Stimulated by the drop in the standard, today (December 7) the three major A-share indexes opened higher, then gradually weakened and further dived. Fortunately, near noon, the Shanghai index gradually stabilized and turned red, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index were relatively weak. From the disk point of view, bank stocks showed signs of support, real estate stocks led the rise, the market of “drinking, taking medicine and buying household appliances” made a comeback, power stocks also showed changes, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that in recent years, most of the “spring agitation” began to start in December, which was called “cross year agitation” in advance. We think it may be the same this year. On the one hand, the residual temperature of economy and profitability still exists, and the market fundamentals are still supported in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. On the other hand, the policy has gradually turned positive in the near future, which may also become a catalyst for the industry.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] home appliances
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that due to weak terminal demand and rising raw material prices, the traditional household appliance sector has experienced a double kill in performance and valuation since 2021. Looking forward to 2022, the marginal improvement space of the plate is clear, and it is expected to usher in an upward turning point. In addition, Baidian leader grasped the favorable opportunity of Baidian reshuffle period, accelerated channel reform, optimized intelligent manufacturing, improved terminal price, collectively repurchased shares in the capital market, strengthened employee incentive and demonstrated development confidence. It is recommended to pay attention to the Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) of Suite + scene sales driven by the accelerated layout of three winged birds, which conforms to the needs of consumption upgrading and has been preparing for high-end tracks for many years.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) it is expected that the capital turnover dilemma of the real estate industry will be gradually alleviated and the pattern will be accelerated and optimized. Feed back to the end of the household appliance sector and believe that the “dark moment” of the sector may have passed, and the reasonable and orderly release of rigid demand and improved house purchase demand will form a strong support for the growth of the sector. In the stage of stock competition, white electricity and kitchen electricity leaders with outstanding advantages in products and efficiency and continuous optimization are expected to take the lead in valuation repair.
The agency further pointed out that it is recommended to pay attention to the white power leaders Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) whose competition pattern is continuously optimized and whose profitability is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year. It is recommended to focus on the integrated stove leader Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) with continuous optimization of product structure and steady expansion of multiple channels, as well as the integrated stove leader Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) that comprehensively promotes the improvement of products, brands, channels and management. It is recommended to pay attention to the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leader Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) of sweeping with outstanding comprehensive advantages and building the second growth pole with the help of intelligent life appliances, as well as the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leader Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) of sweeping with deep technical barriers and rapid expansion of overseas channels.
According to China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities, the price pressure of raw materials is expected to weaken marginally in December, and the profitability of the industry will improve marginally. The valuation of the superimposed household appliance sector has been callback more this year, which has been below the historical average, and the allocation value is high. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: first, the traditional household appliance leader benefiting from the improvement of fundamentals; 2、 Focus on the leading industry segments with high prosperity. []
[Topic 2] power
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that China is currently experiencing a critical period of energy structure transformation. From January to September 2021, China’s installed capacity of wind power reached 300 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed capacity of power generation reached 280 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. New energy power is unstable. Strengthening the stability and security of new energy power through the power marketization mechanism has become an important part of China’s current energy reform mechanism. In October 2021, China raised the floating range of transaction price in the coal-fired power generation market to no more than 20%, which means the further promotion of the power marketization trading mechanism. We believe that promoting the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the development of new energy and promoting the consumption of new energy power in the way of market-oriented and reasonable competition has become one of the important contents of China’s energy digitization reform in the future.
Chuancai Securities pointed out that power construction is expected to enter a historical cycle and pay attention to the construction of smart grid terminal. In the context of the energy revolution, the power grid construction end will also be gradually upgraded, and the distribution network will become the core of the power system. On the one hand, the transformation of the power grid end can reduce the power grid loss to a certain extent. Since this year, under the background of “dual control of energy consumption”, some regions have limited production and power. Although since October, local production and power restrictions have been loosened, which has corrected the “one size fits all” production and power restrictions and “mobile” carbon reduction in some places, However, under the background of rising power demand, there is a certain pressure on the national power supply, and reducing the power grid loss will save power resources to a certain extent; On the other hand, promoting the digital transformation of power grid and applying cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of things and other technologies to the reform and upgrading of power grid will greatly improve the efficiency of energy services.
