The medium and long-term trend remains unchanged, and the short-term valuation has entered the long-term investment range. At the current time point, the trend of overall consumption upgrading remains unchanged, the concentration of various sub industries is still gradually improving, promoting the profitability of leading enterprises, the scarcity of high-quality enterprises is still increasing, and the fundamental factors that medium and long-term industries can outperform the market have not changed. In the short term, we expect that the economy will continue to improve month on month in 2022, driving the recovery of food and beverage demand, and the price increase is expected to be gradually transmitted to ensure profitability; The expectation and implementation of equity incentive at the enterprise level will fully increase the potential energy for the company to move forward. The current food and beverage valuation (TTM) is about 42.6 times, down month on month, and has entered the range of long-term investment.
Baijiu plate: optimistic about the trend of high-end, focusing on the important direction of equity incentive. With the concept of "less consumption and better drinking" promoted by the consumption upgrading, the pace of Baijiu's high-end upgrading is accelerating, which is mainly reflected in the continuous expansion of the price range and the high-end price segment of the thousand yuan, and has maintained rapid growth, and the share of the middle and low price segment has decreased. Looking ahead, the high-end plate will continue to expand next year: 1) high-end Baijiu is continuing under the demand driven atmosphere. With the gradual upgrading of consumption, some high-end demand will also be upgraded, and the price belt will continue to expand. It is estimated that the scale of high-end liquor market will exceed 290 billion yuan in the next five years; 2) The upsurge of sauce and wine reached its peak in spring this year. After autumn sugar, the feedback channel has cooled down, and the consumption fever continues. High grade sauce and wine is particularly popular. It is expected that the sauce and wine industry will return to the high-quality development track next year and maintain double-digit growth in the next five years; 3) In 2022, the low base dividend of the secondary high-end segment has weakened, but multiple factors help the continuous expansion of the secondary high-end wine market. We expect the secondary high-end market to exceed 100 billion by 2022. Key concerns: 1) the secondary high-end continues to expand rapidly; 2) Recovery of regional sub high-end liquor enterprises; 3) With the successive implementation of equity incentive, the company is expected to continue to improve its governance ability. Core recommendations: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Laojiao, Maotai and shede are optimistic about Fenjiu and drunkards. It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal improvement of Gujing, Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Yanghe and Shunxin.
Other sectors: price increase transmission is the main line, driving the expected performance growth. 1) Beer: in the medium and long term, beer has entered the stock game era, and the improvement of product structure + price increase is expected to open the beer ceiling. Looking forward to next year, with the price increase signal released by 21q4 industry, it is expected to alleviate the pressure on the cost side and thicken the industry profit next year. Recommendation: Tsing beer, China Resources, heavy beer. 2) Dairy products: at present, the current round of milk price peaked at the end of August and began to fall. It is expected that the current round of milk price will fall slightly, and indirect price increases such as structural upgrading and reduction of promotion are expected to improve the profitability of the leader in combination with the decline of cost. Recommended: Yili, Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) . 3) Catering supply chain: the industry space is large and the pattern is scattered. Forced by the cost pressure, the leading market share is expected to increase rapidly. With the start of Q4 price increase + the gradual recovery of demand next year, the volume and price can rise together next year. Recommended: Anjing, vertical height, Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) . 4) Condiment: with the improvement of operation month on month, the consumer market has gradually warmed up, and the associations are moving towards normalization. The worst time point of the sector has passed. It is expected that the industry competition will be tight before and slow down next year. With the gradual conduction of Haitian price increase, we continue to be optimistic about the improvement of the share of the leading market. Recommended attention: Haitian, Qianhe, Zhongju, Fuling, Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) .
Risk tip: food safety risk, sluggish macroeconomic growth, lower than expected terminal sales, and lower than expected regional channel expansion process.
（ Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) ）
