Today (December 8), a positive line rose in the A-share market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher across the board. After a slight correction, the stock index gradually fluctuated higher, showing a pulse upward pattern. In the afternoon, the stock index was dominated by strong consolidation, accelerated the upward attack again in the late afternoon, and the stock index showed a strong performance all day.
In this regard, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the market style may correspondingly show a pattern of "big strong and small weak". When the policy force comes to an end, the "steady growth" transaction ends and the growth expectation gradually stabilizes, the market begins to look for sustainable growth opportunities, and the market style may return to the growth style at that time. We roughly estimate that this time point may be around the end of the first quarter of next year.
At the same time, Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that looking for sectors that are obviously suppressed or delayed due to epidemic demand this year, these industries have the space for valuation repair. Consumption recovery is a relatively definite direction, and there are a few value depressions in some high-end manufacturing industries.
plate:
1, Baijiu
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) points out that the current wholesale price of Sanmao fluctuates around 2690 yuan, the inventory is very low, and the annual delivery will be completed around the end of the month; The price of puwu and Guojiao remained stable. At present, the market has price increase expectations for some wine enterprises. From the perspective of long-term sustainable development, the price increase still needs to be matched with channel control and brand strength. It is suggested to pay attention to the channel feedback after the price increase of puwu. The short-term proposal also focuses on the catalytic factors such as the good start of the Spring Festival. High end leaders and sub high-end reform targets with strong performance certainty are still recommended in the medium and long term.
Huachang Securities said that it should emphasize the Baijiu market, and choose the top end to accelerate Moutai and strong potential Fen Liquor, and recommend the theme of reform in the Yanghe River. The market demand for Baijiu in the next year is still controversial, but from the market performance, Baijiu terminal demand is stronger, and the channel is relatively healthy. The report has the spare power, and Q1 has more strong foundation than the other. Short term recommendations should be emphasized at the end of the year, including the dealer conference, the disclosure of Baijiu enterprises' business plan in the coming year, and the preparation for the peak season.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that at present, maowulu is expected to complete the annual business objectives and enter the state of digesting inventory. It is expected that the Spring Festival will start well with a high probability of realization. Baijiu Baijiu, Baijiu, the high-end Baijiu, has strong barriers, business model has superiority, and the performance is expected to be more robust in 2022. The current valuation is in a reasonable position, and the market will be brought to the market in the short term or enjoy the valuation switch. In the medium term, the capital will be the first choice for the high consumption liquor. In the long run, the high-end liquor price will remain unchanged, but only in the short term, it will be suppressed by external factors. The core logic remains unchanged, and it is still a long-term optimistic high-quality core asset.
Looking forward to 2022, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that Baijiu is still the best sub industry with certainty. Although some companies controlled goods in the fourth quarter, which may have an impact on the report performance, from another point of view, these companies will make a good start to the Spring Festival in 2022. Because of the change of income structure, the ratcheting effect of Baijiu consumption and the trend of concentration increasing, Baijiu consumption shows strong toughness, especially the high-end liquor.
II. Automobile
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that the automotive industry has entered the era of electric intelligence, and the competition pattern of the industry will be reshaped. Independent vehicles are at the global leading level in the field of electrification and intelligence. In the future, they will stand out in the competition and continue to be optimistic about the head independent vehicle enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Auto, etc; At the same time, the parts industry will usher in a new era in the downstream recovery and replenishment cycle. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the rise of domestic parts under the reform of electric intelligent industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that under the wave of "new four modernizations" of automobile, "software defined automobile" has become the general trend. Tesla and other new forces car companies have created a new business model. Compared with the traditional one-time profit from selling hardware, the replication cost of software is low and can be continuously upgraded. Under the software charging mode, with the increase of the number of users, the profit space of Tesla and other new forces car companies will continue to expand. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles, auto parts are also facing great changes in products, technologies, manufacturing methods and other fields. Under the trend of automobile intelligence and networking, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit continue to promote the upgrading of automobile electronics. In addition to automotive electronics, new forces such as Tesla also lead technological innovation in the fields of body and chassis, which will also bring new opportunities to the industrial chain.
Huafu securities mentioned that domestic parts enterprises will usher in a golden age of development. The reasons for the weak strength of domestic parts enterprises are that the core technology of fuel vehicles is backward, the supplier system of Japanese and European main engine manufacturers is relatively closed, and the strength of independent brand vehicle manufacturers is weak. With the accelerated penetration of intelligent electric, the core technology of the automotive industry is evolving, the supplier system is gradually changing, and the pattern of the main engine plant is expected to be reshaped. Driven by the two wheels of "Tesla cycle" and "independent rise", domestic parts will usher in a golden age of development.
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