The cost reduction of wind power drives the demand display, and the industry is moving towards firm growth. After the land wind rush installation, the short-term is gentle, and the overall installed capacity presents a gentle trend. From January to October 2021, the installed capacity of new wind power is 19.19gw, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The cost reduction drives the bidding price to continue to decline, and the downstream demand is activated. In September this year, the average bidding price of 3MW in the whole market dropped to 2410 yuan / kW, a decrease of 25.8% compared with the same period last year. In 2021q1-3, China’s wind power public bidding reached 41.8gw, a year-on-year increase of 116.6%. Superimposed on the accelerated parity trend of sea wind projects, it is conservatively estimated that the Chinese market is expected to welcome 50-55gw of installed capacity next year, and the average annual installed capacity of China’s wind power industry is expected to exceed 54gw during the 14th Five Year Plan period, The compound annual growth rate is expected to exceed 15%. Global wind power demand is expected to usher in low-carbon resonance. We speculate that the average annual installed capacity of global wind power in 2021e-2025e is expected to exceed 110gw. It is suggested to pay attention to the “repair + growth” leader (bearing, casting + spindle, submarine cable, tower, etc.) in the parts link of the wind power industry chain in the era of parity of the industry chain.
The photovoltaic supply-demand mismatch industry chain deepened the game, and the growth space gradually expanded. The shortage of upstream silicon materials due to capacity problems has driven the price of silicon materials to rise sharply: the price of polysilicon materials (dense materials) has increased from 84 yuan / kg at the beginning of this year to 269 yuan / kg at the end of November. The shortage of silicon inhibits the centralized demand, and the household and overseas show high growth. In the first three quarters of 2021, 25.56gw of photovoltaic capacity was newly installed in China, including 9.15gw of centralized photovoltaic power stations, a year-on-year decrease of 8.86%; Distributed photovoltaic power stations were 16.41gw, with a year-on-year increase of 89.45%. With the gradual implementation of the expansion of upstream silicon production, the shortage of raw materials is expected to be gradually alleviated. The demand for projects not fully launched due to price pressure in 2021 is expected to expand flexibly in 2022. We expect the global installed demand to increase to 190-210gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 25%. As the demand for centralized projects is expected to be repaired in 2022, the distributed and overseas markets are expected to maintain growth, and the profits of the industrial chain are expected to be transmitted downstream, it is recommended to pay attention to the industry leaders with excellent industrial chain pattern and tight supply and demand, or the companies with alpha in the subdivided track (inverter, integrated components, adhesive film, etc.).
Energy storage has entered a high-speed growth period, and the demand side is in full bloom. Energy storage is the best solution to solve the seasonal and fluctuation problems caused by the penetration of high proportion of renewable energy. In 2021, policies will drive the rapid development of the industry. Relevant policies point out that the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30GW by 2025, which defines the growth bottom line of national energy storage installed capacity. According to the application scenario, 1) China’s industry and Commerce: all industrial and commercial users enter the power market, superimpose and widen the price difference between peak and valley, highlight the economy of energy storage and surge in demand. It is estimated that the installed capacity of energy storage will be 11.53gwh in 2025, and the compound growth rate will reach 78.6% from 2021 to 2025. 2) China’s power generation side and power grid side: in order to reduce the impact of new energy on the power grid, the policy requires new energy power plants to be equipped with energy storage and peak shaving capacity with a power ratio of at least 15% for 4H. It is expected that the new installed capacity will reach 64.3gwh in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 37.5% from 2021 to 2025. 3) Overseas household storage: the high overseas residential electricity price and the demand for power stability promote the rapid growth of household storage. Chinese enterprises in the industrial chain have attracted much attention. It is expected that the global newly installed capacity will be 44.8gwh in 2025 and the annual compound growth rate of newly installed capacity will be 43.6% from 2021 to 2025. The high growth rate of the industry in 2022 is determined, and it is recommended to pay attention to the links with the highest value of the industrial chain (batteries, converters, etc.).
Investment proposal and investment object
Energy storage sector: it is suggested to pay attention to the battery and converter sectors with the highest value proportion in the energy storage industry chain. 1) Battery link: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; 2) Converter link: PCS suppliers of large energy storage power stations Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , PCS suppliers of industrial and commercial energy storage Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Sineng Electric Co.Ltd(300827) , PCS suppliers of home storage Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) . Photovoltaic sector: it is recommended to pay attention to the leading segments of the photovoltaic industry chain. 1) Photovoltaic inverter: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; 2) Integrated component Faucet: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ; 3) Rubber film supply link Faucet: Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; And 4) distributed photovoltaic faucets Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) . Wind power sector: it is suggested to pay attention to the “repair + growth” leader of parts in the parity era of wind power industry chain. 1) Imported substitute faucets for wind power bearing links: Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) and relevant wind power flange faucets Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; 2) Megawatt casting and spindle Faucet: Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) ; 3) High quality pattern leader of submarine cable link: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) ; 4) Tower link Faucet: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) .
Risk statement
The growth of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; The growth of wind power industry is less than expected; The transformation speed of energy structure is lower than expected; The growth of energy storage industry is less than expected; Changes in assumptions affect the calculation results.
（ Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) ）
