The valuation of household light industry sector has been at the bottom of nearly a year; Under the favorable policy, the industry valuation is expected to be repaired.
Shenwan household light industry rose 2.61%
On December 7, the household light industry index rose 2.61%, ranking fourth in the increase of Shenwan secondary industry index. Among the constituent stocks, Guangdong Topstrong Living Innovation And Integration Co.Ltd(300749) rose 14.04%; Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) , Zhibang furniture, Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co.Ltd(002853) daily limit; Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.Ltd(603898) , gold medal cabinets and European furniture rose by more than 7%. The index has warmed up since November and has risen 6.19% so far.
The direct reason for the sharp rise in the sector was the announcement of the central bank's RRR reduction last night. The central bank said that in order to support the development of the real economy and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs, it decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that under the wide credit, the financing cost of real estate developers is also expected to be reduced and conducive to the willingness of new construction / land acquisition; The margin of local auction is better, and the confidence of real estate developers is enhanced. Household light industry leaders have built leading advantages in product, channel, supply chain, digitization and other dimensions, their own growth is highly deterministic, the share promotion logic is more smooth, and they continue to focus on it. early cause β High quality household assets that are very cheap under pressure may also be more flexible with emotional repair.
In addition, the recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has set the tone for next year's economic work. The meeting proposed that macroeconomic policies should be sound and effective, and continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Some analysts said that next year's monetary policy will be stable and loose, and continuous RRR and interest rate cuts will not be ruled out; In addition to aggregate monetary policy tools, the central bank may continue to guide structural "wide credit" next year, and the use of structural monetary policy tools will become the norm.
home sector or welcome valuation repair
On the evening of December 3, the party, the NPC and the CPPCC gave a voice on the recent heated Evergrande issue. The central bank said that "the risk of individual real estate enterprises in the short term will not affect the normal financing function of the medium and long-term market"; The cbcirc said that "focus on meeting the mortgage needs of the first house and improved housing, reasonably issue real estate development loans and M & A loans, and increase support for affordable rental housing"; The CSRC said that "it will continue to maintain the effective play of the market financing function and support the reasonable and normal financing of real estate enterprises".
Debang Securities said that previously, affected by the contraction of real estate policy, the valuation continued to be under pressure and at a low level. It is expected that the home industry is expected to usher in valuation repair opportunities. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase market share by virtue of brand and channel advantages and take the lead in benefiting from valuation repair. According to the statistics of securities times and databao, the latest rolling P / E ratio of household light industry index is 24.66 times, which has been at the bottom of nearly a year.
On December 6, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed the need to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that based on the lag effect of completion and household income and the stable expectation of real estate completion from 2021 to 2022, it is considered that the demand of the household industry in 2022 still has some support. Recently, the marginal improvement of the real estate policy statement, the bottom of the short-term policy may have appeared, pay attention to the valuation repair of the home sector, and continue to be optimistic about the increase of the share of the leading home market for a long time.
26 shares received high attention from institutions
northbound capital plus 7 shares
According to data treasure statistics, among Shenwan household goods concept stocks, 26 stocks have recently been rated by 5 or more institutions. European furniture, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) won the most rating agencies, with 32, 30 and 30 respectively; Since then, more than 20 institutions have participated in Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) .
Judging from the difference between the latest price of individual stocks and the consensus forecast target price, 28 stocks have more than 20% room to rise. Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) , Fiyta Precision Technology Co.Ltd(000026) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) , Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) ranked first, with rising space of 77.35%, 72.34%, 69.02% and 65.03% respectively; In addition, 12 stocks such as Yotrio Group Co.Ltd(002489) , Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) , Dare Power Dekor Home Co.Ltd(000910) have more than 40% room to rise.
In terms of capital, some concept stocks have been favored by leveraged funds or northbound funds in recent 10 days. According to the statistics of databao, as of the closing of December 6, 11 leveraged capital positions had been increased, and the increase of financing balance of Mclon Jewellery Co.Ltd(300945) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Shandong Yuma Sun-Shading Technology Corp.Ltd(300993) ranked first, with 102.48%, 33.92% and 13.98% respectively; There are 7 stocks that have been added to the North fund, with a larger range of Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) , Ue Furniture Co.Ltd(603600) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , and the increase ranges are 14.05%, 13.98% and 5.49% respectively.
(data treasure)
