At the end of the year, the “tail raising market” was hot. Under the motivation of falling bags, choose “Mao index” or “Ning combination”?
The bottom of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rebounded, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) share price returned to 2000 yuan , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) market value needs some time to surpass Maotai. After a long correction, “Maotai index” has rebounded slightly since December and outperformed the market. Do “Maotai” want the king to return?
wine enterprises raise prices before the annual price, Baijiu index approaching the high point
Recently, many Baijiu enterprises announced the price increase. According to relevant reports, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) or plans to announce at the end of the year, the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) plans to increase from 999 yuan / bottle to 1089 yuan / bottle; The invoice price of Jiannanchun’s high-end product crystal Jiannanchun will be increased by 20 yuan per bottle; At the end of 11, Shandong Jingzhi Baijiu Sales Co., Ltd. announced the announcement of the price increase of products, and decided to raise the invoicing price of several series products since December 1, 2021.
Manufacturers give various explanations for the reasons for the price rise, such as the shortage of products, the rise in the price of raw materials, etc.
The price increases of liquor enterprises have indeed boosted the share prices of listed companies. Securities times data treasure statistics show that as of December 10th, Baijiu index was at its all-time high, rising nearly 12% in December, and this week’s cumulative increase is over 6%.
“Maotai people” made a sharp correction in the middle of the year, and Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) was cut
Driven by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Baijiu stock, the index has increased nearly 5% since December. Among the constituent stocks, gainers accounted for nearly 80%. More than 10 stocks such as Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) increased by more than 10% in December, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) increased by more than 8%.
In fact, the “Mao index” began to adjust after hitting a record high in February this year. It fell by more than 16% in June and July. Many people have vivid memories of the sharp decline of various “Mao” in the middle of the year. According to data treasure statistics , from July 1 to November 30, the overall correction of “Mao index” was 13.25%.
Among the constituent stocks, more than half of them fell by more than 10%. The share price of Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) halved , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) fell by more than 30%, and the share prices of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) bucked the trend by more than 40%.
In terms of the reasons for the correction, huge profits were accumulated in the early stage, and the valuation was too high. For example, the P / E ratio of Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) with the largest decline was close to 200 times on June 30. After adjustment, the current P / E ratio returned below 100 times, and the valuation of Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) was also greatly discounted.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell from a high of more than 2600 yuan to more than 1500 yuan, and the share price retreated sharply. Professionals say that in the short term, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 15% annual profit growth and high static valuation are not recognized by the environment this year. Coupled with huge profit margins, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) share price retreat is reasonable.
who is stronger? The investment return of “Mao index” is better than that of “Ning portfolio”
It is noteworthy that during the sharp correction of “Mao index”, the performance of “Ning portfolio” was stronger. from July 1 to November 30, the range of “Ning portfolio” decreased by less than 1%, significantly outperforming the “Mao index”. therefore, some investors believe that the “Ning portfolio” regarded as the golden track has more investment value than the “Mao index” of core assets.
Is that true? In terms of market performance, the rise of “Ning portfolio” is weak, with an increase of only 0.57% in December, and the performance of “Mao index” has exceeded that of “Ning portfolio” this month.
From a fundamental point of view, Mao index component stocks’ latest median P / E ratio is less than 50 times, and the median P / E ratio of “Ning portfolio” in the same period is twice that of the former. in the historical low period, the median valuation of “Mao index” component stocks is only 30 times, but the low point of Ning portfolio is also about 50 times. Only from the perspective of valuation, “Mao index” is more attractive than “Ning portfolio”.
From the perspective of growth, the agency predicts that in terms of the median increase in net profit in 2021 , “Mao index” is less than 30%, and “Ning portfolio” is close to 50%. the growth performance of “Ning combination” is better than that of “Mao index”, which is one of the reasons why the performance of “Ning combination” has been relatively stable since July.
In terms of investment return, from 2019 to 2021 (estimated based on the forecast data in 2021), the return on net assets (ROE) of the constituent stocks of “Mao index” has exceeded 20% for three consecutive years, but the “Ning portfolio” has been lower than 20% . According to the forecast data of 2021, the median roe of the constituent stocks of “Mao index” reached 21.03%, and that of “Ning portfolio” reached 17.05%, which decreased significantly compared with the previous two years.
Overall, after the valuation, the “Mao index” is slightly better than the “Ning portfolio”, but it is undeniable that the two portfolios are relatively high-quality assets of a shares.
why overseas funds reduce their holdings of “Ning portfolio” component stocks
While paying attention to the investment value of ningmao portfolio, databao noted that Allianz China, the largest overseas Chinese equity fund, has reduced its holdings of constituent stocks of “ningmao portfolio”. In October, Allianz China A-share fund reduced its holdings of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) by 18.58% and 11.92% respectively, and Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) also reduced their positions to varying degrees. For the reduction of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the Fund said in the letter Phi material that it may be worried about the expectation of stock price overdraft.
Data treasure statistics show that the share price of “Ning portfolio” accounts for 85% of the constituent stocks above 100 yuan, 44% of the stocks above 200 yuan, and the lowest P / E ratio is close to 40 times and the highest is over 250 times. The reduction of the fund’s holdings and high valuation all reveal that the share prices of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and “Ning portfolio” component stocks have indeed risen.
This is also the indirect reason for the rise of large cap blue chips led by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . Analysts said that near the end of the new year, with the motivation of falling into the bag, the rotation of the plate will be alleviated, and defensive large-scale blue chips may usher in opportunities, but the main logic of the market will not change. It is expected to usher in the pattern of “ningmao” in 2022, and the performance of growth stocks and value stocks will be more balanced.
13 only undervalued ningmao shares, with roe exceeding 20% for three consecutive years
Whether institutions, professionals or even the stock god “Buffett”, stock selection attaches great importance to the indicators of valuation and return on investment. This is also the reason why Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) still enjoys much fund. After all, its 50 times valuation is not too high in the “Mao index” and the Baijiu plate. Superimposed on the upgrading of consumption and the imbalance between supply and demand, these stocks with relatively reasonable valuation and high return on investment will naturally become the meat and potatoes of all kinds of capital.
According to the statistics of databao, up to now, the roe in 2019 and 2020 is more than 20%, and the predicted roe in 2021 is also more than 20%. There are only 13 component stocks of the two major portfolios with the latest valuation less than 50 times, of which only Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) is selected in the “Ning portfolio”.
Since the beginning of this year, Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) have a large callback range, all of which have fallen by more than 25% since this year. Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) have the lowest P / E ratios, less than 15 times. According to the predicted performance of the organization in 2021, the net profit of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) and Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) in 2021 is expected to double.
Among these 13 stocks, more than half of them have been increased by going north since December, and the top ones are Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) .
(data treasure)
