Today (December 8), the three major A-share indexes opened higher. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, the stock index gradually fluctuated upward, and the performance of Shenzhen Component Index and gem index was significantly stronger than that of Shanghai index. On the disk, the “drinking” market made a comeback, with outstanding performance in military industry, auto parts, lithium batteries, rare earth permanent magnets, consumer electronics and other sectors, and the local profit-making effect soared.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) indicates that the overall pace of consumption recovery extends from mandatory to optional. Since the beginning of this year, the price of optional consumption has risen in response to the rise of the cost side. After the price rise, the price is rigid, the price of raw materials has a downward trend in 2021, the gross profit margin has room for improvement, or there is valuation repair due to the improvement of volume and price. Automobiles and household appliances are industries with sensitive raw material costs and backward demand this year. The industries with upward boom and relatively low valuation are preferred among the required consumption, including dairy products, beverages, condiments, chemical pharmaceuticals and biomedicine.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] military industry
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that attaching importance to the medium and long-term growth logic of military industry, this round of market is far from over. On the one hand, there is a big gap between China’s national defense strength and economic strength at the present stage. China needs a large number of new weapons and equipment to make up for its military shortcomings, and the national defense investment is expected to continue to grow. On the other hand, advanced military technology has spillover characteristics. The military technology incubated by military enterprises has great civil value and can be extended to many industries such as semiconductors, civil aviation, commercial aerospace, new energy, consumer electronics, smart cars and smart homes. There is a huge market space for both military and civil uses. Finally, in recent years, conflicts continue in some parts of the world, countries with weak military industry have strong demand for military trade products, China has a complete military scientific research and production system, excellent performance and competitiveness of military trade products, and its share in the international military trade market is expected to continue to increase. The military industry has a broad market space, and the super military industry is at the right time.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the current industrial capacity construction of the national defense industry is in a rapid climbing period, and the scale effect and equity incentive will continue to promote the improvement of industrial operation and release profit elasticity. Considering that in the military industry, products have the characteristics of small batch, multiple varieties and long cycle, and the release of new capacity is conducive to opening up the capacity bottleneck in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, matching the large-scale production of batch production models and the batch production nodes of new models, the whole industry will usher in the improvement of capacity utilization brought by the optimization of product structure (small batch and multiple varieties affect capacity allocation), At the same time, superimposed with the decline of marginal cost under the scale effect after the climbing of new products (including the reduction of fixed cost allocation and the decline of variable cost caused by manufacturing upgrading), the profitability of the industry will enter the track of continuous improvement on the basis of large volume.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that the growth rate of the military industry is second to none, with outstanding growth compared with other industries. In particular, 2021-2023 is the key to speed up the industry. The compound growth rate is expected to exceed 30%, and the growth rate of subdivided fields is higher. On the valuation side, the CSI military industry index is at the 54.55% quantile in the past five years. On the whole, the military industry has many investment opportunities in aviation, missiles, informatization and other fields, and still has high medium and long-term investment value. []
[theme two] Baijiu
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) points out that the current wholesale price of Sanmao fluctuates around 2690 yuan, the inventory is very low, and the annual delivery will be completed around the end of the month; The price of puwu and Guojiao remained stable. At present, the market has price increase expectations for some wine enterprises. From the perspective of long-term sustainable development, the price increase still needs to be matched with channel control and brand strength. It is suggested to pay attention to the channel feedback after the price increase of puwu. The short-term proposal also focuses on the catalytic factors such as the good start of the Spring Festival. High end leaders and sub high-end reform targets with strong performance certainty are still recommended in the medium and long term.
Huachang Securities said that it should emphasize the Baijiu market, and choose the top end to accelerate Moutai and strong potential Fen Liquor, and recommend the theme of reform in the Yanghe River. The market demand for Baijiu in the next year is still controversial, but from the market performance, Baijiu terminal demand is stronger, and the channel is relatively healthy. The report has the spare power, and Q1 has more strong foundation than the other. Short term recommendations should be emphasized at the end of the year, including the dealer conference, the disclosure of Baijiu enterprises’ business plan in the coming year, and the preparation for the peak season.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that at present, maowulu is expected to complete the annual business objectives and enter the state of digesting inventory. It is expected that the Spring Festival will start well with a high probability of realization. Baijiu Baijiu, Baijiu, the high-end Baijiu, has strong barriers, business model has superiority, and the performance is expected to be more robust in 2022. The current valuation is in a reasonable position, and the market will be brought to the market in the short term or enjoy the valuation switch. In the medium term, the capital will be the first choice for the high consumption liquor. In the long run, the high-end liquor price will remain unchanged, but only in the short term, it will be suppressed by external factors. The core logic remains unchanged, and it is still a long-term optimistic high-quality core asset.
