Affected by the policy of dual control of energy consumption, the prices of basic raw materials such as liquid chlorine, liquid alkali and nitric acid have increased significantly. Manufacturers continue to refuse to quote and accept orders, the operating rate has not been improved, and the prices of most pesticide technical products have increased one after another.
most pesticide technical products
recent price increase
According to the Sino-Agri Leading Biosciences Co.Ltd(603970) official account, as of December 5th, the Sino-Agri Leading Biosciences Co.Ltd(603970) crude drug price index was 208.41 points, a slight drop of 0.48% compared with last month. The number of hundreds of products tracked last year rose 92% compared with last year, and 19% of the products increased last month, and 42% of the products were down. Herbicides rose month on month, while pesticides and fungicides fell month on month.
Compared with the same period last year, the price index of herbicide technical drugs increased by 168%. It is reported that despite the correction of yellow phosphorus price, the supply situation of glyphosate technical drug is still tight. Due to the shutdown expectation of the Winter Olympic Games, glycine is at a high level, and Chinese enterprises have basically not prepared goods. They quoted 84000 yuan / ton on December 5. The price index of pesticide technical drug increased by 69.2% year-on-year, and the market price of abamectin powder reported 760000 yuan / ton. The operating rate of pyraphid technical drug increased, and the market quotation last week was 180000 yuan / ton.
Industry insiders said that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for goods preparation, adding that the current industry inventory is low, and the pesticide price is expected to remain high.
On the demand side, the global pesticide market has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 4%, but the growth rate is affected by Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuations. The change of pesticide prosperity is affected by macroeconomic, industrial policies, weather and other factors. The global monetary easing and the increase of attention to food security after the epidemic have enhanced the global willingness to plant crops. Against this background, The global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) has ushered in a strong bottom recovery. The prices of corn and soybeans have risen all the way since June last year. At present, the prices are still at a high level. The improvement of planting income has also driven the growth of global demand for pesticides and fertilizers.
From the supply side, the production capacity has shrunk sharply since September this year due to the dual control of energy consumption. From the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, the supply side of the pesticide industry will continue to be under pressure from the Winter Olympic Games, the two sessions, the "2 + 26" air pollution prevention and control, and the supply side will be under continuous pressure, adding that the overseas production capacity will be limited due to the soaring cost of natural gas.
pesticide stocks since November
outperformed the market as a whole
According to the statistics of securities times · databao, there are 24 listed companies whose main business is pesticides in the A-share market, and the market value of these companies is generally not high. As of December 9, the overall market value totaled 188 billion yuan. The market value of six companies, including Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Adama Ltd(000553) , Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) , Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.Ltd(600389) , exceeded 10 billion.
Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ranks first in market value. The company is the largest enterprise in China's bionic pesticide industry. Its products cover pesticide categories such as pesticides, herbicides and fungicides. The output and operating income of pyrethroid pesticides have always ranked first in the same pesticide industry in China.
Since November, pesticide stocks have increased by an average of 14.06%. Individual stocks such as Nanjing Red Sun Co.Ltd(000525) , Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) , Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) , Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) led the growth during the period, and the industry leader Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) increased by 10.74% in total. During this period, Beishang capital increased its holdings of Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) , Adama Ltd(000553) and other three stocks by more than one million shares. According to the rough calculation of the average transaction price of the interval, Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) obtained an increase of 342 million yuan.
From the valuation level, as of December 9, the rolling P / E ratio of Shenwan pesticide index was 26.6 times, which was in the upper range of the bottom in the past 10 years. The latest rolling P / E ratios of individual stocks such as Hunan Haili Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600731) , Jiangsu Fengshan Group Co.Ltd(603810) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Shandong Cynda Chemical Co.Ltd(603086) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) , Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.Ltd(600389) , Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) are less than 20 times.
According to the consistent prediction data of more than five institutions, the institutions predict that there are five stocks such as Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) , Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002391) whose net profit growth rate will reach more than 15% in 2021. Among them, Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) the winner predicted that the net profit in 2021 would be 1.305 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 121.64%.
(Securities Times)
