Today (December 6), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened mixed. At the beginning of the session, the Shanghai index fell sharply after opening high, then stabilized and rose, maintaining a high shock, while the gem index fluctuated after opening low, rapidly rising and rising. Unfortunately, the upward momentum was limited, and then showed a weak consolidation pattern; In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes fluctuated lower, and further dived in the late afternoon. The gem index was weak all day, and the A-Shares rose and fell as a whole.
As of the day’s closing of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the Shanghai index fell 0.5%, falling below the integer mark of 3600 points to 3589.31 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 0.93% to 14752.96 points; The gem index fell 2.09% to 3405.93.
From the disk point of view, the market is still uncertain, and the structural market will continue. While paying attention to the overall risk, we can focus on the individual stock market from bottom to top. In terms of industry, precious metals, securities, banking and insurance rose against the market; In terms of subject stocks, EDR concept, superconducting concept, glyphosate, base metals, etc. rose higher.
In terms of capital, the people’s Bank of China announced on December 6 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China launched RMB 10 billion reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on December 6, 2021, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.20%. In view of the maturity of RMB 100 billion reverse repurchase today. The people’s Bank of China realized a net return of 90 billion yuan.
hot plate
Top 10 gainers in industry sector
Top 10 industry sector declines
Top 10 gainers in concept sector
Top 10 decline in concept sector
individual stock monitoring
Top 10 net inflow of main forces
Top 10 net outflow of main force
northbound funds
southbound fund
message plane
1. According to the central bank’s website, in order to support the development of the real economy and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs, the people’s Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%.
2. According to chinanews.com, the economic Blue Book: analysis and forecast of China’s economic situation in 2022 released on December 6 points out that the global economy will continue to recover in the coming period, but the recovery is facing uncertainty. It is estimated that China’s economy will grow by 8.0% in 2021, with an average growth of 5.1% in the two years from 2020 to 2021. Considering that the global epidemic continues, China’s economy is expected to grow by about 5.3% in 2022, with an average growth rate of 5.2% in the three years from 2020 to 2022, slightly higher than the average growth rate in the two years from 2020 to 2021.
3. According to China Securities News, on December 6, the reporter learned from authorities that the National Energy Administration recently issued the notice on organizing the second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas. The notice requires all provincial energy authorities to submit the list of the second batch of projects to the operation Bureau of the national development and Reform Commission, the new energy department and the power department of the national energy administration before December 15.
4. According to the national grain production data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the total national grain output in 2021 was 1365.7 billion kg, an increase of 26.7 billion kg or 2.0% over the previous year. The annual grain output reached a new high and remained above 1.3 trillion kg for seven consecutive years. Among them, the output of autumn grain was 1017.8 billion kg, an increase of 19.1 billion kg or 1.9% over the previous year.
institutional view
For the current market, AVIC Securities said that at the current time point, when the policy bottom is gradually clear, we believe that A-Shares have the basic conditions for central lifting, and there may be a round of beta market to break the shock range. The bottom of the policy is often ahead of the bottom of the economy. Historically, the policy bottom generally corresponds to the bottom of a shares. The recent introduction of a series of policies means that the policy bottom probability has emerged. Looking back on the history of a shares, the over issuance of currency and the bottoming of economy are the basis of the bull market. Excessive currency issuance creates excess liquidity, depresses the denominator and improves valuation. The bottom of the economy corresponds to the bottom of corporate profits, and the molecular end begins to peak and rise. We use the difference between M2 growth rate and nominal GDP growth rate to describe the degree of currency over issuance, and use PMI as the synchronous indicator of the overall profit growth of enterprises. Historical data show that whenever the monetary over issuance index rises, the PMI bottoms out and there is a bull market in equity assets.
Macroscopically, why do you choose to reduce the reserve requirement at this time? Previously, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believed that there are two main reasons for mentioning the RRR reduction at this time: on the one hand, the momentum of economic recovery is not consolidated, especially the structural imbalance is still prominent, such as the problem of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the real economy concerned by the prime minister in the press release. Although the economic data in the fourth quarter may be improved compared with that in the third quarter, it is still at a weak level. From the perspective of profits of industrial enterprises, the overall upward growth conceals that the proportion of profits of upstream industries is still increasing. Nearly 40% of industries “increase income without increasing profits”, and most small, medium and micro enterprises are concentrated in these middle and downstream industries. Therefore, It has become the meaning of the policy to release low-cost funds to support entity enterprises by reducing reserve requirements; On the other hand, the maturity of MLF also needs to be hedged in time. In December, there were 950 billion yuan of MLF maturing in the market, which is the second highest single month maturity scale since this year, and the maturing liquidity also needs to be hedged in time. At this time, the RRR reduction will help to further reduce the cost of bank liabilities.
At the same time, how far will the interest rate cut be after the RRR reduction? The agency further analyzed that the crux of the current economic operation lies in the squeeze on the profit side by the rising cost, which suppresses the improvement of manufacturing investment and even employment. Even if the year-on-year growth rate of PPI is about to peak and fall, the upward pressure on costs will not be relieved soon. From the experience of the last round of rapid rise in PPI, the upward lag of enterprise costs and the growth rate of PPI peaked for about half a year, which means that enterprise profits will still be under pressure from the cost side in the first half of next year. From the perspective of alleviating enterprise costs, we believe that interest rate cuts play a greater role than RRR cuts. However, considering that the external policy shift has just started, China’s industrial product price growth is still high, and the release of economic downward pressure has not been fully released, the timing of interest rate cuts may be more appropriate next year, especially in the second quarter.
In addition, Caixin Securities pointed out that from the historical law, from December to January of the next year, the market usually has a cross year market, and the index performs better. The reason behind this is that at the end of the year and the beginning of the year: (1) China is in an intensive period of major conferences, and the market’s expectations of good policies are rising; (2) Commercial banks provide more credit, the market liquidity is usually good, and the capital interest rate tends to fall; (3) The market is temporarily in a vacuum period of economic data and performance data, and the impact of the performance side on the index subsides, but the boosting effect of the capital side and the emotional side on the index heats up. Near the end of the year, the range of market shocks tends to converge first and then expand. It is expected that this year’s market index will gradually get out of the cross year market driven by funds and emotions. As a popularity indicator, securities companies may be the first to start, and the high boom new energy and technology sector is expected to relay. Subsequently, as the market enters the disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the impact of the performance end on the index will gradually increase.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that it is expected that China may be in the stage of marginal decline in inflation and marginal weakening of economic prosperity in the fourth quarter. At this stage, it is suggested to allocate assets from the following four main lines: (1) financial sector. At present, the valuation of track stocks has far exceeded that of other sectors. There is a strong demand for make-up in the financial sector that underestimates the value, especially in the securities sector. (2) Antiperiodic plate. In the fourth quarter, the marginal demand for exports and inventory replenishment weakened, and the counter cyclical sector may perform under the cross cyclical macroeconomic regulation and control. (3) A plate with prosperous production and marketing. The current performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation and computer. (4) Downstream consumer segment. It is expected that the scissors difference between PPI and CPI will converge in the future, and the consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the next half year. Focus on downstream consumer sectors with price increase expectations, such as food and beverage.
