The overall rise of construction outperformed the market, and all segments Rose: this week, the Shenwan construction index closed at 2180.9 points, with a significant increase over last week, outperforming the market. The industry’s average price to book ratio was 0.9 times, up 0.1 times from last week. All segments rose, of which civil construction rose by 4.6%, the largest increase; Decoration sector rose 1.1%, the smallest increase.
Pay attention to the recent introduction of green building related policies in many places. BIPV is an important development direction: Recently, Shanghai, Xiangyang, Beijing and other places have successively issued green building related policies. Distributed photovoltaic power generation (BIPV) has been mentioned many times as an important way to develop green buildings. Many provinces and cities require to speed up the promotion and popularization of BIPV. Among them, Shanxi Province has clearly stipulated the proportion of photovoltaic power generation that can be installed in the total roof area of plant (warehouse) houses, party and government organs, scientific research office buildings, schools, hospitals and other public buildings as well as commercial buildings, which is conducive to promoting the implementation of distributed photovoltaic power generation policy. BIPV has the dual functions of power generation and building materials. It is an important development direction of green building. Compared with bapv, BIPV has more advantages in safety, viewing, installation convenience and economy. In June this year, the state issued relevant policies to comprehensively promote the development of roof distributed photovoltaic. According to our calculation, during the “14th five year plan” period, the market scale of BIPV is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan, and there is a certain room for decline in costs, with good development prospects. It is expected that enterprises in relevant chains will benefit in the long term.
Infrastructure investment fell year-on-year, while real estate investment fell slightly: in October, fixed asset investment was 7.1 trillion, a decrease of 2.4%, of which the completed investment in infrastructure and real estate development was 1.8 trillion and 1.2 trillion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 4.8% and – 5.4% respectively. In October, real estate and infrastructure investment continued to decline year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline of real estate investment expanded compared with September. In infrastructure construction, the investment in power, transportation and public utilities was 0.34 trillion yuan, 0.73 trillion yuan and 0.74 trillion yuan respectively. The investment in electricity and public utilities declined year-on-year and decreased slightly, while the investment in transportation increased steadily year-on-year, with a month on month increase of 12.9%. Since June 2021, Hainan, Zhejiang, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places have issued the comprehensive transportation plan for the 14th five year plan, which is expected to drive the transportation investment to continue to increase.
Both commencement and completion fell year-on-year, and real estate sales fell year-on-year: in October, the planned land construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities totaled 70 million square meters, with a decrease of 46.7%, and the average transaction floor price was 4023 yuan / square meter. The construction, completion and sales areas were 140 million square meters, 60 million square meters and 130 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 33.1%, – 20.6% and – 21.7% respectively. In October, the land transaction area decreased significantly year-on-year. The new construction data decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. The completion data decreased year-on-year after the rapid growth from May to September, but increased significantly month on month. Recently, many departments have released signals of loose real estate policies, emphasizing “stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations”. It is expected that the sales area and sales unit price of commercial housing will stabilize for a long time. Key recommendation
It is recommended to focus on the leader Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) of prefabricated architectural design, and it is recommended to pay attention to the main risks faced by the ratings of Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) of steel structures and industrial buildings whose demand is expected to increase under the recovery of manufacturing investment
Risk tip: manufacturing investment slowed down, the promotion of prefabricated buildings was less than expected, and macro liquidity tightened.
(BOCI Securities)
