Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
open source Securities: RRR reduction is expected to be approaching! The brokerage sector welcomes multiple profits two main lines
In terms of securities companies: the RRR reduction is expected to be approaching. The securities companies sector welcomes multiple profits, and the two main lines recommend targets. (1) When meeting with Georgieva of the International Monetary Fund on December 3, Premier Li Keqiang said that China would maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and reduce the reserve requirement in due time. The market has strong expectations for the approaching of the comprehensive RRR reduction, loose liquidity, which is good for various businesses of securities companies, and high leverage head securities companies benefit more.
(2) In terms of industrial policies, liberalizing the lending of venture capital securities is expected to significantly increase the scale of securities lending, which will bring benefits to various institutional businesses of securities companies, and the head securities companies will benefit more; On December 3, the CSRC announced the list of the first 10 pilot securities companies for optimizing account management functions, including Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , CICC wealth and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) . The regulator said it would “pilot in batches and gradually liberalize”. Support securities companies to carry out pilot optimization of account management functions from the aspects of establishing comprehensive customer accounts, allowing transfer of the same name and classified account management, which is conducive to securities companies to improve customer service efficiency and promote the transformation of wealth management.
(3) The securities industry has ushered in multiple profits, is optimistic about the cross year market of the sector, continues to promote the leading target of the main line of large wealth management, and is optimistic about the head securities companies with undervalued value. Recommend Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and benefit from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) .
Insurance: the market is worried about the short-term impact of the “measures for the management of life insurance sales”. (1) The market pays more attention to the impact of the “measures for the management of life insurance sales”. The above measures are beneficial to the healthy development of the industry in the long term, but there is great pressure on the recruitment and retention of new insurance companies in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of follow-up policies. (2) The improvement of the insurance liability side still needs to be observed. The improvement of the risk margin of the real estate chain is beneficial to the insurance investment side to a certain extent. It is recommended that China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with leading transformation and outstanding comprehensive competitive advantage benefit the subject AIA. []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : at present, the safety margin of the bank plate is relatively high two stock selection main lines are exposed
The core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. We expect that the asset quality of listed banks will be stable in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank stocks.
Banks have two main lines of stock selection. One is our long-term proposal to continue to embrace the core assets of banks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) . Their performance is highly sustainable and scarce. The boom of high-quality banks is certain and long-term. First, these scarce high-quality banks have a “market-oriented gene” and “run to make money” in the industry of “lying to make money”; Therefore, in the era of banking differentiation, their growth can be valued continuously. Second, these banks occupy the sunrise track of the financial industry: wealth management and retail; Our in-depth report estimates that the growth rate of wealth management profits in the next decade will be 21%.
The other is to choose banks with undervalued value, safe asset quality and expected successful transformation, and be optimistic about Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) . []
Huajin Securities: insurance funds participate in securities lending or further improve the investment performance of insurance enterprises improve the valuation of insurance sector
On December 3, the CBRC issued the notice on matters related to the participation of insurance funds in securities lending business. The securities lending business of insurance companies is expected to further enhance the market activity: from the beginning of 2021 to the end of November, the daily average stock turnover of A-Shares is 1.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.21%; By the end of November, the balance of A-share financing was 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.65%, of which the balance of financing was 1.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.31%, and the balance of securities lending was 128.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.56%. Less securities source of securities lending business is an important factor restricting the expansion of business scale. The securities lending business of insurance enterprises can greatly enrich the securities source of securities lending business. We assume that the interest margin of securities companies participating in refinancing business is 5%, and the incremental securities lending business brought by single insurance capital will increase the net profit of the securities industry by about 4.26% (calculated based on the data of 2020).
In terms of investment suggestions, 1) securities lending business will help revitalize the long-term investment assets held by insurance companies, or further improve the investment performance of insurance companies and enhance the valuation of the sector. At present, listed insurance companies such as Guoshou, Ping An, CPIC, Taiping and Xinhua meet the requirements for the development of securities lending business, and the scale of bond investment and stock investment is much larger than that of unlisted insurance companies, or they will become the main beneficiaries of the development of securities lending business; 2) Insurance capital participates in securities lending business to realize the win-win of insurance, securities companies and investors. Rich investment strategies help to consolidate the active capital market, and the profits of securities companies are expected to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to leading securities companies such as CITIC, Huatai and CICC; 3) After the implementation of securities lending business, the demand for it system transformation of insurance enterprises has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) . []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : multiple favorable policies superimpose “timely RRR reduction” or further promote the prosperity of the securities industry
Recently, a number of policies that have a significant impact on securities companies have been intensively released, including opening the pilot of optimizing the account management function of securities companies, allowing insurance funds to participate in securities lending business, and introducing the management measures for income swap business. We believe that the implementation of relevant policies confirms the determination of the regulatory authorities to deepen the reform of the capital market, and securities companies will continue to benefit as the core carrier. We firmly recommend Huatai and suggest paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) H. At the same time, when meeting with the president of the IMF, the premier proposed to “formulate policies based on the needs of market subjects and reduce the reserve requirement in time”. The implementation of the RRR reduction in the future may further release the market momentum. []
Wanlian Securities: modified by asset quality expectation ! In 2022, the banking sector may usher in an opportunity for valuation improvement
There is still loose demand for monetary policy in 2022. In 2022, China’s macro economy is facing downward pressure, and the debt pressure related to real estate continues to exist, which itself needs a relatively loose policy environment to deal with. We expect that the growth rate of social finance in 2022 will start to recover slowly and moderately around the first quarter of 2022. In addition, the main regulatory attitude of supporting the development of the real economy and reducing financing costs will not change. The measures are expected to focus on reducing the cost at the liability end.
