Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Huafu Securities: a large market with a scale of 100 billion yuan ! domestic parts are expected to usher in an investment window period of 5-10 years
Auto parts is a large market with a scale of RMB 100 billion. Tesla cycle and independent rise resonate. Domestic parts are expected to usher in a 5-10-year investment window. Suggestions: 1) Tesla industrial chain, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ; 2) Electrification, thermal management Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , automobile connector Cwb Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(605005) ; 3) Intelligent, intelligent cockpit pays attention to Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , intelligent driving pays attention to Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Shunyu optical technology, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel; 4) Lightweight, die castings focus on Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , aluminum automotive panels focus on Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , aluminum battery boxes focus on minshi group, Ling Yun Industrial Corporation Limited(600480) ; 5) Apple like industrial chain iteration, glass attention Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , lamp attention Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , car audio attention Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) . []
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : optimistic about the opportunities brought by Tesla industrial chain, automotive electronics and technological innovation
Under the tide of "new four modernizations" of automobile, "software defines automobile" has become the general trend. Tesla and other new forces car companies have created a new business model. Compared with the traditional one-time profit from selling hardware, the replication cost of software is low and can be continuously upgraded. Under the software charging mode, with the increase of the number of users, the profit space of Tesla and other new forces car companies will continue to expand. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles, auto parts are also facing great changes in products, technologies, manufacturing methods and other fields. Under the trend of automobile intelligence and networking, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit continue to promote the upgrading of automobile electronics. In addition to automotive electronics, new forces such as Tesla also lead technological innovation in the fields of body and chassis, which will also bring new opportunities to the industrial chain.
From the perspective of investment suggestions and investment targets, it is expected that the replacement demand will be superimposed on the transfer demand in 2022, and the sales volume of the industry will grow steadily; Under the background of gradual easing of chips and high callback of bulk raw material prices and sea freight prices, the overall profit of the industry is expected to improve. Looking for companies with stronger alpha attributes of parts and vehicles, it is expected that the profit growth rate of these companies will far exceed the industry average, and their profits and valuations are expected to resonate. It is suggested to pay attention to: complete vehicle: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Byd Company Limited(002594) ; Parts attention: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Jiangsu Rongtai Industry Co.Ltd(605133) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Shanghai Daimay Automotive Interior Co.Ltd(603730) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.Ltd(603960) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Cwb Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(605005) etc. []
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : electric acceleration + intelligent start to reshape the Centennial industrial pattern ! Two dimensions choose companies growing in order reconstruction
Electric acceleration + Intelligent start to reshape the Centennial industrial pattern. The global new energy automobile industry as a whole presents the dual characteristics of "electric acceleration + Intelligent opening". The trillion market has been opened, the traditional automobile enterprises have actively transformed, and the new forces of car manufacturing and technology Internet enterprises (Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, Dajiang, etc.) have accelerated their entry to promote the prosperity and development of the industry.
(1) Vehicle level: in the process of rapid capacity expansion of the industry, new power brands represented by Weilai make full use of Internet thinking and select tracks to break through. Baidu, Xiaomi and other new entrants are expected to build a late development advantage and usher in historic opportunities for their own brands, although the models are launched late;
(2) Parts level: with the development of electric intelligence and the reshaping of the whole zero relationship, there is a wide space for domestic substitution of independent parts suppliers. Some parts enterprises with strong technology R & D capability are expected to rise as the dragon head of global subdivided industries through globalization based on the Chinese market. At the same time, the entry of Huawei, Dajiang and other science and technology enterprises also injects sufficient imagination space into the future, and the serious imbalance between the status of China's vehicle industry and parts industry is expected to be alleviated.
In terms of investment suggestions, with the rise of new forces and the development of electric intelligence, the traditional automobile supply system has been reshaped. It is optimistic about the rise of medium and long-term independent parts manufacturers with the advantages of cost performance and rapid response. It is suggested to choose companies from two dimensions: products and customers: first, customers: they are optimistic about tbr (Tesla + Byd Company Limited(002594) + rivian) industrial chain; Second, product dimension: optimistic about electric intelligent incremental parts. []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : medium and long term optimistic about the rise of domestic parts under the reform of electric intelligent industry
The automotive industry has entered the era of electric intelligence, and the competition pattern of the industry will be reshaped. Independent vehicles are at the global leading level in the field of electrification and intelligence. In the future, they will stand out in the competition and continue to be optimistic about the leading independent vehicle enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, etc; At the same time, the parts industry will usher in a new era in the downstream recovery and replenishment cycle. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the rise of domestic parts under the reform of electric intelligent industry. The large investment opportunities in the parts sector should conform to the industrial trend. We comb the five investment directions in the field of new energy and intelligence from top to bottom: technology driven target Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) / / inbor, customer expansion target Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) / Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , domestic alternative target Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) / Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , new energy increment Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) / Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) / Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) / Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , and intelligence acceleration Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) / Foryou Corporation(002906) . []
Bohai Securities: in the future, China's intelligent electric vehicle market will present a diversified competition pattern
In terms of new energy vehicles, the sales volume of electric vehicles dominated by new forces and new brands disclosed in November reached a new high. We believe that under the expectation of double score assessment and the decline of subsidies next year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to reach a new high by the end of the year; Meanwhile, if the tax credit policy of up to US $12500 for electric vehicles and bicycles in the United States is subsequently passed in the Senate, it will significantly boost the sales expectation of electric vehicles in the United States. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the latest progress. To sum up, we are optimistic about: 1) China's entry into and binding with Tesla, Volkswagen and other international automobile enterprises, as well as companies with new car manufacturing forces and strong independent brand supply chain, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ; 2) Enterprises entering the supply chain of leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Panasonic, LG Chemical, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and ferdi battery, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) . In addition, we are optimistic about independent auto companies that continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
In terms of smart cars, the current cooperation between technology giants and car enterprises continues to advance. In the future, China's smart electric car market will show a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in China's smart car supply (such as aionvplus, Xiaopeng P5 / G9, Great Wall salon mechatron, etc.), the industrial development shows an accelerated trend. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: 1) thematic opportunities in Huawei's auto industry chain, Such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ; 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors will continue to increase, and the penetration rate of intelligent cockpit will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) . []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : the global prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to rise Chinese battery and material enterprises accelerate the introduction into the global supply chain
The wave of electrification continues, the global prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to rise, Chinese battery and material enterprises accelerate the introduction into the global supply chain, the supply and demand of some links are expected to improve in 2022, the competition pattern of cell, copper foil, diaphragm and other links is better, and new technologies promote the upgrading of the industrial chain; Maintain the industry stronger than the market rating.
