the national power market. At the same time, the State Grid issued the inter provincial power spot trading rules (Trial), which is expected to promote the construction of inter provincial power transmission channels and drive the construction of new power systems that consume new energy across regions, Relevant energy infrastructure leaders are expected to benefit: 1) power distribution side: under the background of electrification trend and accelerated development of distributed new energy, the investment and upgrading of distribution network is expected to speed up. It is recommended that Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) be the growth leader of private distribution network EPCO and Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) be the leader of enterprise energy efficiency management system; 2) Power transmission and transformation side: the construction of China’s cross regional power transmission system is expected to speed up, and the leader of high voltage and UHV construction China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) is recommended; 3) Energy storage: energy storage is an important means to improve the consumption capacity of the power grid, focusing on the leader of pumped storage construction Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) ; 4) Smart grid: with the increasing complexity of power grid system, the demand for intelligent software and hardware of power grid that can improve the reliability and safety of power transmission and distribution is expected to increase. Pay attention to the visual intelligent operation and maintenance expert of China Power Grid Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) . []
Capital Securities: relevant policy documents are intensively issued ! is conducive to the simultaneous increase of volume and price of new energy power generation
Recently, relevant policy documents have been intensively issued, and the construction of the national unified power market system has been continuously promoted. The construction of a national unified power market system will not only provide support for power supply guarantee, but also promote the optimal allocation of resources in a wider range. Promoting the participation of new energy in market transactions is conducive to the simultaneous rise of volume and price of new energy power generation. We maintain the “optimistic” investment rating of the industry and recommend Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) electric power, Datang new energy and other companies. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : onshore wind power entered the peak of delivery in the second half of the year, and 2022 ushered in the rush year of affordable demonstration projects
For the wind power industry, onshore wind power entered the peak period of delivery in the second half of the year, and 2022 ushered in the rush year of affordable demonstration projects. Recently, the bid winning price of several offshore wind power projects has decreased significantly compared with the rush period. Offshore wind power has accelerated the journey of parity, and the national 14th five year plan may exceed 40gw. The sea going of wind turbines and the localization of parts and components drive a new round of development opportunities.
For the photovoltaic industry, the continuation of parity and distributed policies, four main lines grasp the photovoltaic investment opportunities. 1. The PV inverter sector benefited from the substitution of domestic brands and shipment flexibility, and the performance and market share of China’s core inverter continued to rise. 2. The photovoltaic glass link has gradually entered the bottom area of the price, and the leading pattern is always strong. With the continuous large-scale new installed capacity, the leading target of the glass link may usher in a reversal of volume and price. 3. Heterojunction equipment is progressing well, and further attention is paid to core indicators such as heterojunction single GW investment, actual mass production conversion efficiency and yield. 4. The distributed development of the whole county is beneficial to the listed leading enterprises in the household link and improve the profit space of operators. Multiple favorable policies are superimposed to consolidate the prosperity prospect of the industry in the next three years. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: establish a national unified power market promote the rapid development of green power
Establish a national unified power market to promote the rapid development of green power. Recently, the meeting of the central Deep Reform Commission proposed to build a national unified power market system, promote the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the transformation of energy structure, and orderly promote the participation of new energy in market transactions. In addition, the State Grid has also issued the inter provincial power spot trading rules, which proposes that all power generation types and enterprises can participate in inter provincial power spot trading and encourage inter provincial green power trading. The construction of a national unified power market system can not only increase the green power premium, but also increase the green power consumption proportion, which is conducive to ensuring the profitability of new energy power generation enterprises and accelerating the clean and low-carbon transformation of the power system. []
