The real estate sector finally breathed!
on December 6, the statement on real estate in the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee attracted much attention. "We should promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry."
Compared with the one sentence "promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market" on the real estate at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in December last year, there are three sentences on the real estate this time, with more ink, which shows the central government's attention to the current real estate industry. It is worth noting that "supporting reasonable housing demand" and "promoting a virtuous cycle of the real estate industry" are mentioned for the first time.
Affected by this, the A-share real estate sector ushered in a long-standing rise, Shenzhen Sdg Service Co.Ltd(300917) rose by more than 12%, Jinan High-Tech Development Co.Ltd(600807) , Tieling Newcity Investment Holding (Group) Limited(000809) , Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600638) , Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) limit, Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) rose by more than 7%, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) rose by more than 6%, and many ST shares in the sector also rose by the limit. Moreover, driven by the sharp rise of real estate stocks, construction machinery, household goods, construction, building materials, household appliances and other sectors have soared one after another.
support reasonable housing demand
"support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers" has two meanings.
"the main meaning is to meet the needs of reasonable housing. This formulation is generally a sign of policy warming." , vice president of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, told a broker's China reporters that the past formulation was "housing not speculation", "short-term not stimulating" and "curbing house price bubbles" and so on. "Reasonable demand of property buyers" is a loose expression.
The second meaning is to develop and support the commercial housing market. Yang Hongxu told the Chinese reporter of the securities firm that because the sales end of the current commercial housing market has shrunk sharply, developers have discount promotions, and developers have reduced the construction quality, including the overall lowering of standards in construction and installation, configuration and decoration, which are not conducive to meeting the demand for reasonable housing, so supporting the commercial housing market is actually supporting the supply side, Support developers to build better houses.
So, what is "reasonable housing demand"?
On December 3, in response to a reporter's question, a spokesman for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that at this stage, we should focus on meeting the mortgage needs of the first house and improved housing according to different local conditions, reasonably issue real estate development loans and M & A loans, increase support for affordable rental housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry and market.
it can be seen that the reasonable housing demand mainly includes the first suite and improved housing.
The improved housing should include replacement and first improvement. Yang Hongxu believes that multiple improvements should not be included. "To meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers, in fact, on the one hand, we should build a better house to meet him. On the other hand, we may reduce the cost and threshold for property buyers from the aspects of credit and taxation in the future."
promoting a virtuous circle in the real estate industry
"Promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry". On the basis of promoting the "healthy development" of the real estate this year, the word "virtuous cycle" was added for the first time. What is the meaning?
Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, told the Chinese reporter of securities companies that the circular chain of the real estate market includes land transfer, development and construction, financing and sales, completion and delivery. This meeting first mentioned the "virtuous cycle" of the real estate industry. The simple understanding is that the real estate cycle may not be smooth now.
First, the land supply cycle is not smooth. In the third round of land transfer, the phenomenon of streaming auction is obvious, including hot cities. Developers are not in high mood for land acquisition. They rely on state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and local urban investment platforms to support the land market.
Second, the development and construction cycle is not smooth. Due to the tight capital chain, banks are worried about risks, development loans can not fall, and developers are not enthusiastic about starting and accelerating construction.
Third, the circulation of new houses is not smooth. Affected by the debt default of real estate enterprises, the fear that the house will not be delivered, and the expected decline in house prices, buyers' buying sentiment has decreased.
Fourth, the circulation of second-hand houses is not smooth. Because of the high transaction cost, banks do not give loans, and the decline of second-hand housing transactions is more obvious, which affects the demand for house replacement and affects new houses.
"The poor circulation of the whole chain has led to the obvious decline of real estate and dragged down economic growth. Therefore, the policy began to dredge every link of the whole circular chain, including adjusting the policy of land transfer, reducing the threshold of land acquisition, increasing the investment of development loans, restarting M & A loans and reducing the transaction cost of second-hand housing." Li Yujia told Chinese reporters of securities companies that the most important thing is to increase capital lubricant to dredge the circular chain. The central bank's comprehensive RRR reduction is also aimed at this aspect.
Li Yujia believes that another reason for the sluggish real estate cycle is the decline of the cycle due to the recent spread of credit risk. Recently, the government's collective voice on the Evergrande incident and the easing of financial and credit policies are also aimed at unblocking the real estate cycle.
RRR reduction is conducive to the stability of the property market
in addition to the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, another heavy policy on December 6 is the central bank's RRR reduction. The central bank issued a notice to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15.
"The RRR reduction represents that the credit policy will be relatively loose." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said that at present, the main purpose of the overall RRR reduction policy is still to increase support for the real economy, especially small, medium and micro enterprises. However, the RRR reduction will inevitably bring about changes in the overall social capital. For the current real estate market, stability will become a trend.
What will be the impact of the RRR reduction and the release of 1.2 trillion funds on the real estate market?
Zhang Dawei believes that RRR reduction can release more low-cost long-term funds, which is conducive to reducing the capital cost of financial institutions, so as to reduce the financing interest rate of private enterprises and small, medium and micro enterprises. RRR reduction has great support for bank liquidity and helps to relax the subsequent bank loan policy. This RRR reduction must be positive for home buyers. Most of the buyers queuing for loans may accelerate their access to loans. For real estate enterprises, the reduction of reserve requirements will play a great role in alleviating the capital pressure in the real estate market.
Zhang Dawei also believes that the most stringent period of real estate loan policy has passed. The main reason for the fluctuation of the real estate market in 2021 is that the real estate credit, including development loans and mortgage loans, was significantly tightened in the second to third quarters, reflected in the regulation operation, and the overall market began to cool down significantly from the previous overheating. On the whole, September, as the most tense period of loans, began to ease significantly from October to November, and is expected to stabilize again in December. The backlog of housing loans will gradually be released in the first quarter of 2022.
The China Index Research Institute also expects that the improvement expectation of the industry environment will be further clarified in the future, the first house mortgage interest rate in some hot areas is still expected to be lowered, and the bank lending cycle will be further shortened; On the other hand, the rational issuance of development loans and M & A loans for real estate enterprises will also help individual real estate enterprises with greater short-term liquidity pressure to bail out. At the same time, the previously tight local policies are expected to usher in fine-tuning and improvement to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry.
For future market expectations, Li Yujia believes that the real estate market began to stabilize at the end of this year and rebounded slightly in the first quarter of next year. But it is only a slight rebound, not a reversal of the trend.
(brokerage China)
