Key investment points
Benefiting from the rising downstream demand, the shipment of semiconductor equipment remained high. From January to September 2021, the global semiconductor industry continued to increase. From January to September 2021, the global semiconductor sales totaled US $391.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 23.1%, of which the global semiconductor sales in September was US $48.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 27.5%. Semiconductor equipment shipments remained high. From January to September 2021, global semiconductor equipment sales reached US $75.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 45.46%. In September and October 2021, North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers' shipments reached US $3.72/3.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 35.6% / 41.3%. The high growth of the industry was mainly driven by the high demand for downstream 5g applications, artificial intelligence, cloud computing and so on. In the Chinese market, China's semiconductor sales from January to September 2021 were 136.94 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of + 24.8%; In 2021 1-9, sales of semiconductor equipment in Chinese mainland amounted to US $21 billion 450 million, up +56.46%, accounting for 28.5% of the total semiconductor equipment sales worldwide.
The capital expenditure on the repair of the wafer factory is good for the semiconductor equipment manufacturer TSMC, which raised the capital expenditure to US $30-31 billion in 2021, and announced that it will invest US $100 billion in large-scale production expansion in the next three years. TSMC's capital expenditure in the first three quarters of 2021 was US $21.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 53.6%. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) in the first three quarters of 2021, the capital expenditure was US $2.386 billion, a year-on-year decrease of - 45.8%, mainly affected by US sanctions, and the process of production expansion slowed down, of which the capital expenditure in Q3 was US $1.081 billion in a single quarter, a month on month increase of + 40.2%. We believe that the downstream demand continues to increase, the company will accelerate the implementation of capital expenditure, and Q4 capital expenditure will improve, which is good for equipment manufacturers.
The bidding of Chinese Fab manufacturers continues, and the bid winning rate of domestic equipment manufacturers has increased. Since September 2021, 1) Huali integration: a total of 8 new equipment have won the bid, including 1 domestic equipment. 2) Changjiang storage: 325 new equipment won the bid, including 105 domestic equipment, with a localization rate of 32%. 3) SMIC Shaoxing: a total of 141 new equipment won the bid, including 59 domestic equipment, with a localization rate of 42%. 4) Huahong semiconductor (Wuxi): 11 new equipment won the bid, and 4 domestic equipment suppliers won the bid. 5) Jita semiconductor: 19 new equipment won the bid, and 9 domestic equipment manufacturers won the bid.
It is optimistic that the cleaning equipment will take the lead in localization. China shuanglongtou will enter a rapid growth period. The technical threshold of the cleaning machine is relatively low. We think it is easier to take the lead in realizing full localization. The value of cleaning equipment accounts for about 5-6% in the semiconductor equipment market, and the proportion of cleaning machines in the whole line is expected to increase to 10% in the future. The global cleaning equipment market is dominated by overseas leading companies such as DNS, TEL, Lam. Sheng Mei semiconductor has achieved a breakthrough in domestic substitution in Chinese mainland. In 2019, the bid winning ratio (20.5%) was reached in mainland China. The number of cleaning equipment in 2025 is expected to reach 50% domestically. (1) Shengmei Shanghai started with cleaning equipment and has built a semiconductor equipment platform with both wet and dry process equipment. Under the wet process, the company has horizontally expanded advanced packaging wet & electroplating equipment; Based on the vertical furnace tube, the company realized the platform expansion of dry process equipment. In the early stage, it focused on LPCVD, then developed to oxidation furnace & diffusion furnace, and finally applied to ALD. In 2020, the company realized the sales of the first equipment, and further opened the growth space with the large volume of subsequent products. (2) Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) : the cleaning machine business has won repeated orders from core customers, the localization rate has increased, and the growth space has been widened. The company has the relevant technology to produce 8-12 inch high-order single wafer wet cleaning equipment and trough wet cleaning equipment.
Benefiting from the high prosperity of the downstream industry, the manufacturer of precision structural parts of semiconductor equipment welcomes the golden development period Suzhou Huaya Intelligence Technology Co.Ltd(003043) and is mainly engaged in structural parts of semiconductor equipment. Benefiting from the high prosperity of the semiconductor equipment industry, the penetration rate of domestic customers, the company's performance increases, and the company accelerates the expansion of production capacity. The annual output value of structural parts of the company is planned to be RMB 450 / 650 / 1 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023 (excluding assembly business), CAGR reached 50% in three years, fully releasing performance flexibility. The company has entered the leading supply chain systems such as Amat and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) . With high customer barriers and obvious scarcity, the company is the largest supplier of semiconductor equipment structural parts in China, with obvious advantages in production expansion and delivery; With the acceleration of equipment localization and the company's products have entered leading supply chain systems such as Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , the penetration rate of domestic customers is expected to continue to increase.
Investment suggestions: focus on recommending [ Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) ] domestic etching equipment leaders entering the global supply chain; Focus on recommending [ Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) ] wafer equipment leaders with multi service layout; It is mainly recommended that [shengmei Shanghai] [ Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) ] China's leading cleaning equipment is in the stage of capacity expansion; Recommend [ Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) ] semiconductor testing machine leaders, and constantly improve the product ecology; Focus on recommending [ Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) ] semiconductor test equipment platform companies; Focus on recommending [ Suzhou Huaya Intelligence Technology Co.Ltd(003043) ] leading suppliers of semiconductor precision metal parts; It is recommended to pay attention to new entrants of [ Suzhou Hyc Technology Co.Ltd(688001) ] semiconductor test equipment.
Risk tip: the expansion of Wafer Factory is less than the market expectation; The localization of equipment is less than the market expectation.
（ Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) ）
