Under the background of the new year's market, can the big consumer sector return as the king after many days of downturn? From the trend of major stock indexes to the latest prediction of fund managers such as Liu Yanchun and Wu Yue, it is not difficult to find that the "valuation return" of the consumer sector is likely to be a major trend of investment in 2022.
The style of is gradually clear, but the difficulty of stock selection is increasing
According to the data, as of the closing on December 9, since December, the Shanghai stock index has risen by 3.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index has risen by 2.38%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has risen by 5.10%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has risen by 6.16%. Blue chips such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) have gone higher, of which Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) once stood at 2100 yuan. On the other hand, the gem index fell 1.04%, and the Kechuang 50 fell 2.79%.
A public offering person in South China said frankly, from the market since December, this round of cross year market has a more obvious "differentiation" trend. After 's strong new energy and other popular racetracks, the big consumption sector began to rise, especially after Moutai's share price returned to 2000 yuan. "Judging from the trend, the market style may change in 2022. With the continuous development of the cross-year market, the style direction will be gradually clear."
Wang Lianxin, fund manager of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund, said that at present, the market's expectations for liquidity are improving, and the reduction of reserve requirements releases the signal of stable growth. There are still considerable investment opportunities for A shares, but it is more difficult to select shares. Wang Lianxin pointed out that as of December 3, 322 of all A-Shares had increased by more than 100% this year, exceeding 206 in 2019 and 269 in 2020. In addition, the median yield of all A-Shares this year is 5.8%, higher than 3% in 2020, but lower than 15.6% in 2019.
"That is to say, judging from the median return of stock returns, the market in 2019 is actually easier to make money than this year. in this year's market, it is relatively easier to outperform the CSI 300 index (the return since this year as of December 3 is - 6%), but it is still not easy to achieve higher returns. With the further increase in the number of A-share listed enterprises in the future, it will be more and more difficult for investors to select stocks. " Wang Lianxin said.
focus on consumer blue chips with fully digested valuation
Liu Yanchun, 100 billion top flow fund manager, pointed out that from a global perspective, the investment side lagging behind the recovery of consumption is expected to gradually return to normal. it is expected that broadening credit, stabilizing growth and boosting domestic demand will be the policy focus next year, and those companies mispriced due to short-term economic fluctuations will be the layout focus in the next stage.
Yu Guang, assistant general manager of Jingshun great wall and general manager of stock investment department, believes that in 2022, under the background of economic transformation, large consumption has long-term excess returns. Under the background of convergence of ppi-cpi scissors difference, the profitability of midstream and downstream enterprises is being repaired. We should focus on consumer blue chips with strong price raising ability or large industry space and sufficient valuation digestion.
Yang Jianhua, deputy general manager of the Great Wall Fund, pointed out that the consumption market of the Spring Festival still needs to consider the epidemic factors. If the impact of Omicron mutant is only high infection rate and low disease severity rate and mortality, the impact of the epidemic on consumption is actually marginal weakening. "From the listed companies we investigated, the operating data of these consumer companies at the beginning of next year are worth looking forward to. If there are no other systemic risks in the market, there is a high probability of making a good start next year."
Miao Yu, manager of GF competitive advantage fund, pointed out that the market of consumer stocks mainly comes from the advance layout of the Spring Festival peak season in February next year. for Chinese people, the Spring Festival is the most important time window for visiting relatives and friends, business thanks and connecting feelings. It is also the situation with the strongest rigidity of consumption upgrading, and has strong guiding significance for the prosperity of the whole year. "Therefore, the Spring Festival is one of the best time windows to observe consumption, including the observation and perception of industrial trends. Many 'new consumer goods' are widely spread during the Spring Festival and become popular products of the year."
The probability of reversal time point is around the Spring Festival
Liang Xing, director of Cathay Pacific quantitative investment division, pointed out that the consumption sector can be subdivided into mandatory and optional consumption sectors such as food and beverage, medicine, agriculture, automobile, games, film and television, of which food and beverage and medicine account for a large proportion.
Liang Xing believes that the current valuation quantile of the food and beverage sector is still at a historically high level and is expected to continue to digest the valuation for some time. The prosperity of the pharmaceutical sector is still, and the valuation quantile of individual fine molecule industries is at a historical low. other consumer segments such as automobiles may have a good performance due to their high prosperity.
Wu Yue, director and fund manager of harvest consumer research, believes that current consumer investment is at the left stage, but it has been seen at the bottom. The time point of reversal is probably around the Spring Festival. compared with this year, the investment opportunities in the consumer sector in the first half of next year are worth looking forward to. Wu Yue pointed out that structurally, next year's consumption market may come from compulsory consumption, and food and agriculture are the core directions. But next year's consumer market is different from the previous leading white horse stocks. The biggest attack direction may come from the second and third tier small and medium-sized market value companies in the required consumption.
" the subdivided track with the attributes of 'innovation' and 'consumption upgrading' in the pharmaceutical sector is the key focus of the market layout in 2022 , and is more optimistic about innovative drugs, CXO, advanced manufacturing in the upstream of medicine, consumer medicine, vaccines and medical devices." Mao Dingding, a researcher in the pharmaceutical industry of ChuangJin Hexin fund, said that from the time dimension of more than one year, the centralized purchase price may gradually return to rationality, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry still has great room for progress in innovation, R & D and so on. With the deepening of population aging, the demand of Chinese residents for medical services will also increase, and the growth space of the pharmaceutical industry is still large.
(China Securities Journal)