Looking forward to 2022, in the short term, the valuation of the banking sector is limited due to the impact of debt risk pressure. Around the second quarter of 2022, it may be revised by the expectation of asset quality, or there may be an opportunity to improve the valuation of the sector. In terms of individual stock selection in 2022, we suggest paying attention to two main lines: first, due to the impact of the macroeconomic downward cycle, we suggest paying attention to companies with relatively weak cycle and stable growth. The second is to focus on companies whose fundamentals continue to improve and whose valuations are expected to improve. []
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : alpha factor is expected to dominate large public offering and market making transactions will affect the performance of bond business in 2022
Alpha factor is expected to become the dominant factor, and large public offering and market making transactions will affect the performance of bond business in 2022. Although the market activity and market situation are expected to remain high in 2022, under such a high base, beta factors are difficult to bring large marginal incremental factors. On the contrary, the probability of asset management business and market making trading business dominated by public funds with strong alpha attribute will become the leading factor of incremental performance in 2022. Due to the asset light mode of public funds, the possibility of listing in a short time is relatively low, so the market focuses on securities companies holding equity of public funds. In view of this, we believe that the differentiation degree and probability of bond business performance will increase in 2022, and the model of “watching the sky and eating” will be unsustainable.
From the perspective of investment suggestions and investment targets, liquidity and policy double click to lay the foundation for the market of securities companies. From the perspective of lengthening the cycle, the trillion daily average turnover will become normalized, and the turnover center will continue to increase; At the same time, the policy dividends at both ends of investment and financing in the capital market will continue to be released, laying a friendly policy foundation.
Main line of derivatives: at present, the development of China’s derivatives market is still in its early stage. Compared with overseas markets, the market space of derivatives is huge, and the requirements for professionalism and institutional customer resources are very high, which is easy to form scale effect and high concentration, especially good for head securities companies. However, in view of the fact that the current relevant policies have not been finally implemented and the investment outlet has not yet arrived, It can be used as the subject of medium and long-term investment for continuous attention, and can be properly arranged on the left. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is recommended and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) is recommended.
The main line of public offering is the most important medium and long-term in the securities business section α However, due to the asset light mode of public funds, the possibility of listing in a short time is relatively low. Therefore, the market focuses on the securities companies holding the equity of public funds, facing the valuation improvement brought by sotp revaluation. It is recommended to Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , and pay attention to China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) . []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : insurance capital is allowed to participate in securities lending, and the supply and demand structure of the capital market is further optimized
On December 3, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on matters related to insurance funds participating in securities lending business, which not only officially liberalized the participation of insurance funds in securities lending business, but also standardized the participation of insurance funds in securities lending business. In recent years, the policy on the use of insurance funds has been continuously broadened, the investment scope of insurance funds has been widened, the upper limit of investment proportion has been increased, and innovative investment methods have emerged. For example, qualified insurance funds are allowed to participate in public offering REITs, which has promoted the high-quality development of the asset side of the insurance industry and alleviated some of the pressure of insurance enterprises under the downturn of the liability side of the short-term industry. The logic of the industry’s long-term development remains unchanged. The industry’s assets and liabilities are expected to improve in the future. It is optimistic about the long-term allocation value and maintains the “overweight” rating. Individual stocks recommend China Property Insurance and {601601601}. In addition, with the in-depth promotion of market-oriented reform at both ends of investment and financing in the capital market and the continuous implementation of favorable policies, we are optimistic about leading securities companies with strong comprehensive strength and outstanding wealth management business. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: valuation is at a historically low level banking sector prominent allocation value
The year-on-year recovery of economic indicators and social finance, the recovery of loan interest rates of financial institutions, and the continuous improvement of policy margin, taking into account the stable growth of total volume and the role of structural monetary policy, will help to cope with the downward pressure on the economy, promote the release of credit and the resolution of credit risks of real estate enterprises, and improve the business environment of banks. Considering the year-on-year weakening of provision, the release of pressure on the volume and price of deposit and loan business and the rapid development of wealth management business, it is expected that the annual performance of the bank will maintain high growth and strong certainty, which will support the valuation of the sector. Current plate pb0 63 times, the valuation is at a historically low level, and the allocation value is prominent. We continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the banking sector and give a “recommended” rating. For individual stocks, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) are recommended. []
