2021 is coming to an end. Looking back on the market of the whole year, it has always been regarded as a pharmaceutical track with “long slope and thick snow”. This year, the performance of fluctuation and differentiation has made investors “intertwined with love and hate”.
In fact, the performance of the sector also significantly dragged down the fund’s performance. Statistics show that as of December 3, 2021, the average loss of the whole market medical theme fund in the year was 1.1%, of which only 14 returned more than 10%, and 22 products decreased more than 10%, of which passive index products accounted for the majority.
however, after the adjustment, institutions have regained their confidence in the pharmaceutical sector recently. Some fund managers boldly said that they are optimistic about the performance of the pharmaceutical sector in 2022.
Since November, several pharmaceutical funds have been issued successively, covering various types such as medicine, medical devices, great health, innovative drugs and so on. Public information shows that the GF Shanghai Hong Kong Shenzhen pharmaceutical hybrid fund managed by Wu Xingwu, gf’s blue chip pharmaceutical fund manager, will be issued in mid December. Shanghai Securities News reporter also learned through research that a number of large fund companies are preparing to launch pharmaceutical theme funds.
pharmaceutical 2022 or turning
“This year is a year for medicine to digest the valuation, and there are multiple reasons behind the fluctuation.” The fund manager of blue chip medicine, a large fund company in Beijing, said that the repeated epidemic outside China, coupled with factors such as policy, liquidity, performance and valuation, made the return of the pharmaceutical sector unsatisfactory this year. But if you think the other way around, when all or part of these repressive factors are lifted, the overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector is very expected.
Guo Xiangbo, manager of Tianhong medical health and Tianhong pharmaceutical innovation fund, also believes that there will be a turnaround in the pharmaceutical sector in 2022. Now is a good opportunity for configuration, mainly for three reasons:
From the perspective of policy, in 2022, the introduction of pharmaceutical policy will enter a relatively stable period, and the repressive factors exceeding the expected policy are expected to be eliminated. The prosperity of the pharmaceutical sector will also rise and is expected to maintain steady growth, highlighting its comparative advantages over other sectors.
From the perspective of institutional allocation, the position proportion of public offering in pharmaceutical stocks in the third quarter has reached a new low since 2018, and the current position level may be lower. Driven by comparative advantages, it is a high probability event for public funds to increase the allocation proportion of pharmaceutical stocks next year.
From the medium and long-term prospects of the industry, the trend of population aging and the increase of government investment will form a long-term catalytic force for the industry, and the trend of long bull and slow bull in the pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue.
three directions deserve attention
Looking forward to next year, which segments will become the source of excess returns? A blue chip pharmaceutical fund manager said that the following three directions deserve special attention:
the first is scientific and technological innovation. the pharmaceutical industry is an industry in which supply creates demand. Innovation can continuously create new demand for the industry and bring sustainable growth to the industry. More specifically, internationalization will become the main theme of next year. We are more optimistic about innovative drugs, Innovation Medical Management Co.Ltd(002173) devices, innovative drug industry chain and life science upstream companies with global competitive advantages and the ability to seize the global market share.
followed by high-end manufacturing. engineer bonus brings the rise of China’s high-end manufacturing industry. The cdmo field is upgraded from the supply of intermediates to the field of APIs and even preparations, the high-end APIs and preparations are upgraded from the non-standard market to the standard market, and medical devices are more involved in the global competition. China’s pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is still in the early stage of structural upgrading, and the medium and long-term high growth is expected to continue.
and consumption upgrading. from a medium and long-term perspective, medicine has more incremental attributes than other consumer industries under the aging trend. With the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic on consumption, especially rigid pharmaceutical consumption, it is optimistic about the needs of women and children and brand traditional Chinese medicine with the ability to raise prices.
In addition, Hong Kong stocks are also the focus of fund managers. Fund managers believe that Hong Kong stocks have more pullbacks this year and the overall valuation level is relatively lower. They prefer to choose among the high-quality innovative drugs and high-quality medical service targets of Hong Kong stocks. With the internationalization of innovative drugs gradually on the stage next year, the performance of high-quality innovative drugs in Hong Kong stocks deserves special attention.
(Shanghai Securities News)
