Since the price of lithium ore in the upper reaches has soared this year, the price of lithium battery materials in the middle reaches has also soared. Battery enterprises that have insisted on raising the price for more than half a year are strongly willing to do so. Recently, some insiders in the lithium battery industry told China first finance and economics that China's first-line battery enterprises have recently informed customers that they can re agree on the price, and the quotation may be increased by about 20%.
However, in the context of the sharp rise in the cost of the upper and middle reaches and the price increase of the whole vehicle, the sales of the whole vehicle still maintained a high growth rate. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of electric vehicles in China reached 397000 in October, an increase of 11% month on month and 148% year-on-year. The penetration rate of electric vehicles was 17%, basically the same as that in September. The sales volume of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles exceeded 3 million this year. Chinese and foreign institutions interviewed by reporters believe that the sales volume may increase by 30% ~ 40% next year, reaching about 4 million units, and the penetration rate will reach 20%.
How do investment institutions view the differentiation of the prospects of various links (positive and negative electrodes, electrolyte, diaphragm, power battery, etc.) in the middle reaches of next year? What will be the investment pattern of the whole vehicle?
differentiation of lithium battery material investment pattern next year
The collective price rise of battery enterprises is expected, and lithium battery materials have increased significantly this year. Mei Wangqin, an analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network (SMM), told reporters that for example, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate rose from an average price of 63000 yuan / ton in January to more than 200000 yuan / ton in the near future, an increase of 228%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from 110000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 560000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 400%. The prices of the four main materials (positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and diaphragm) of lithium battery also increased. The price of ternary materials increased by 73%, lithium iron phosphate materials increased by 133%, and the price of electrolyte increased by 172%.
This price surge is mainly due to the soaring price of lithium ore and limited production capacity. The share prices of some lithium battery material companies also continued to soar this year. The agency expects that the price of lithium battery materials may still be high next year, but the imbalance in some links will be alleviated, and even some links need to worry about surplus after expansion.
"In 2021, the technical bottleneck limited the supply of diaphragm. Limited by the equipment capacity (diaphragm equipment mainly comes from Japan), a large number of capacity of Japanese enterprises were led by diaphragm Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) The production expansion of other enterprises is not so fast, so the diaphragm is still the most missing link among the four main materials, and the supply and demand of positive and negative electrodes will slowly return to an equilibrium level, and there may be some excess electrolyte. " Xu Tao, China equity investment manager of keywise, told reporters.
Another Asian QFII investment manager told reporters that the positive pole will expand its production capacity by 50% ~ 60% next year, while the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles is about 30% ~ 40%. It can be seen that the positive pole will be in surplus next year. This year, the profit of cathode has been raised, and next year, it is also facing the cost pressure of soaring lithium price. "At present, the cathode capacity expansion is indeed very fast. The industry is a multi oligarch and particularly decentralized pattern, and there are many new entrants. There may be 50% capacity growth in the next year, so the view next year is empty."
As far as the negative electrode is concerned, although the production is expanding rapidly, the graphitization of negative electrode materials is a high energy consuming industry, "In the context of dual control of energy consumption, the attitude of local governments is not very supportive. It needs the production capacity of industrial chain integration to get the approval faster. Graphitization may become the bottleneck of negative electrode production expansion in the future. The output will be about 600000 tons in 2021, with an increase of more than 200000 tons next year. With the tightening of supply and demand pattern, the profitability of the negative electrode industry should be stable at a certain level. Due to the separation of graphite chemical process from the former The back-end production process, equipment investment and production time are large. Most manufacturers choose outsourcing production. At present, most manufacturers choose to layout the integration of negative electrode graphitization production in low electricity price areas, so as to improve the self supply ratio of graphitization and reduce the graphitization cost. " Said the above QFII investment manager.
