Baijiu fully and delightfully launched the great counter attack.
On Monday evening, the high-level meeting proposed to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment and enhance the endogenous driving force of development. This is another focus on consumption after last July. Liquor led the consumption sector rose, Baijiu Baijiu index surged over 4%, the entire plate market surged by 210 billion. So, has this plate once praised by the market as an immortal bird resurrected?
In addition, the energy storage plate also ushered in the limit tide. On December 1, the implementation plan for power purchase by power grid enterprises in Guangdong Province (for Trial Implementation) was approved, and the energy storage cost was included in the power purchase price for the first time. In fact, the costs of energy storage and pumped storage power stations and demand side response are shared by users in the form of auxiliary service costs. The scheme has been implemented since December 1 this year. Some securities companies believe that the running of energy storage business model is a major breakthrough and should be paid attention to.
In fact, another outlet seems to be brewing. Today, Deng Xiaogang, Vice Minister of agriculture and rural areas, said that recently, the State Council issued the "14th five year plan for promoting agricultural and rural modernization". It is expected that this plan may involve the construction of rural cold chain. On September 16 this year, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas also released such expectations. Today, Square Technology Group Co.Ltd(603339) limit; Yesterday, China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co.Ltd(001213) , Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) rose sharply.
Suddenly, there are more and more market opportunities. Does this mean that the cross year bull market should be opened?
Baijiu crazy
Today, A-Shares have made a turnaround. The three major stock indexes all rose by more than 1%, subject stocks blossomed at many points, the Shanghai index returned to 3600 points and recorded the largest one-day increase in three months, the Shenzhen Composite Index hit 15000 points, and the gem index recovered 3400 points. From the structural point of view, Baijiu rose to lead the major sectors, and the Baijiu index surged over 4%. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rose more than 4%, the share price returned to 2000 yuan, and the transaction amount exceeded 12.2 billion yuan.
What is the reason for the rise of Baijiu? Analysts believe that the main reason is that consumption returns to the sequence of economic stimulus tools. On Monday evening, the high-level meeting proposed to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment and enhance the endogenous driving force of development. This is another focus on consumption after last July. The high-level meeting in July last year proposed to continue to expand China's demand, overcome the impact of the epidemic, expand final consumption and create conditions for the upgrading of residents' consumption. After that, the consumer sector ushered in a rising market, which lasted until the end of the Spring Festival this year.
Caixin Securities pointed out that the Baijiu plate early pessimism has been fully digested, the market mainstream brand prices and stock benign, the company level or implementation of strategic adjustment or show the determination of change, to determine the industry is still in a healthy upward cycle. Across the board RRR cuts the market volatility and strengthens the market's price control. Based on the longer term development, the sub high end liquor companies have strong confidence in the operation. The macro level will take a comprehensive rectification and the rectification policy is strictly regulated. The industry development environment is expected to improve at a marginal level, and the Baijiu industry will remain optimistic next year.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) research report believes that since the beginning of the high-end Baijiu callback, its valuation has reflected the market's pessimism about economic growth, terminal demand pressure and policy uncertainty. Next year, the macro economic margin is expected to support the demand for Baijiu, and the price of 1000 yuan will be expanded.
energy storage plate welcomes major breakthrough
On December 1, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission approved the implementation of the implementation plan for power purchase by power grid enterprises in Guangdong Province (for Trial Implementation). The implementation plan points out that the agency power purchase price includes three parts: average on grid price, auxiliary service cost, protection of residents and allocation of new profits and losses arising from the stability of agricultural power price. China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that the running of energy storage business model is a major breakthrough and should be paid attention to. The energy storage sector also ushered in a trading tide today, and the energy storage index rose 2.56%.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) said that in the notice on matters related to organizing and carrying out agency power purchase by power grid enterprises issued by the national development and Reform Commission in October, it has been made clear that the home price = agency power purchase price + transmission and distribution price + government funds and surcharges, in which the agency power purchase price = average on grid price + auxiliary service fee + others.
