investment suggestions: we believe that China’s seed industry is in the process of accelerating the integration, the commercialization of GM has begun, and the industry pattern will continue to improve in the future. We recommend Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) with strong technical strength and GM first mover advantage, and the benefit target is Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) a leading corn seed enterprise.
the total grain output reached a new high, mainly due to the obvious increase of grain output; on December 6, the Rural Department of the National Bureau of statistics interpreted the grain production in 2021. The total grain output in 2021 was 1365.7 billion jin, an increase of 26.7 billion jin or 2.0% over the previous year. Among them, the output of rice, wheat and corn increased significantly. In 2021, the national grain output was 1265.5 billion kg, an increase of 32 billion kg or 2.6% over the previous year. Among them, the output of rice was 425.7 billion kg, an increase of 2 billion kg or 0.5% over the previous year; The output of wheat was 273.9 billion kg, an increase of 5.4 billion kg or 2.0% over the previous year; The output of corn was 545.1 billion kg, an increase of 23.8 billion kg or 4.6% over the previous year, while the output of beans decreased significantly.
affected by the sharp rise in corn prices , the sown area of corn will increase rapidly in 2021; In 2021, the sown area of grain in China was 1.503 billion mu, an increase of 33.2 million mu over the previous year, an increase of 2.3%. Affected by the sharp rise in corn prices, farmers’ willingness to plant corn has increased and their willingness to plant soybeans has weakened: the sown area of corn in China has reached 650 million mu, an increase of 30.9 million mu or 5.0% over the previous year; The sown area of soybean was 126 million mu, a decrease of 22 million mu or 14.8% over the previous year. The sown area of rice was 449 million mu, a decrease of 2.31 million mu or 0.5% over the previous year. Affected by favorable factors such as suitable soil moisture and better planting benefits during the sowing period, the wheat sowing area was 354 million mu, an increase of 2.83 million mu over the previous year, an increase of 0.8%.
the unit yield of maize has decreased, and the commercialization of transgenic technology is expected to accelerate; in 2021, the unit yield of grain crops in China was 387 kg / mu, an increase of 4.8 kg or 1.2% over the previous year. Affected by the flood disaster in Henan and other Huang Huai Hai areas, the per unit yield of corn in China was only 419 kg / mu, with the yield per mu reduced by 1.7 kg or 0.4% over the previous year. Therefore, transgenic technology is urgently needed to improve the ecological and economic benefits of corn planting: 1) by reducing the losses caused by corn borer and slime worm, increasing corn yield by 10% and reducing the use of pesticides by 80%; 2) By controlling the harm of corn borer, reducing the infection of corn with mycotoxins such as Aspergillus flavus and improving grain quality; 3) Herbicide tolerant maize can improve yield by controlling weeds, which is conducive to reduce labor cost and large-scale production of maize.
risk tips: policy risk, industry competition risk, natural disaster risk, etc.
( Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities Research)
