Eight charts per day overview of a shares: four positive factors support the cross year market of a shares! Grasp the three main lines and be careful of the two interference factors

Today (December 3), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, the stock index fell once; With the pull-down and rise driven by the infrastructure and power sectors, the stock index stabilized and rose in the afternoon, the Shanghai index returned to the integer level of 3600 points, and the gem index realized the reverse pattern of deep V form.

As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose 0.94% to 3607.43 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to 14892.05; The gem index rose 0.34% to 3478.67.

From the disk point of view, in addition to a few sectors facing a correction, most industries cooperate with the concept sector to do more, and the market ushered in the long lost general rising market. In terms of industry, port water transportation, coal, electric power, aerospace, wine making and wind power led the rise; In terms of subject stock, EDR concept, tire pressure monitoring, Baijiu, digital currency and so on rose earlier.

In terms of capital, the people’s Bank of China announced on December 3 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China launched RMB 10 billion reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on December 3, 2021, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.20%. In view of the maturity of RMB 100 billion reverse repurchase today. The people’s Bank of China realized a net return of 90 billion yuan.

hot plate

Top 10 gainers in industry sector

Top 10 industry sector declines

Top 10 gainers in concept sector

Top 10 decline in concept sector

individual stock monitoring

Top 10 net inflow of main forces

Top 10 net outflow of main force

northbound funds

southbound fund

message plane

1. According to 21 finance and economics, on December 3, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the “14th five year plan” for industrial green development, and proposed that by 2025, the carbon emission intensity will continue to decline, the carbon dioxide emission per unit of industrial added value will be reduced by 18%, and the total carbon emission control of key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metals and building materials will achieve phased results; The emission intensity of major pollutants in key industries was reduced by 10%; Energy consumption per unit of added value of industries above designated size decreased by 13.5%; The comprehensive utilization rate of bulk industrial solid waste reached 57%, and the recycling amount of main renewable resources reached 480 million tons; The output value of green environmental protection industry reached 11 trillion yuan.

2. According to Shanghai Securities News, on December 3, the State Medical Security Bureau held a press conference to announce the adjustment results of the national medical insurance drug catalogue in 2021. A total of 74 drugs were added to the catalogue and 11 drugs were removed from the catalogue. The total number of drugs in the national medical insurance drug catalogue in 2021 is 2860, which will be implemented on January 1, 2022.

3. According to the securities times, the Caixin China general service industry business activity index (service industry PMI) released on December 3 recorded 52.1, down 1.7 percentage points from October. The service industry business activity maintained growth for the third consecutive month, but the growth rate was slight, the lowest in three months. In November, the business activities of China’s service industry further expanded, but the expansion growth rate slowed down compared with October due to the rebound of covid-19 epidemic in some regions.

4. According to the Shanghai Securities News, the reporter learned that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently issued the guiding opinions on the banking and insurance industry supporting high-level scientific and technological self-reliance, so as to promote the banking and insurance industry to optimize scientific and technological financial services and support high-level scientific and technological self-reliance.

institutional view

For the current market, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) mentioned that this year’s cross year market is expected to start, “spring agitation” or start earlier, and there is a greater opportunity for the size index to resonate upward. There are four main reasons: 1) during the implementation of wide credit, the tension of real estate funds has eased, and the issuance of special bonds can be expected. 2) The valuation of A-Shares is not expensive and the stock market is abundant in liquidity. Nearly 80% of the industries are near or below the valuation Center since 2010, and there are great repair opportunities; With the decline of upstream prices, the pressure on the cost side of the middle and lower reaches is relieved, and there is marginal room for improvement in Q4 profits. 3) The economic data is at a low level, the end of the year and the beginning of the year are at the cross cycle adjustment force window, and the economic work conference is about to be held. The market’s expectations of steady growth and policy relaxation are expected to continue to heat up. 4) The overseas fed released the “Dove” signal, US stocks continued to reach new highs and created a favorable external environment.

Guosheng Securities said that from the macro environment analysis, there are two factors that greatly interfere with the market trend: first, covid-19 mutant virus, and the final influence of “Omicron” virus is still being evaluated by the medical community; The second is whether the Fed will reduce its bond purchase in advance. At present, the Shanghai index is continuously independent of the US stock market and shows a certain toughness. Therefore, under the background that China’s epidemic prevention policy is the first in the world, the market operation process is only disturbed, not reversed. Grasp the structural opportunity, still focus on the strategy, and be optimistic about the large consumption, food and health products under the “cross year market”, as well as the semiconductor, Internet of things and other tracks driven by high growth.

In terms of operation strategy, Ping An Securities pointed out that the overall fluctuation is upward, and grasp the three main lines of innovation + Green + consumption in the medium term. A-Shares are expected to fluctuate upward in 2022, and the plate rotation is more frequent with the industrial boom and the relative strength of the valuation price.

Based on further analysis, the organization suggests to grasp three main lines structurally: first, innovation driven main line. High end manufacturing includes chips, innovative drugs, medical devices, new materials, national defense and military industry, etc. digital economy includes 5g and the construction of data center, cloud computing / artificial intelligence / Internet of things and other digital technology applications; Second, the main line of carbon neutralization, the diffusion of investment opportunities in upstream and downstream links of the industrial chain such as new energy vehicles, new energy, energy storage, energy conservation and environmental protection, and pay attention to preventing the risk of periodic overvaluation; Third, the improvement of consumption margin is the main line. The overestimation of food, beverage and beauty care sector is expected to ease, and the profit expectation of outdoor activities is expected to turn positive. However, the scope and pace of consumption improvement may be subject to twists and turns affected by the epidemic.

In addition, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) believes that at present, due to the recent impact of Omicron, there are two clues in the market: 1) Omicron has brought new opportunities led by the maritime sector. Recently, under the influence of Omicron, shipping and other sectors are catalyzed by the expected rise in freight rates caused by the exposure of variant viruses. The market’s response to the epidemic is finally reflected in shipping, and the subsequent performance of relevant sectors is expected. 2) To some extent, the epidemic has strengthened the main line of the high boom plate under the cross-year market. The performance of high boom sectors related to military industry and new energy is still strong. The growth sector has digested the impact of Omicron, and the follow-up growth main line is expected to continue to lead the cross-year market.

 

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