Looking forward to 2022, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that Baijiu is still the best sub industry with certainty. Although some companies controlled goods in the fourth quarter, which may have an impact on the report performance, from another point of view, these companies will make a good start to the Spring Festival in 2022. Because of the change of income structure, the ratcheting effect of Baijiu consumption and the trend of concentration increasing, Baijiu consumption shows strong toughness, especially the high-end liquor. []
[Topic 3] auto parts
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that the automotive industry has entered the era of electric intelligence, and the competition pattern of the industry will be reshaped. Independent vehicles are at the global leading level in the field of electrification and intelligence. In the future, they will stand out in the competition and continue to be optimistic about the head independent vehicle enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Auto, etc; At the same time, the parts industry will usher in a new era in the downstream recovery and replenishment cycle. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the rise of domestic parts under the reform of electric intelligent industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that under the wave of “new four modernizations” of automobile, “software defined automobile” has become the general trend. Tesla and other new forces car companies have created a new business model. Compared with the traditional one-time profit from selling hardware, the replication cost of software is low and can be continuously upgraded. Under the software charging mode, with the increase of the number of users, the profit space of Tesla and other new forces car companies will continue to expand. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles, auto parts are also facing great changes in products, technologies, manufacturing methods and other fields. Under the trend of automobile intelligence and networking, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit continue to promote the upgrading of automobile electronics. In addition to automotive electronics, new forces such as Tesla also lead technological innovation in the fields of body and chassis, which will also bring new opportunities to the industrial chain.
Huafu securities mentioned that domestic parts enterprises will usher in a golden age of development. The reasons for the weak strength of domestic parts enterprises are that the core technology of fuel vehicles is backward, the supplier system of Japanese and European main engine manufacturers is relatively closed, and the strength of independent brand vehicle manufacturers is weak. With the accelerated penetration of intelligent electric, the core technology of the automotive industry is evolving, the supplier system is gradually changing, and the pattern of the main engine plant is expected to be reshaped. Driven by the two wheels of “Tesla cycle” and “independent rise”, domestic parts will usher in a golden age of development.
The agency further analyzed that auto parts are a large market with a scale of 100 billion yuan. Tesla cycle and independent rise resonate, and domestic parts are expected to usher in a 5-10-year investment window. []
[Topic 4] lithium battery
Open source securities mentioned that the next year is the third stage of upward cycle investment in new energy vehicles. The high-quality supply end of the lithium battery industry chain is expected to achieve a breakthrough, and the investment opportunities are reflected in the following aspects. (1) High barriers to long-term growth: batteries, diaphragms, negative electrodes, etc; Among them, the battery link will benefit from the loosening of upstream price margin, the improvement of downstream penetration and product innovation in the next year, which is in a good investment period. (2) Post cycle direction of prosperity improvement in 2022: energy storage, equipment, auxiliary materials, etc; Among them, the energy storage industry chain benefits from carbon neutralization and the rigid demand for clean energy. (3) New technologies are expected to achieve breakthroughs: 4680 battery, lifsi, etc; The product innovation led by these leading companies is expected to bring continuous cost reduction and safety improvement, so as to further open the future growth space of lithium batteries.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that the supply of lithium salt contracted in winter, but the demand continued to rise and the inventory was low, causing all parties to compete for supply. In winter, the output of salt lake at the supply side shrinks to a certain extent, and there is little supply increment; However, on the demand side, on the one hand, the lithium battery production schedule increases month by month, and the battery factory and midstream material factory gradually prepare goods before the year. On the other hand, the regional power restriction is gradually alleviated, and the demand is further released; At the same time, with the continuous rise of lithium price and the determination of storage nature since this year, the lithium salt inventory of traders and material factories has been gradually consumed, and the inventory of all parties in the industry is at a low level; With the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand, the spot price continues to rise, the contract price among large factories also rises month by month, and the lithium price is still supported and rising by the relationship between supply and demand.
The agency further analyzed that the global competition for lithium resources is intense, the contradiction between supply and demand is still tense, and the strategic attribute is strengthened to be independent and controllable. Under the background of high growth of large new energy industries, the difficulty and progress of lithium resource development are difficult to match the speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth, and high-quality resources are scarce. All parties in the industrial chain continue to increase the layout of lithium resources and smelters around the world. French Eichmann group and Qingshan industry restart the construction of lithium extraction plant in Argentina’s centenario ratones Salt Lake, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) compete for the assets of Millennium lithium Argentina salt lake. The global competition for resources is intense, reflecting the scarcity and importance of lithium resources. Independent control of lithium resources is the strategic demand of the new energy industry chain. []
