Today (December 7), stimulated by the favorable reduction of the reserve requirement, the three major stock indexes opened higher, followed by a shock and fall back to cover the gap of short jump. The performance of the Shanghai index was relatively strong, while the correction trend of the gem index was more obvious; In the afternoon, the stock index continued to fluctuate, the decline of the gem index narrowed, and the Shanghai index turned red smoothly.
In this regard, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that in recent years, most of the “spring agitation” began to start in December, which was called “cross year agitation” in advance. We think it may be the same this year. On the one hand, the residual temperature of economy and profitability still exists, and the market fundamentals are still supported in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. On the other hand, the policy has gradually turned positive in the near future, which may also become a catalyst for the industry.
At the same time, the agency further analyzed and grasped the two main lines of cross year agitation. This year’s “spring agitation” may be “cross year agitation” in advance, which may have a significant impact on the annual income, which is worth grasping. The investment direction concerns two main lines: the consumption line concerns the Baijiu medicine with definite higher level, and the consumption stimulus policies and consumer goods under the price increase. The main line of steady growth focuses on the themes of traditional infrastructure (machinery, building materials, construction), new infrastructure (wind power, photovoltaic) and Rural Revitalization.
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I. food and beverage
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) believes that there are three main lines for food and beverage investment next year: the first is that the demand will be better than this year. The damaged industries or channels this year may have opportunities for improvement next year, such as catering industry chain, prefabricated vegetables, leisure food with supermarkets as the main sales channel, etc. Second, the expected polarization of consumption will continue, but this will be eased compared with this year, and will support the demand for high-end and high-end baijiu. 3. Under the cost pressure, the performance of enterprises with the ability to transmit cost pressure to the downstream will be improved.
The agency further analyzed that the overall demand for food and beverage will be better than this year, and the fundamentals of the liquor industry will continue to maintain a steady and steady trend. Baijiu Baijiu will continue to boom. The demand for dairy products is still good, and the price of raw milk may see an inflection point in the middle of next year. The observation of competition has become the key to judge whether the profitability of dairy products can continue to strengthen; The condiment industry will further destock. With the further recovery of the catering industry, the condiment industry will gradually embark on the road of recovery next year; In addition, the field of rapid growth of new consumption also deserves attention. New tracks such as prefabricated dishes will still maintain rapid growth and are expected to become high growth tracks next year.
For liquor, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that Baijiu is our most promising industry. Consumption shows strong resilience and beer continues to be high-end. (1) looking forward to 2022, we think that Baijiu is still the best sub industry with certainty. Although some companies controlled goods in the fourth quarter, which may have an impact on the report performance, from another point of view, these companies will make a good start to the Spring Festival in 2022. Because of the change of income structure, the ratcheting effect of Baijiu consumption and the trend of concentration increasing, Baijiu consumption shows strong toughness, especially the high-end liquor. Baijiu focuses on deterministic growth varieties and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) , and focuses on Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) . (2) The beer industry will continue the high-end trend. Enterprises with advantages in product portfolio, sales channels, brand publicity and operation efficiency are more likely to win the competition for high-end beer and wait for the recovery of demand. It is suggested to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) and China Resources beer.
For the food industry, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) further analysis shows that the dark time has passed. Pay attention to the dairy leader in the short term and look forward to a year. There are opportunities for leisure, quick-frozen and soft drinks. (1) High end white milk and low-temperature white milk are favored by consumers because of their nutrition and health. The change of consumption habits will promote these categories to maintain high growth. In the short term, there are many leading opportunities for dairy products, the competition pattern continues to improve, and the performance release power is strong. (2) Seasoning demand is expected to improve quarter by quarter, so we need to pay close attention to the changes of competition pattern. (3) Quick frozen food has benefited from the C-end of the epidemic for 20 years and gradually returned to normal in 21 years. It pays attention to the growth opportunities of subdivided tracks, such as Cantonese quick frozen. (4) For snack food, companies will continue to adjust and improve in 2022, focusing on the effect of price increase and adjustment. (5) Focus on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) , Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , and pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) .
II. Electric power
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that China is currently experiencing a critical period of energy structure transformation. From January to September 2021, China’s installed capacity of wind power reached 300 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed capacity of power generation reached 280 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. New energy power is unstable. Strengthening the stability and security of new energy power through the power marketization mechanism has become an important part of China’s current energy reform mechanism. In October 2021, China raised the floating range of transaction price in the coal-fired power generation market to no more than 20%, which means the further promotion of the power marketization trading mechanism. We believe that promoting the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the development of new energy and promoting the consumption of new energy power in the way of market-oriented and reasonable competition has become one of the important contents of China’s energy digitization reform in the future.
Chuancai Securities pointed out that power construction is expected to enter a historical cycle and pay attention to the construction of smart grid terminal. In the context of the energy revolution, the power grid construction end will also be gradually upgraded, and the distribution network will become the core of the power system. On the one hand, the transformation of the power grid end can reduce the power grid loss to a certain extent. Since this year, under the background of “dual control of energy consumption”, some regions have limited production and power. Although since October, local production and power restrictions have been loosened, which has corrected the “one size fits all” production and power restrictions and “mobile” carbon reduction in some places, However, under the background of rising power demand, there is a certain pressure on the national power supply, and reducing the power grid loss will save power resources to a certain extent; On the other hand, promoting the digital transformation of power grid and applying cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of things and other technologies to the reform and upgrading of power grid will greatly improve the efficiency of energy services.
Anxin Securities said that green power policies are frequent and continue to be optimistic about new energy power generation. It is suggested to pay attention to different types of green power targets according to risk preference: 1) stable performance and undervalued value, and China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) is preferred; 2) High performance growth, no drag on coal power performance: China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) ; 3) Coal power performance is dragged down, but the new energy assets in the body are underestimated: Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Resources Power, Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) .
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