Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : high end liquor enterprises are long-term optimistic about high-quality core assets valuation or have reached a safer range
We have always stressed that the investment strategy in 2022 is based on “certainty”. The high-end liquor leading enterprises have strong barriers, the business model has the superiority, and the performance of the market is still strong in 2022. The current valuation is in a reasonable position, and the market is short or enjoying the valuation switch. In the medium term, the capital will be the first choice for high-end consumption Baijiu or the long term baijiu. The ability to raise prices of high-end Baijiu is still in short supply, but only by short-term external factors. The core logic remains unchanged, and it is still a long-term core asset with good quality.
Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu is Baijiu baijiu. We have been concerned about high-end liquor, and since the fourth quarter, we have been pushing strongly. “2022 of the liquor industry is the best leader in liquor industry”. The liquor sector is the first to promote high-end liquor. The high-end liquor is the industry leader with strong performance. “The spirit of the liquor industry is high, the liquor quality is high, and the emphasis is on the recommendation.” the period of high growth in liquor industry is at an end. The Baijiu Baijiu will enter the shift period of growth. “The rhythm of high-end liquor business is steady, waiting for the catalyst to be finished sometimes” indicates that the opportunity for the three consecutive weeks to highlight the high-end Baijiu plate is verified. We believe that the valuation of high-end liquor enterprises may have reached a safer range, and the performance certainty is relatively stable. They are high-quality core assets that are optimistic for a long time.
Considering the preparation of the Spring Festival and the upcoming distributors’ conference, and the wine companies have controlled the price increase, we expect Q1 to get a good start. The short-term Baijiu market will continue to improve. In the long run, we still maintain a cautious attitude towards the secondary high-end. If the economy goes down next year, the revenue growth of some secondary high-end liquor enterprises will slow down and can not support higher valuations. []
open source Securities: optimistic about the Baijiu plate in 2022! Focus on investment opportunities for high-end and high-end Baijiu
Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu is still in a high level, the development logic is clear, stock prices experienced a long time after the callback, the valuation entered a reasonable interval, the three quarter performance high-end and popular liquor generally meet expectations, the second high-end is no lack of bright expression, the catalytic event will drive the plate to start the repair market, we are optimistic about the 2022 liquor plate. Focus on investment opportunities for high-end and high-end baijiu.
In terms of investment targets, (1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) during the double festival, the increase in investment volume, combined with unpacking and other policies, led to an increase in short-term market supply and a moderate drop in prices, which was more conducive to the long-term sustainable development of Maotai liquor. The target of 10.5% increase in planned revenue in 2021 is likely to be completed. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) double section supply increased, the rated price was stable at 960-980 yuan, the channel inventory was low, and the dynamic sales were good. Considering the promotion of the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , it is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2021. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) the rapid growth shows the strong fundamentals of the company. The higher than expected point in 2021 will come from the progress of high-end products. Looking forward to the next three years, the company is still in the stage of rapid growth in revenue and performance brought by nationalization and product structure upgrading. (4) The price increase announced by Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The results of the third quarterly report also reflect the recovery trend of the company, and the recovery curve is relatively flat. Proposed layout and long-term holding. []
Ping An Securities: the second high-end Baijiu can be flexible. Focus on the two main lines of consumption recovery + price increase transmission
For Baijiu: Baijiu Baijiu, the high-end liquor steady progress, the second high-end liquor elasticity can be expected. Downtown pressure on the economy, the Baijiu stock market in 2021 experienced a deep adjustment. China’s Baijiu Baijiu is looking forward to 2022. We believe that the current trend of China’s more relaxed macro policies and consumption upgrading has made the liquor sector’s trend of growth possible. Among them: 1) the high-end liquor is affected by the number of China’s high net worth population, consumption will continue to increase, the head Baijiu enterprise is brilliant, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fundamentals are steady, and it is expected to increase the volume and price. The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) product matrix continues to be optimized, and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) continues to be large-scale, so there is a lot of room for improvement after the optimization of corporate governance; Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) equity incentive optimizes the organizational power and promotes the better development of the company. 2) Baijiu Baijiu liquor will benefit from the recharge of banquet consumption in the post epidemic era, and demand will continue to improve. The price of high-end liquor will increase and the upgrading of consumption will promote the price of the second high-end, and the market will be further opened. The growth of the performance of the second high-end liquor will continue to lead the Baijiu plate. 3) three or four line Baijiu enterprises constantly adjust their product mix, actively seek development path, and some companies are expected to highlight tight encirclement.
