Today (December 6), the three major A-share stock indexes opened up and down differently. After the Shanghai index opened high, it fell sharply at the beginning of the session and quickly stabilized and rose. Under the protection of the large financial market, the stock index maintained a high shock and consolidation. After the gem index opened low, it once pulled up and then fell again. On the whole, the Shanghai index performed better than the gem index. From the disk point of view, the "bull market flag bearer" led the "electric steel and gas" competition, the real estate, Yuan universe and other plates have changed performance, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that A-Shares may continue to be more resilient than overseas markets, and the policy expectation of internal stable growth is still a more key factor leading the market performance. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market. The end of the year to the beginning of next year may be an important window for policy reinforcement, and the market performance may tend to be positive step by step. According to the industry allocation suggestions, the allocation continues to tilt towards the policy expectations and the middle and lower reaches.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[ theme one ] meta universe
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that metaverse is the main investment line of global TMT in the near future. Catalyst 1: at Facebook's annual connect conference at the end of October, the company announced to change its name to meta, opening the all in transformation from social media platform to meta universe ecology. Catalyst 2: at the Microsoft ignite conference in early November, the company announced its official entry into the meta universe and synchronously announced the meta universe office scenario solution meshforteams. It is judged that giants such as meta and Microsoft are gathering together to rush the meta universe and release a strong signal: the meta universe is moving from concept to the initial stage of industrial application, and the next Internet era has arrived.
Anxin securities mentioned that Facebook and Microsoft have entered the market one after another, and the meta universe market has driven the development of VR industry: after Facebook renamed meta and announced to enter the meta universe, on November 2, Microsoft announced at ignite 2021 conference that it plans to realize the meta universe through a series of new applications integrating the virtual environment, so that the digital world can share and communicate with the physical world. Metauniverse is a virtual and real digital world in space dimension and time dimension. It aims to form a virtual reality system including network, hardware interruption and users. It is expected to produce a considerable market in the future. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the market size of the meta universe will reach US $1.5 trillion in 2030.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) indicates that VR / AR is the core entrance to the future of the metauniverse. Since Facebook released its VR headset oculus quest2 in October 2020, it has sold more than one million units in Q4 in 20 years. Yingwei predicts that the sales of this product will exceed 8 million units in 21 years, becoming an absolute popular model in the industry. With the continuous increase of VR hardware sales, it also drives the whole VR software ecology. The proportion of VR players linked every month on steam platform continues to increase. As the core entrance to the future of the meta universe, VR devices can further improve the authenticity and interactivity of user experience. From the perspective of investment suggestions, metauniverse will be used as the next generation traffic entrance, which is recommended to focus on. Overseas companies such as unity, NVIDIA, roblox, etc., and Chinese companies such as Goertek Inc(002241) .
In addition, new era Securities believes that yuanuniverse investment is first in the game. The third quarterly report of the game has a bright performance, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) 867 million in the third quarter, an increase of 54.77% and 81% after deducting non profits; Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) the game performance in the third quarter was 550 million yuan; G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) the net profit in the first three quarters reached 1.206 billion yuan, an increase of 51.7% at the same time; Mingchen Health Co.Ltd(002919) the net profit in the first three quarters was 121 million yuan, an increase of 158% at the same time; Others such as Kingnet Network Co.Ltd(002517) , Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) , Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network Technology Co.Ltd(603258) , Yoozoo Interactive Co.Ltd(002174) have good performance recovery and growth. []
[Topic 2] power
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that China is currently experiencing a critical period of energy structure transformation. From January to September 2021, China's installed capacity of wind power reached 300 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed capacity of power generation reached 280 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. New energy power is unstable. Strengthening the stability and security of new energy power through the power marketization mechanism has become an important part of China's current energy reform mechanism. In October 2021, China raised the floating range of transaction price in the coal-fired power generation market to no more than 20%, which means the further promotion of the power marketization trading mechanism. We believe that promoting the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the development of new energy and promoting the consumption of new energy power in the way of market-oriented and reasonable competition has become one of the important contents of China's energy digitization reform in the future.
Chuancai Securities pointed out that power construction is expected to enter a historical cycle and pay attention to the construction of smart grid terminal. In the context of the energy revolution, the power grid construction end will also be gradually upgraded, and the distribution network will become the core of the power system. On the one hand, the transformation of the power grid end can reduce the power grid loss to a certain extent. Since this year, under the background of "dual control of energy consumption", some regions have limited production and power. Although since October, local production and power restrictions have been loosened, which has corrected the "one size fits all" production and power restrictions and "mobile" carbon reduction in some places, However, under the background of rising power demand, there is a certain pressure on the national power supply, and reducing the power grid loss will save power resources to a certain extent; On the other hand, promoting the digital transformation of power grid and applying cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of things and other technologies to the reform and upgrading of power grid will greatly improve the efficiency of energy services.
Anxin Securities said that on November 24, the central Deep Reform Commission proposed to promote the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the transformation of energy structure and orderly promote the participation of new energy in market transactions. On the same day, the State Grid issued the inter provincial power spot trading rules, proposing that all power generation types and enterprises can participate in inter provincial power spot trading, and encouraging inter provincial green power trading. The inter provincial power spot market adopts the clearing mechanism of centralized bidding, and the unified bidding of coal-fired power generation, nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic and other power sources. Under the high coal price, the transaction price of wind power and photovoltaic is expected to rise, so as to improve the profitability of new energy power generation. []
[Topic 3] steel
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that since the supply side structural reform, the supply and demand structure of the industry, the operation efficiency and operation capacity of steel mills have undergone fundamental changes. A large number of steel enterprises have maintained a high proportion of cash dividends, and the profitability of industry leaders has been repeatedly verified. Moreover, under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the general direction of top supply will not change, the industrial structure will maintain healthy development, and there is room for improvement in the industry valuation center. In the short term, the steel output will still be strictly controlled. Although the demand is weak, it is expected to improve. As the steel price stabilizes, the steel plate may enter the bottom stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) with mica resource guarantee and cost advantage.
