Today (December 6), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The Shanghai index showed a strong performance in the morning and rebounded around 3620 points. The Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index adjusted the pattern obviously. In the afternoon, the stock index accelerated the adjustment rhythm and further dived in the late afternoon. Finally, the Shanghai index not only lost 3600 points, but also closed at the lowest point of the whole day; Finally, the gem index fell by more than 2%, and the Shenzhen composite index fell by nearly 1%.
In this regard, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that A-Shares may continue to be more resilient than overseas markets, and the policy expectation of internal stable growth is still a more key factor leading the market performance. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market. The end of the year to the beginning of next year may be an important window for policy reinforcement, and the market performance may gradually tend to be positive. According to the industry allocation suggestions, the allocation continues to tilt towards the policy expectations and the middle and lower reaches.
At the same time, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that the nodes at the end of the year need to participate more actively in the cross year market and seize the opportunity of restlessness in the spring of the first half of the year. In terms of allocation opportunities, first, the growth direction is to allocate the new energy vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage and semiconductor industries, in which it is necessary to tap the opportunities for industry chain segmentation, such as the improvement of the profitability of photovoltaic middle and downstream components; Second, the direction of consumption, structural opportunities, and focus on the improvement of automobiles along the boom and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry benefiting from the rebound in prices; The third is the financial direction. With the restlessness moving forward in spring, we can pay attention to the startup opportunities of securities companies.
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I. brokerage concept
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that it focuses on the main line of wealth management and leading securities companies with undervalued value. ① The market is generally worried about the macro-economy. In this process, the more the top-down logic of the securities sector is developed, and the market gradually forms the consensus of “playing from high to low”, the more attractive the valuation of the securities sector is. ② At present, the core component is the long-term growth of securities companies α The three core: the subdivided industrial chain under the wealth management business, the derivatives with growth space against overseas capital intermediaries, the investment banking business under the registration system, and a series of expansion businesses such as asset management, M & A and reorganization. ③ The market boom is considerable, the overall three quarterly report data of securities companies perform well, the superposition of market data continues to be verified, and the Beijing stock exchange and other policies are intensively issued. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that alpha factor is expected to become the dominant factor, and large public offering and market making transactions will affect the performance of bond business in 2022. Although the market activity and market situation are expected to remain high in 2022, under such a high base, beta factors are difficult to bring large marginal incremental factors. On the contrary, the probability of asset management business and market making trading business dominated by public funds with strong alpha attribute will become the leading factor of incremental performance in 2022. Due to the asset light mode of public funds, the possibility of listing in a short time is relatively low, so the market focuses on securities companies holding equity of public funds. In view of this, we believe that the differentiation degree and probability of bond business performance will increase in 2022, and the model of “watching the sky and eating” will be unsustainable.
From the perspective of investment suggestions and investment targets, the institution further analyzed liquidity and policies, laying the foundation for the market of securities companies. From the perspective of lengthening the cycle, the trillion daily average turnover will become normalized, and the turnover center will continue to increase; At the same time, the policy dividends at both ends of investment and financing in the capital market will continue to be released, laying a friendly policy foundation.
Main line of derivatives: at present, the development of China’s derivatives market is still in its early stage. Compared with overseas markets, the market space of derivatives is huge, and the requirements for professionalism and institutional customer resources are very high, which is easy to form scale effect and high concentration, especially good for head securities companies. However, in view of the fact that the current relevant policies have not been finally implemented and the investment outlet has not yet arrived, It can be used as the subject of medium and long-term investment for continuous attention, and can be properly arranged on the left. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is recommended and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) is recommended.
The main line of large public offering is the main medium and long-term investment in the securities sector α However, due to the asset light mode of public funds, the possibility of listing in a short time is relatively low. Therefore, the market focuses on the securities companies holding the equity of public funds, facing the valuation improvement brought by sotp revaluation. It is recommended to Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , and pay attention to China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) .
2、 real estate development
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that the current market is in the combination of “fundamental bottom area” + “policy bottom”, the policy has released the signal of maintaining stability, and the credit side can be relaxed. According to past experience, the impact of the policy on the valuation elasticity of the sector is greater than the performance, and the valuation of the sector generally starts to rise in the area where the fundamentals are at the bottom. In the process of credit risk exposure, the industry accelerates the process of “survival of the fittest” and gradually clears up. After the risk events are implemented, the industry’s credit pattern will be reconstructed and the concentration will be further improved, which will benefit the head real estate enterprises with stable operation, low financing cost and healthy leverage structure.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) also mentioned that the current situation of sales cooling, financing control and capital supervision is difficult to change in the short term, and the pain period of the industry will continue. Three investment main lines in the post crisis era deserve attention. Main line 1: industry reform after the pain period. Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Resources Land and Longhu group are recommended.
Main line 2: long term business is paid more attention, and poly property, country garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, rongchuang service, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) are recommended.
Main line 3: value revaluation of high-quality real estate enterprises. With the rapid turnover of the industry from alienation and the decline in growth rate, the structural differentiation intensifies. High-quality enterprises with strong product strength and brand reputation are expected to usher in value revaluation. The institution further analyzed that although the policy tone has softened, the transmission takes time. At the current time, large and medium-sized real estate enterprises with stable operation and healthy finance will fully benefit from the relatively loose cash on hand, which can not only seize the opportunity of the land market to repair the income statement, but also obtain the recognition of financial institutions to ensure financing. Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) are recommended in December.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that real estate prices continued to decline. With the strengthening of the supervision of real estate pre-sale funds and the pilot reform of real estate tax in many places, it may have an impact on market expectations in the short term, and the long-term volume and price are determined by real estate fundamentals. In the face of the loosening of the third round of centralized land supply policy, the improvement of land acquisition enthusiasm of real estate enterprises and the improvement of real estate loan environment, we continue to recommend four reasons: 1) high-quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group and Longguang group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, Xincheng Yue service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, green city service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, etc; 4) Undervalued: Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co.Ltd(600649) , Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) etc.
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