For the food sector: focus on the two main lines of consumption recovery + price increase transmission. Under the dual influence of low consumption and large inventory in the early stage, the performance of the food sector was weak in 2021. Since the beginning of the year, the PPI / CPI scissors gap has continued to expand, the sharp rise in commodity prices has pushed up the pressure on raw material costs of food enterprises, and the food sector ushered in a price rise at the end of the year. Looking forward to 2022, the food sector is expected to see bottom improvement under the recovery of consumption and price increase transmission. We are optimistic about beer and other sectors with better competition pattern and higher price increase transmission efficiency. Among them, we believe that under the trend of high-end beer, the transmission logic of price increase is the most smooth; The recovery of condiment demand is on the way, and the profit is expected to hit the bottom in 2022; As the competition in dairy industry slows down and the cost drops, it is suggested to grasp the investment main line of rising profitability in 2022; The long-term growth logic of quick-frozen food is clear, and with the recovery of demand, the profit pressure is expected to ease in 2022. []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : consumption shows strong toughness! Baijiu is the most promising industry
Baijiu is our most promising industry, consumption shows strong toughness, beer continues to high-end trend. (1) looking forward to 2022, we think that Baijiu is still the best sub industry with certainty. Although some companies controlled goods in the fourth quarter, which may have an impact on the report performance, from another point of view, these companies will make a good start to the Spring Festival in 2022. Because of the change of income structure, the ratcheting effect of Baijiu consumption and the trend of concentration increasing, Baijiu consumption shows strong toughness, especially the high-end liquor. Baijiu focuses on deterministic growth varieties and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) , and focuses on Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) . (2) The beer industry will continue the high-end trend. Enterprises with advantages in product portfolio, sales channels, brand publicity and operation efficiency are more likely to win the competition for high-end beer and wait for the recovery of demand. It is suggested to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) and China Resources beer. []
Bohai Securities: high-end and sub high-end Baijiu will show strong stability and performance elasticity
The food and beverage industry is expected to come out after a long term adjustment. High-end and sub high-end Baijiu will show strong stability and performance elasticity. The public goods will be open next year or out of Davies’s double price strike cycle.
On the plate side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market.
In terms of mass products, the upstream cost pressure may ease next year. At present, the beer sector still has a relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission, followed by dairy products.
With the opening of the price increase cycle in the fourth quarter, the overall margin of the seasoning sector is expected to improve. If demand stabilizes and picks up next year, the sector is expected to release performance elasticity. To sum up, we give the industry a “optimistic” investment rating and recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) . []
Securities: is optimistic about the development of Baijiu industry next year, is expected to usher in double of performance and valuation.
Fourth quarter Baijiu industry fundamentals stable, recent volume, price increases, equity incentives and other action concentrated landing, liquor enterprises in the coming year positive target, plate sentiment warming. We think Baijiu plate early pessimism has been fully digested, market level mainstream brand price and stock benign, company level or implementation of strategic adjustment or show the determination of change, to judge the industry is still in a healthy upward cycle. The high-end liquor enterprises have strengthened the control of market pricing in order to stabilize the industry fluctuation and based on the longer-term development. The sub high-end liquor enterprises have strong business confidence. At the macro level, they have ushered in the correction of comprehensive standard reduction and strict regulatory policies in the early stage. The overall environment for the development of the industry is expected to be improved.