Anxin Securities said that on November 24, the central Deep Reform Commission proposed to promote the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the transformation of energy structure and orderly promote the participation of new energy in market transactions. On the same day, the State Grid issued the inter provincial power spot trading rules, proposing that all power generation types and enterprises can participate in inter provincial power spot trading, and encouraging inter provincial green power trading. The inter provincial power spot market adopts the clearing mechanism of centralized bidding, and the unified bidding of coal-fired power generation, nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic and other power sources. Under the high coal price, the transaction price of wind power and photovoltaic is expected to rise, so as to improve the profitability of new energy power generation. []
[theme III ] real estate development
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, or a better investment time point, the core lies in the marginal adjustment of policy and the enhancement of the expectation of marginal change of profit margin photographed by three batches of concentrated soil. However, it still takes time for market confidence to recover, and sales may gradually recover steadily in the second quarter of next year. For the real estate sector, policy optimization and adjustment is still the logic of valuation repair brought by policy adjustment in the short term.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that the current market is in the combination of “fundamental bottom area” + “policy bottom”, the policy has released the signal of maintaining stability, and the credit side can be relaxed. According to past experience, the impact of the policy on the valuation elasticity of the sector is greater than the performance, and the valuation of the sector generally starts to rise in the area where the fundamentals are at the bottom. In the process of credit risk exposure, the industry accelerates the process of “survival of the fittest” and gradually clears up. After the risk events are implemented, the industry’s credit pattern will be reconstructed and the concentration will be further improved, which will benefit the head real estate enterprises with stable operation, low financing cost and healthy leverage structure.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that real estate prices continued to decline. With the strengthening of the supervision of real estate pre-sale funds and the pilot reform of real estate tax in many places, it may have an impact on market expectations in the short term, and the long-term volume and price are determined by real estate fundamentals. In the face of the loosening of the third round of centralized land supply policy, the improvement of land acquisition enthusiasm of real estate enterprises and the improvement of the real estate loan environment, we remain optimistic about the four reasons for the bottom of net interest rate of the real estate sector, real estate supply side reform, low position and low valuation. []
[theme four ] Baijiu
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) points out that the current wholesale price of Sanmao fluctuates around 2690 yuan, the inventory is very low, and the annual delivery will be completed around the end of the month; The price of puwu and Guojiao remained stable. At present, the market has price increase expectations for some wine enterprises. From the perspective of long-term sustainable development, the price increase still needs to be matched with channel control and brand strength. It is suggested to pay attention to the channel feedback after the price increase of puwu. The short-term proposal also focuses on the catalytic factors such as the good start of the Spring Festival. High end leaders and sub high-end reform targets with strong performance certainty are still recommended in the medium and long term.
Huachang Securities said that it should emphasize the Baijiu market, and choose the top end to accelerate Moutai and strong potential Fen Liquor, and recommend the theme of reform in the Yanghe River. The market demand for Baijiu in the next year is still controversial, but from the market performance, Baijiu terminal demand is stronger, and the channel is relatively healthy. The report has the spare power, and Q1 has more strong foundation than the other. Short term recommendations should be emphasized at the end of the year, including the dealer conference, the disclosure of Baijiu enterprises’ business plan in the coming year, and the preparation for the peak season.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that at present, maowulu is expected to complete the annual business objectives and enter the state of digesting inventory. It is expected that the Spring Festival will start well with a high probability of realization. Baijiu Baijiu, Baijiu, the high-end Baijiu, has strong barriers, business model has superiority, and the performance is expected to be more robust in 2022. The current valuation is in a reasonable position, and the market will be brought to the market in the short term or enjoy the valuation switch. In the medium term, the capital will be the first choice for the high consumption liquor. In the long run, the high-end liquor price will remain unchanged, but only in the short term, it will be suppressed by external factors. The core logic remains unchanged, and it is still a long-term optimistic high-quality core asset. []