In terms of power batteries, in the future, the production capacity of upstream scarce links is expected to be gradually released, superimposed with the expectation of battery price rise, and the profitability of enterprises is expected to be improved. In terms of midstream materials, the diaphragm is restricted by factors such as high process barriers and production equipment, and the supply and demand may continue to be tight; Copper foil is gradually developing to mainstream 6 microns and high-performance 4.5 microns, and the technical and equipment barriers continue; The graphitization of anode materials is expected to maintain a tight balance due to the influence of national energy consumption double control; Affected by the trend of high energy density and Tesla 4680 battery, high nickel ternary materials gradually narrow the gap with lithium iron phosphate, and are expected to benefit from the large volume of the U.S. market. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , beiteri, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , etc. []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : the automobile sector will usher in strategic allocation opportunities three main investment lines will be exposed
Optimistic about the continued growth of the automobile market. On the one hand, with the gradual easing of the epidemic in Malaysia and Bosch and other manufacturers increasing investment in chip production capacity, the impact of chip shortage is continuously improving. On the other hand, the rise of raw material prices and freight is expected to usher in marginal improvement in Q4. The limited capacity of Q3 of major main engine plants is expected to be gradually released. Driven by the superposition of inventory replenishment, the automobile sector will usher in strategic allocation opportunities. At the same time, we believe that this round of chip shortage will accelerate the reconstruction of the new pattern of the automobile market, continue to be optimistic about the accelerated rise of independent brands, and continue to be optimistic about new energy / new forces to seize the market share of traditional automobiles. We expect the year-on-year decline of Q4 China's automobile sales to narrow month by month, maintain a growth rate of about 10% month on month, and maintain a high growth rate of new energy sales. It is estimated that China's whole vehicle sales in 2021 will be about 26.1 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 3.4%, of which the sales of new energy vehicles will be about 3.43 million, and the annual penetration rate is expected to reach 13%.
Three main lines are recommended: first, complete vehicle: the revaluation of complete vehicle valuation brought by Tesla wave & brought by the cycle of new models α Opportunities, first Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , recommend Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) . Second, Tesla industrial chain: new energy vehicles are in large quantities, and the negotiated prices of core supply rise together. First Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , recommend Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , and pay attention to Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) . Third, intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: the change of business model brought by intelligence and the improvement of automotive electronics. Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) are recommended. []
Ping An Securities: old and new giants gather ! optimistic about vehicle enterprises with both scale effect and hematopoietic ability
The old and new giants gather, and the smart car has a stronger supply chain. With the concentration of the whole vehicle EE architecture, the value proportion of intelligent vehicle software will gradually increase, intelligent driving will gradually advance to a high level, and the application space of intelligent cockpit is broad. In the future, the incremental opportunities of automobile supply chain are mostly in key tracks such as high-precision sensors, master chips, domain controllers, software, comfortable personalized configuration and so on. With the expansion of smart car supply chain and the deep involvement of science and technology giants, the new industrial chain division and cooperation relationship of smart car will gradually take shape in the next few years. We are optimistic about the parts enterprises that are at the key track and have key barriers.
In terms of investment suggestions, we are optimistic about vehicle enterprises with rapid transformation, comprehensive brand matrix and both scale effect and hematopoietic ability. We strongly recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK), Geely Automobile (0175. HK), 2022 or Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) with obvious marginal improvement, and we suggest paying attention to the three new forces of vehicle manufacturing. Recommend suppliers Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) benefiting from the increasing penetration of electric smart vehicles; Software defines automobile acceleration, automobile computing power tends to be centralized, and the demand for computing power increases. The demand for software and hardware services such as domain controller and intelligent vehicle operating system will grow rapidly. It is strongly recommended to Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) and pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) . []
