On December 8, the auto parts sector set off a rising tide. The auto parts index closed up 2.66%. Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) rose 13.95%, Chengdu Xiling Power Science & Technology Incorporated Company(300733) rose 11.87%, Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300580) rose 11.22%, Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Limited Company(603335) , Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) , Changchun Yidong Clutch Co.Ltd(600148) , Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co.Ltd(002265) , Jiangsu Nanfang Bearing Co.Ltd(002553) and more than 10 individual stocks rose the limit.
Previously, due to the shortage of chips, the output of new energy vehicles was limited. With the arrival of the peak consumption season and the easing of the chip shortage, the automotive industry has entered the inventory replenishment stage. The wind auto parts index has risen sharply since the fourth quarter, with an increase of 24.26%, and the subdivided fields are also “bull stocks” frequently. Since the fourth quarter, car speaker concept stocks Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) have risen 163.61%, electronic control system concept stocks Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) have risen 88.72%, and hub motor concept stocks Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co.Ltd(603178) have risen 99.60%.
On December 8, according to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles increased strongly in November, with the sales volume reaching 378000, a year-on-year increase of 122.3% and a month on month increase of 19.8%. Well known car companies are also doing well frequently. As of November, Tesla Shanghai Super factory has delivered more than 400000 vehicles this year, reaching 413300 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 242%. In November, the total delivery volume of Xiaopeng automobile was 15613, which exceeded 10000 for three consecutive months, with a month on month increase of 54% and a year-on-year increase of 270%.
For some time, the market has accepted the medium and long-term optimistic growth prospect of new energy passenger vehicles. Huachuang Securities believes that the auto parts sector did not receive high attention before this round of rise due to its small market value and traditional business. Huachuang securities expects that there will be a potential release of 1 million backlog demand and 1 million inventory replenishment in 2022, and the growth rate of passenger car wholesale will increase by 17% and 11% in the first and second quarters of next year. Meanwhile, when the sales data goes up, the market will further raise the performance expectation and target valuation of individual auto parts stocks, and the potential income space of investment is expected to expand. From the perspective of growth logic and fundamental expectations, Huachuang Securities believes that there are still great opportunities for the auto parts sector.
Caixin Securities believes that new energy vehicles promote the upgrading of thermal management system, and the demand for downstream vehicles is expected to recover. The demand for air conditioning system, battery thermal management system and motor electronic control thermal management system of new energy vehicles is greater than that of traditional fuel vehicles. The value of single vehicle thermal management system is about three times that of traditional fuel vehicles. According to the calculation of Caixin securities, the global passenger vehicle thermal management market space will be 298.7 billion yuan in 2025, including 176.1 billion yuan of new energy passenger vehicle thermal management market space, with a compound growth rate of 40% in the next five years. It is recommended that Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile thermal management leading enterprises.
The rising trend of independent brands is also a continuous driving force to promote the take-off of domestic parts. Huafu Securities believes that China’s automobile production accounts for about 30% of the world. In terms of the output value ratio of complete vehicles and parts, China is about 0.8:1. Driven by the two wheels of “Tesla cycle” and “the rise of independent brands”, domestic parts are expected to usher in an investment window of 5 to 10 years. It is recommended that investors pay attention to Tesla industrial chain, intelligent cockpit, aluminum battery box, car audio and other segments.
(Shanghai Securities News)
