In December, the new monthly gold stocks of securities companies were gradually released.
As the essence of the monthly strategy of securities companies, securities brokerage shares have become a fixed column for many brokerages in recent years, and are also the investment vane of many investors every month.
according to the ranking of annual yield of gold stock portfolio of securities companies, the monthly yield of gold stock portfolio of Cinda securities has exceeded 50% this year, ranking first; Open source securities and China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) gold stock portfolio also ranked second and third with a yield of more than 45%; The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities ranked fourth with a yield of more than 40%.
Chinese reporters of securities companies also noted that, perhaps affected by the recent market style, some popular gold stocks have shown signs of “reverse indicators” in a certain sense in recent months.
securities companies released gold shares in December
Recently, the gold stock portfolio of securities companies was gradually disclosed in December. On the whole, the plate configuration of gold stocks of securities companies in December was relatively balanced, and the high boom growth plate and consumption plate were favored by many institutions.
reviewing the performance of gold stocks of securities companies in November, Cinda securities ranked first with a monthly return of 13.47%, followed by The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities with a monthly return of 12.79%, and the combined return of Shengang securities, Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) , open source securities and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) in November also exceeded 10%.
Compared with the gold stocks in November, Cinda securities continued to recommend Zhejiang Dun’An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) , Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) in the gold stock portfolio in December. Among them, Zhejiang Dun’An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) increased by 90.34% in November.
Some stocks were recommended by the broker, mainly in Baijiu, banks and non silver sectors. For example, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) was recommended by 13 securities companies this month, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) was unanimously recommended by 6 securities companies; Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) and other stocks were also selected into the December gold stock portfolio of five securities companies.
Anxin Securities believes that from the perspective of opportunities, the market is in a performance window period in December, some market funds tend to layout the high boom track next year in advance, and the market risk appetite is expected to improve. In terms of risk, the new variant strain may bring new variables to the epidemic situation. In terms of configuration, the first is to arrange the high boom track next year in advance, and the second is to improve the boom of downstream consumer varieties with reasonable valuation. Focus on photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, computers, the yuan universe, Baijiu, automobiles, express delivery and so on.
YueKai Securities believes that first, stick to the allocation opportunities of high boom and high growth sectors, and continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in high boom and high-end manufacturing represented by new energy and semiconductors; Second, focus on tapping high-quality low-end varieties, especially low absorption opportunities in large consumption sectors.
the portfolio of Cinda, Kaiyuan and China Merchants gold stocks performed well during the year
On the whole, the gold stock portfolio of securities companies has maintained a good winning rate since this year. Data show that among the nearly 50 securities companies that released the gold stock portfolio, 39 have achieved positive returns this year, accounting for about 76%. Considering that the CSI 300 index has fallen by about 7% this year, about 90% of the gold stock portfolio of securities companies has outperformed the CSI 300 index.
From the performance of gold stock portfolios of securities companies this year, as of the closing on December 1, Cinda securities, open source securities and China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) ranked among the top three. Specifically, Cinda’s monthly gold stock portfolio has achieved a yield of more than 50% this year. Open source securities and China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) gold stock portfolio have increased by more than 45%, and The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities also ranked fourth with a yield of more than 40%.
However, there are also some gold stock portfolio yields of securities companies. The gold stock portfolios of Galaxy Securities and Dongguan securities have fallen by more than 20% this year, and the Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) gold stock portfolios have fallen by more than 15%. Among large securities companies, the yield of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) gold stock portfolio during the year was also – 3%.
According to Kang Chongli, vice president of YueKai Securities Research Institute, the validity period of securities companies’ gold shares is one month, from the beginning of each month to the end of each month. Therefore, when selecting stocks, securities companies should not only consider the short-term performance of individual stocks, but also study and judge the medium and long-term trend. In addition to the fundamentals and valuation, the economic data and macro policies released at the end of the month will have an impact on the market trend next month.
According to Kang Chongli, gold stocks are the embodiment of the comprehensive research ability of the Securities Research Institute. Selecting gold stocks is to comprehensively use a variety of strategic research methods, analyze the main driving factors affecting the current market through general trend research and judgment, look for industries that may dominate in the future through industry comparison, explore recent theme investment clues through theme investment analysis, and select high-quality stocks with greater rising probability in the future in combination with timing method.
“copying homework” should also be rational
Specifically, at the stock level, it is true that some brokerage research institutes can select big bull stocks, but the number of gold stocks recommended by China’s major brokerage companies is often about 300 every month, which is not easy for investors to select bull stocks.
In other words, to what extent do securities companies’ gold stocks have investment reference significance, and can they really “point shares into gold”?
The answer may be counterintuitive. According to the data, especially in recent months, the market style has changed, and the winning rate of gold stocks of securities companies is also uncertain. In individual months, the probability of positive returns of all gold stocks in the whole market is even less than 50%.
According to the data, in the past four months (August to November), the average increase of all gold stocks in the whole market was + 4.95%, – 3.85%, – 3.85%, + 6.20% respectively, while the performance of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the same period was – 0.12%, + 1.26%, + 0.87%, – 1.56% respectively. In other words, on average, half of the months in the past four months have not outperformed the market benchmark. From the perspective of fluctuation, the monthly rise and fall of general gold stocks is between – 35% and 125%, and there are not a few gold stocks that fall more than 20% in a single month.
So what is the probability of buying gold stocks to obtain positive returns? From the data, the proportion of gold stocks with positive returns from August to November was 55.35%, 33.92%, 44.97% and 58.67% respectively. In other words, when the market index rose in September and October, the probability of buying a gold stock rising is less than 50%.
what is more worth mentioning is that, perhaps affected by the recent market style, the hot gold stocks in recent months show signs of “reverse indicators” in a certain sense.
In November, the two most popular gold stocks among securities companies fell one after another. A dairy leader recommended by 13 securities companies fell 8.91% in the same month, and a photovoltaic leader recommended by 10 securities companies fell 10.51% in the same month.
Looking ahead, four of the six gold stocks recommended by no less than seven securities companies fell in October; Among the 11 gold stocks recommended by no less than 4 Securities Companies in September, 8 fell; Among the 10 gold stocks recommended by no less than five securities companies in August, 7 fell.
Yin Yanji, director of Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) Research Institute, said in an interview with Chinese reporters of securities companies that in terms of comprehensively reflecting the brand and research ability of securities companies Research Institute, it is difficult to see products that are more intuitive and easier to quantify than gold stocks. In view of the fact that there are many people who value short-term returns in the market, if the performance of gold stocks has been relatively good, it also represents strong research ability.
Yin Yanji mentioned that the monthly gold stocks of securities companies are also unreasonable. First, gold stocks only show the short-term ticket pushing ability of the Institute; The second is the logic and continuity of the gold stock portfolio. Many securities companies replace almost all the gold stocks every month, but why individual stocks are transferred out of the portfolio has not been reasonably explained.
Investment is a lonely practice. For investors, instead of focusing on which targets are favored by securities companies, it is better to study the recommendation logic behind them. The wind direction of the market has been changing. When the market consensus is strong, investors often have to think in reverse.
In December, the latest research and judgment of securities companies was released! Configure 12 shares to enter the gold stock portfolio of multiple securities companies around these two main lines
Can monthly gold stocks of securities companies really “point stocks into gold”?
(brokerage China)