In addition, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the policy at the end of the year was favorable: 1) at the industrial level, the carbon peak scheme for the iron and steel industry is expected to be introduced in the near future, and we expect that strict supply control will still be implemented; 2) The demand for steady economic growth is prominent, especially the serious decline in real estate data, and the need for policy stimulus is strengthened; 3) The production restriction policy of the Winter Olympic Games may further raise the expectation of market supply contraction. Therefore, we expect the bottom of the steel industry to be basically confirmed and enter the re allocation range.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that in the long run, under the background of carbon neutralization, the supply of the industry in the next few years will be continuously and long-term restrained, and the supply cycle will end. In the cycle of significant increase in industry concentration, with the optimization of competition pattern and the improvement of enterprise pricing power, the iron and steel industry may return to the profit margin of normal industrial products, and the industry valuation system may usher in switching. Therefore, in the short term, the bottom of the iron and steel industry may have appeared, there is a large space for value revaluation in the plate, and the medium and long term may usher in the switching from cyclical products to industrial products. []
[Topic 4] coal
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that since mid October, coal price supervision and intervention policies are still advancing, putting pressure on market sentiment. However, judging from the current coal price expectation, Q4 and next year's performance of coal enterprises are still expected to remain high. With the gradual implementation of the policy, the market's negative expectation or basic digestion of price limit, the marginal relaxation of the policy of the real estate industry chain, the further release of demand in the peak season in December and the expectation of dividends from leading enterprises all contribute to the recovery of market sentiment, which is expected to become a catalyst for valuation repair after the sharp decline of the coal sector.
Kaiyuan Securities said that under the expectation of cold winter, the coal consumption demand will rise rapidly this winter and next spring, and the terminal replenishment demand may continue to be strong throughout the peak season; On the supply side, with the implementation of nuclear capacity increase, the production area will accelerate the release of increment, and the supply tension will be alleviated. In terms of coal price, the national development and Reform Commission recently held a symposium to study and improve the coal price formation mechanism, stressed the great significance of establishing a coal price range regulation mechanism, guided the coal price to operate in a reasonable range, and made the coal price truly reflect the fundamentals of market supply and demand. It is expected that the intervention and regulation of coal prices by policies in the future will be continued, and it may be difficult for coal prices to rise or fall sharply. At the same time, we may pay more attention to the definition of a reasonable range. In addition, the national coal Fair will be held in early December, so we need to pay attention to the signing of the 2022 long-term association and the changes in the pricing mechanism of the long-term association.
The agency further mentioned that at present, coal stocks are basically at the bottom. With the stabilization of coal price correction policy, the risk factors of pit mouth exceeding the expected price limit in the early stage have been basically released. Coal stocks will return to the main investment line supported by performance, and the characteristics of undervaluation on the basis of stable performance are highlighted again. At the same time, under the background of double carbon, coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, Under the expectation of medium and long-term tight supply normalization, the value of coal enterprises needs to be revalued. We are still optimistic about investment opportunities in coal stocks. []
[subject five ] natural gas
For the global natural gas market, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that Russia's gas supply to some pipelines in Europe may remain low due to force majeure, affecting the supply of natural gas in Europe. Natural gas consumption may gradually enter the peak season, European LNG imports have increased significantly, and European natural gas inventories continue to maintain a low level; U.S. LNG exports have increased significantly, U.S. natural gas inventories are relatively low, and subsequent exports may be affected by China's supply and demand balance; China's natural gas demand continues to grow, and the global natural gas supply and demand continues to be in a tight balance.
Everbright futures pointed out that with the gradual recovery of the global economy from the epidemic, energy prices, including crude oil, coal and natural gas, have also risen sharply this year, of which the increase of natural gas is the most striking. European TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose to nearly 120 euros / megawatt hour (about US $40 / million BTU), up more than 700% year-on-year; The benchmark price of JKM in Asia rose to US $35 / million BTU, up more than 400% year-on-year, while Henry hub natural gas futures in the United States increased relatively little, up to about US $6 / million BTU, double the same period last year. As one of the main power generation sources in Europe, the price rise and supply shortage of natural gas have led to a sharp rise in electricity prices in some European countries (Britain, Spain, etc.), which has aroused the market's attention to the "energy crisis".
The agency further analyzed that for the natural gas market, in the coming cold winter, the European natural gas supply is still lack of elasticity; This winter may be colder than in previous years, which may lead to higher demand in the global natural gas market than in previous years. In addition to Europe, the US natural gas inventory is still lower than the historical average in the same period; However, the problem of supply and demand in China's natural gas market is relatively not obvious.
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that under the situation of relief of covid-19 epidemic, the shortage of natural gas drives the demand for crude oil, the insufficient output of OPEC + expands the gap between supply and demand, and the international oil price is at an all-time high. We believe that the oil price center will still have a large increase year-on-year in 2021, so we are still optimistic about the petrochemical industry chain benefiting from the rise of oil price center as a whole. []