The implementation of the Guangdong proxy power purchase implementation scheme has gone further in the national policy, making it clear that the auxiliary service fees include energy storage, pumped storage, demand side response and other fees, so as to promote the development of energy storage. Energy storage enters the agency power purchase price in the form of auxiliary service fee, which means that the energy storage business model is the first to run through in Guangdong.
With the large-scale penetration of new energy, it is urgent to strengthen the auxiliary service market. Due to the strong fluctuation of new energy output and obvious disturbance to power grid frequency, the demand for power grid frequency modulation has greatly increased. In the past, new energy enjoyed the frequency modulation service provided by traditional units, resulting in the rapid increase of primary frequency modulation of typical thermal power units in Shanxi power grid from 20-30 times a day to 700-800 times. The unit speed regulation mechanism was overwhelmed, affecting the operation safety.
The release of the Guangdong plan means that the smooth mechanism of energy storage cost is the first to run through in Guangdong, which is beneficial to the energy storage companies in Guangdong, and the shipment is expected to increase significantly.
there are new clues at the new air outlet
At the end of each year, agricultural stocks will not be absent.
On December 8, at the regular policy briefing of the State Council, Deng Xiaogang, Vice Minister of agriculture and rural areas, said that recently, the State Council issued the plan for promoting agricultural and rural modernization in the 14th five year plan, which put forward the ideas, objectives and key tasks of agricultural and rural modernization in the next five years. This is the first plan to integrate and promote agricultural modernization and rural modernization, which will be released in the near future.
So, what will be the content of this plan? Industry insiders believe that the cold chain may not be absent. Because the cold chain of agricultural and rural modernization is an indispensable link, and relevant signals have been released before.
According to the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas on September 16, in its reply to recommendation No. 7414 of the fourth session of the 13th National People's Congress, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas said that in the next step, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas will do a good job in the cold chain logistics planning, issue the national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) storage and preservation cold chain logistics construction plan during the 14th five year plan, and guide all localities to carry out the construction of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) storage and preservation cold chain logistics facilities in an orderly manner, Improve the low-temperature storage and transportation capacity of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production area. Through policy guidance and financial support, continue to organize and carry out Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) warehousing and preservation cold chain logistics construction, national backbone cold chain logistics base construction and other projects, and actively promote the construction of cold chain logistics infrastructure in producing areas.
In recent days, the cold chain has also moved, and today's Square Technology Group Co.Ltd(603339) trading limit. Yesterday, China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co.Ltd(001213) , Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) rose sharply, which may be a preview of the cold chain market.
is the cross year market unfolding?
the current market opportunities emerge one after another, so does it mean that the cross year market has begun? Analysts believe that there may be some variables.
First of all, from the perspective of capital, the data show that northbound funds have again made a substantial net purchase of 9.685 billion yuan, and the single day net purchase has continued to reach a new high since October 21, with net purchase for 6 consecutive days; Although foreign investors continue to buy, this market is not peaceful, and the trend of most small votes has gone bad. The most noteworthy point is that although it rose sharply today, the market did not increase in volume, but decreased by nearly 100 billion yuan. This means that there are not many incremental funds, but some funds may be shipped by rising prices.
Second, the market may expect two important actions from the central bank, namely, reducing MLF interest rate and LPR. But judging from the trend of national debt, this expectation is declining. Today, treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly and closed down slightly. The 10-year main contract fell 0.06%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.05% and the 2-year main contract fell 0.02%. If this expectation fails to materialize, the market may adjust.
Overall, the index may not be a problem, but the risk of individual stocks is not small. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) also believes that the growth style of A-Shares may be temporarily restrained. We will observe whether to return to "growth" around the end of the first quarter of next year. When the focus of the market turns to "stable growth", the growth style of some A-Shares that have significantly outperformed the market, high valuations, high expectations and not low positions may temporarily be relatively backward, and the market style may correspondingly show a pattern of "big strength and small weakness". When the policy force comes to an end, the "steady growth" transaction ends and the growth expectation gradually stabilizes, the market begins to look for sustainable growth opportunities, and the market style may return to the growth style at that time. It is roughly estimated that this time point may be around the end of the first quarter of next year.
(brokerage China)
