Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Wanlian Securities: the industry’s credit risk continues to release the valuation of the real estate development sector is low
Under the strict control of policies, real estate enterprises have been under great pressure. The credit risk of some real estate enterprises has been continuously exposed, which has a great impact on the market supply and demand expectations. It is expected that the fundamentals of the real estate industry will still be in the downward stage in 2022. At present, the policy has begun to correct the deviation. It is expected that the policy will be upward based on the principle of supporting the bottom and not stimulating. The valuation of the real estate development sector is low, and the industry credit risk continues to release. In the long run, the industry will accelerate the liquidation, and high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to two types of Companies: (1) financial stable high-quality real estate enterprises with central enterprise / state-owned enterprise background; (2) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”. []
Ping An Securities: medium and long-term industry bottom stabilization leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of policies
At present, the real estate industry is still facing downward pressure on fundamentals, and policy guidance is urgently needed to repair the confidence of market participants. The multi sectoral joint voice will boost market sentiment from both supply and demand. In the follow-up, under the tone of “focusing on stability”, more support measures are expected to be implemented, and industry financing, sales, land purchase and other behaviors will gradually return to normal. We believe that there is still room for short-term policy game, the medium and long-term industry bottoms out and stabilizes, and the leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of policies and stand out with comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , etc. []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : the real estate fundamentals are gradually bottoming out it is expected that the real estate sector will usher in a wave of market with high certainty
We believe that more vigorous marginal improvement policies will continue to be introduced gradually, and the real estate fundamentals will gradually bottom up. It is expected that the real estate sector will usher in a wave of market with high certainty. We believe that the short-term sound choice is the head state-owned enterprises with financing advantages and good reputation, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Vanke; It is also optimistic that high-quality private enterprises can reverse their plight, such as rongchuang China and Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . In the long run, we believe that real estate enterprises with contrarian sales growth this year are expected to usher in a new era in the future, and are optimistic about Greentown China, Jianfa international and China Jinmao. []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : at the end of this year and the beginning of next year or a better investment time point leading real estate enterprises will enjoy a higher valuation premium
We believe that at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, or a better investment time point, the core lies in the marginal adjustment of policy and the enhancement of the expectation of marginal changes in profit margin photographed by three batches of concentrated soil. However, it still takes time for market confidence to recover, and sales may gradually stabilize and rise in the second quarter of next year. For the real estate sector, policy optimization and adjustment is still the logic of valuation repair brought by policy adjustment in the short term.
In the medium and long term, with risk mitigation, industry consolidation will further promote the gathering of various resources to high-quality leading real estate enterprises. High quality leading real estate enterprises with smooth financing channels and outstanding comprehensive ability will enjoy a higher valuation premium. At the same time, they can pay attention to property management companies and transformed real estate enterprises with more medium and long-term allocation value. We suggest to pay attention to: 1) development sector: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Vanke A, Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Property sector: Country Garden service, Yongsheng life service, China Resources Vientiane life, xinchengyue service and Baolong business. []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : optimistic about the four reasons for the bottom of net interest rate in the real estate sector, real estate supply side reform, low position and low valuation
Real estate prices continue to decline. As many places strengthen the supervision of real estate pre-sale funds and the pilot reform of real estate tax, it may have an impact on market expectations in the short term, and the long-term volume and price are determined by real estate fundamentals. In the face of the loosening of the third round of centralized land supply policy, the improvement of land acquisition enthusiasm of real estate enterprises and the improvement of real estate loan environment, we continue to recommend four reasons: 1) high-quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group and Longguang group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, Xincheng Yue service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, green city service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, etc; 4) Undervalued: Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co.Ltd(600649) , Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) etc. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: reshaping the pattern of the real estate industry is good for state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises with moat
At present, the market is in the combination of “fundamental bottom area” + “policy bottom”, the policies continue to release positive signals, and the credit environment on both sides of supply and demand is gradually improved. According to past experience, the impact of policies on the valuation elasticity of the sector is greater than the performance, and the valuation of the sector generally begins to rise in the area where the fundamentals are at the bottom. The industry has accelerated the survival of the fittest in the process of risk event exposure, and reshaped the industry pattern, which is good for state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises with moat. We suggest paying attention to the leading stocks in the high-quality housing development industry: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) ; It is recommended to pay attention to high-quality property management companies: Xuhui Yongsheng service, Jinke service, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) . []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : “focus on stability” is still the main tone at present, the valuation and position of the real estate sector have been at a historical low
Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “real estate loan concentration management” and “two concentration of land supply” will restrict both ends of supply and demand. The wind direction has not changed, and “stability first” is still the main tone, and the space for large amplification is narrow. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. Looking back, the low base effect subsided, the Q4 fundamentals were under pressure, and the supply and demand of the industry were limited, which aggravated the disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. Suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc. []
Shanghai Securities: Matthew effect gradually appeared in the silver age three types of real estate stocks in the later stage deserve attention
The Matthew effect gradually appeared in the silver age, and three types of real estate stocks deserve attention in the later stage: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low interest rate financing costs and relying on state-owned enterprises to continuously obtain land in the first and second tier cities, such as green city China and Longhu group; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the “two concentration” land policy and have strong land hook ability, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Baolong real estate, etc; (3) Leading enterprises in the property management industry and enterprises that layout high-quality segments of the property management industry, such as country garden service, xinchengyue service, China Resources Vientiane life, Baolong business and Xingsheng business. []