We are optimistic about the development of Baijiu industry next year. The first batch of high-end Baijiu Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) will be expected to usher in double promotion of performance and valuation. Recommend the Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) of the higher level liquor in the second high-end baijiu. Although the capacity of secondary high-end liquor enterprises is expanding rapidly, the competition is fierce. The matching of channel power and channel and product positioning is the core competitive factor. At present, the performance of leading famous liquor enterprises is relatively strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the actual channel operation of secondary high-end liquor enterprises and pay attention to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) . The real estate liquor leader with a solid base market is expected to fully benefit from the upgrading of consumption in the province, and gradually contribute flexibility to the expansion of peripheral markets, paying attention to Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : Baijiu welcome the overall rebound at the end of the year ! The upward trend in 2020 is more clear continue to be optimistic about regional leaders
Baijiu year-end welcome overall rebound, upward trend in 2022 is more clear, continue to optimistic about the regional leader. The industry is in a vacuum of performance, but the Baijiu plate has been rising for three consecutive weeks. In addition to the valuation switching market at the end of the year, the recent rise of the sector is mainly due to 1) the recent volume and price adjustment of leading liquor enterprises, such as the large-scale volume of 1600 tons in Maotai commercial supermarket channel, the comprehensive payment price of puwu increased to 969 yuan, and the ticket price of Jiannanchun crystal sword increased by 20 yuan; 2) Accelerate the implementation of equity incentive, such as Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) completing equity repurchase and Laojiao equity incentive passing the approval of SASAC; 3) Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) promote the catalysis of events such as stripping the real estate business.
We have always been optimistic about the fundamentals and trends of the sector, and the early views of “time for space” and “Mid Autumn Festival and Q3 performance meeting expectations is exceeding expectations” continue to be fulfilled. From the current perspective, we believe that the rebound at the end of the year is an overall rebound, and all targets have opportunities; In December, the industry may enter the spring festival goods preparation stage in advance, which will also boost the performance of the sector by adding factors such as the dealer conference at the end of the year and the performance target announced by the leader exceeding expectations. This year, after the plate valuation was basically digested, the Baijiu performance in 2022 was more definite and the upward trend was more clear. In the long run, the growth rate of first-line high-end liquor enterprises will shift in the future, but there will still be steady and deterministic growth. Next year, the dividend of Maotai management improvement will be accelerated; At the same time, the secondary high-end will take over to achieve flexible growth, and the leading performance is strong, which shows that the general trend of the secondary high-end is still the highest growth opportunity, and continues to be optimistic about the regional leader with stable base market and profit elasticity that can be released through structural upgrading and cost optimization. []
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : high-end Baijiu is the first segment of high-end Baijiu liquor performance or greater elasticity
Baijiu Baijiu continued to recover in 2021, the industry showed a steady growth, influenced by the polarization of consumption, the growth of high-end Baijiu and light bottle wine was more dazzling, and the liquor of the second high-end liquor was more obvious in the extrusion of real estate wine. Affected by last year’s epidemic base, the performance of Baijiu enterprises showed a trend of high and low. The price of high-end Baijiu fluctuated in the middle of the year, but the whole trend was stable. The income and profit of sub high-end liquor enterprises have increased well, and the sauce liquor market began to differentiate. In terms of the completion of tasks in the whole year, due to the relatively advanced payment progress of wine enterprises this year, there is little pressure for mainstream wine enterprises to complete tasks in the whole year.
Investment strategy, we believe that next year’s famous Baijiu still has brand advantage, market concentration will still enhance to famous liquor, high-end Baijiu is the first to promote the plate, the second high-end liquor performance or greater elasticity. With the success of the reform of state-owned enterprises such as Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , more and more wine enterprises have joined the reform team. With the deepening of the reform, the reform dividend will be released gradually. We are optimistic about companies with willingness to reform and positive action. []