Li Kunlun, a mining analyst at UBS, told reporters, "From November 18 to 19, we visited Ulanqab development and Reform Commission, Kaijin new energy and Inner Mongolia Xingfeng ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) subsidiary). Kaijin and Xingfeng said that from August to October, the power load was only 50%, but the power consumption was close to full load after mid and late October. Kaijin said that the electricity price increased to 0.37 yuan / kWh compared with last year (last year's electricity price was 0.29 yuan / kWh) 。 Xingfeng also said that the new capacity of 50000 tons had been ready for production by the end of September, but it still needed the energy-saving review and approval of the development and Reform Commission of the autonomous region. In addition, Xingfeng said that nearly half of the graphitization production line has been changed from crucible furnace to box furnace (power consumption can be saved). "
For the electrolyte and lithium hexafluoride sulfate with soaring prices this year, the above QFII investment manager said, "unlike the non renewable lithium mine with long construction cycle, the above chemicals have no obstacles to production expansion and low energy consumption. The expansion of production capacity next year is obvious, and the price will fall, so the view is pessimistic." However, SMM believes that due to the high technical threshold and the concentration of increment to the head, the production capacity of lithium hexafluorosulfate is expected to be gradually released in 2022.
The industry consensus is that although the production capacity of diaphragm may be limited by equipment next year, the imbalance will not be as obvious as this year.
UBS said that individual stocks are optimistic about Enjie and putailai, because the tight supply-demand relationship between diaphragm and negative electrode industry will further support the rise of material prices. Considering that the self supply rate of raw materials is higher than that of the same industry, we are also optimistic about the leading enterprises of electrolyte (Tianci / Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ).
lithium battery price rise is imperative
When all materials of lithium battery go up, the cost of lithium battery also continues to rise. SMM data show that the cost of conventional 523 square ternary cell increased from 0.5 yuan / wh in January to 0.84 yuan / wh in November, an increase of 63%. The cost of square lithium iron phosphate cell also increased by 62%.
Mei Wangqin said that in previous years, the cost of battery cells decreased year by year, and increased by more than 50% this year, but the price adjustment of battery enterprises is less this year, and most orders still maintain the pricing at the beginning of the year. However, the overall contradiction between supply and demand of battery materials remains unresolved next year. For example, under the influence of the supply of lithium carbonate in Qinghai Salt Lake in winter and the slow speed of mine expansion, the overall supply and demand is unbalanced, and the price is expected to remain high next year.
"The price of lithium battery materials is expected to remain high next year, and the cost of lithium battery is still difficult to control. In order to ensure the normal operation of raw material supply enterprises, the price rise of battery enterprises is also necessary. In order to ensure the smooth completion of next year's production scheduling plan, car enterprises are also more likely to accept the price rise." She said.
Recently, the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) with the strongest ability to control the cost of the industrial chain has also been said to have increased its price. Previously, several power battery enterprises have sent price increase letters, including Byd Company Limited(002594) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Zhuo Neng new energy, etc.
Xu Tao believes that in terms of the investment pattern of lithium battery, in addition to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , other battery enterprises will also have opportunities, "Because the Chinese market is too large, many enterprises, whether energy storage batteries or power batteries, will slowly get involved. Automobile manufacturers will also cultivate their own secondary and tertiary supply to maintain the safety and stability of the industrial chain. At present, the production capacity of vehicle factories of some automobile manufacturers has not been fully completed, so they use Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) at the beginning." But in the long run, other lithium battery manufacturers will also have opportunities. "
the United States will be the largest variable in the vehicle market
Despite the pressure of rising costs, the consensus in the industry is that the sales of the whole vehicle market will maintain a high growth rate. China may increase by 30% ~ 40% on the basis of more than 3 million vehicles this year, or reach 9 million vehicles at the global level. Among them, the policy change of the United States will be the main expected difference.
"The automobile industry chain is very long, and the rise in raw material prices in history will be digested by all links." The above QFII investment manager mentioned to reporters, "Previously, Tesla has exceeded the market value of $1 trillion, so many emerging brands have little pressure on valuation. In addition, the short-term sales of major brands are not large, and they sell more than 10000 cars a month. They are still in a period of rapid growth, and they themselves are not very sensitive to the cost. Consumers may not be so sensitive to the price, especially those who buy the price range of 300000 ~ 400000 yuan Consumers of new cars are not so sensitive to the price increase of 10000 ~ 20000 yuan. "
Xu Tao mentioned that recently, the US House of Representatives passed the build back better bill. The bill proposes to invest US $555 billion to support clean energy development and deal with climate change, including the tax credit bill for new energy vehicles, which will be put to a vote in the Senate.
"As the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in the United States this year is less than expected, only hundreds of thousands of units, while the outside world has full expectations of sales volume in China, the United States will become the main source of poor expectations next year." He said.
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(First Finance)
