Stimulated by the favorable conditions of lowering the standard, today (December 7) the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher across the board, fell rapidly at the beginning of the session, and accelerated the diving. With the strength of blue chips, the Shanghai index stabilized, rose and turned red, while the gem index was relatively weak; In the afternoon, the stock index continued its shock consolidation, the Shanghai index rose again at the end of the day, and the decline of the gem index narrowed further.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose 0.16% to 3595.09 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.38% to 14697.17 points; The gem index showed a weak trend, with a decline of 1.09% to 3368.78 points.
From the disk point of view, the market is still uncertain, and the structural market will continue. While paying attention to the overall risk, we can focus on the individual stock market from bottom to top. In terms of industry, airports, real estate, electric power, wine making, tourist hotels, etc. led the increase; In terms of subject stocks, Fujian Free Trade Zone, rental and sale rights, super brands, St plate, green power, etc. rose higher.
In terms of capital, the central bank announced on December 7 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China carried out RMB 10 billion reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on December 7, 2021, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.20%. In view of the maturity of RMB 100 billion reverse repurchase today, the people’s Bank of China has realized a net return of RMB 90 billion.
hot plate
Top 10 gainers in industry sector
Top 10 industry sector declines
Top 10 gainers in concept sector
Top 10 decline in concept sector
individual stock monitoring
Top 10 net inflow of main forces
Top 10 net outflow of main force
northbound funds
southbound fund
message plane
1. According to the Huaxia times, by the end of the year, the economic growth roadmap for the new year is gradually emerging. On December 6, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2022. As the foresight of the central economic work conference, the conference stressed that next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability.
2. According to the news of the securities times, the reporter learned from several sources that the refinancing rates for agriculture and small loans have been reduced by 0.25 percentage points since December 7, 2021, and the refinancing rates for three months, six months and one year after the reduction are 1.7%, 1.9% and 2% respectively. This is more than a year later, the people’s Bank of China once again lowered the interest rate of refinancing for agriculture and small loans.
3. According to interface news, China’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of November reported US $3.2224 trillion, with an estimated US $3.2063 trillion. At the end of November, China’s gold reserves reported 62.64 million ounces (about 1948.32 tons), unchanged from last month.
4. According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, China’s total import and export value was 35.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 22% year-on-year and 24% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the export was 19.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, an increase of 25.8% over the same period in 2019; The import was 15.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, an increase of 21.8% over the same period in 2019; The trade surplus was 3.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.
institutional view
For the current market, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the RRR reduction basically confirms that the liquidity level can give strong support before the first quarter of next year. In addition, we judge that the growth in December will show a weak stabilization pattern, so we can have higher expectations for the cross-year market. On the one hand, RRR reduction will help maintain a reasonable and abundant environment for macro liquidity, which will become an important support and foundation for the cross year market; On the other hand, in addition to the post placement of special bonds in 2021 serving the cross cycle, the RRR reduction indicates that additional cross cycle policies begin to be implemented. More cross cycle adjustment policies such as the front of fiscal policy in 2022, the relatively loose monetary policy in the first quarter and the adjustment of real estate financing end are expected to be introduced one after another, so as to boost the market risk appetite. The implementation of RRR reduction has strengthened the cross year market. It is suggested to actively participate in and grasp the cross year market.
The agency further analyzed that the RRR reduction indicates that there is more than loose liquidity, which forms a strong support for further pulling out the main line of growth and valuation. In the future, it may be necessary to see the relative decline of interest rate level. RRR reduction has an obvious catalytic effect on the financial and real estate market in the short term. In terms of market allocation opportunities across the year, we focus on three directions: first, we are ushering in the third stage, pulling out the growth main line of the valuation market, and paying attention to the new energy vehicle industry chain, new energy, wind power, energy storage, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy and semiconductors; Second, the consumer sector, which is expected to continue to make up for the boom, pays attention to automobiles, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; Third, infrastructure and finance benefiting from steady growth, real estate with marginal changes in regulatory policies, etc; The theme focuses on opportunities such as military industry and digital currency.
However, Huaxin Securities pointed out that the RRR reduction was good yesterday. The central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15. This RRR reduction is a comprehensive RRR reduction, which releases about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds. The market liquidity is expected to be marginal loose, but the range may be weaker than that in July. From the perspective of the market, the marginal easing of liquidity has been expected, and the market may not be sensitive. On the whole, the RRR reduction plays a role in delaying the decline in the short term, and can not change the market decline and find new support.
In terms of operation, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that due to the RRR reduction, all sectors of the market as a whole may have some opportunities to actively intervene appropriately. In the medium and long term, there are still good opportunities for the new energy sector. Through green power trading, China’s increasingly abundant new energy such as wind power and photovoltaic will be optimized, which is conducive to promoting the consumption of new energy, serving the development of new energy, expanding the access scale of new energy, gradually building a new power system with new energy as the main body, and accelerating the realization of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, Therefore, it is worth paying continuous attention to new energy.
In addition, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities said that the essence of “restless market” is valuation expansion. It is expected to “sail” for growth. It is suggested that there are three directions for Trend Investment: first, maintain a optimistic cycle with growth attributes; Second, emphasize the scientific and technological transformation attribute of the meta universe and firm layout; Third, gradually allocate necessary consumption varieties that not only have defense attributes but also benefit from “consumption degradation”. In terms of specific configuration in December, combined with the industry rotation “five dimensions” scoring system, the first choice is: power equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, chemical industry and electronic semiconductor; Second choice: nonferrous metals (rare metals), machinery and communication.
