Although various capitals have officially announced to invest in the construction of lithium iron phosphate capacity this year, the output that has not yet been put into operation and the downstream demand that has increased significantly make the lithium iron phosphate Market in short supply continue to heat up, and the news of rising prices and short supply continue to be heard.
tight supply affects the delivery of vehicle enterprises
Recently, a news that Xiaopeng automobile is facing a tight battery supply has aroused market attention again. The company responded that the industry is facing an extremely tight supply of lithium iron phosphate battery, which has brought great uncertainty to the production of Xiaopeng p7480e / N model, resulting in the failure of 480 vehicle orders to be delivered in time within the next scheduled expected delivery cycle.
"The downstream market demand, including energy storage and new energy vehicles, has indeed increased too fast. The demand monitoring value has maintained growth almost every month, so the price of lithium iron phosphate has also increased significantly in recent months." In view of the current supply and demand of lithium iron phosphate, Han Minhua, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, told the securities times · e company that since mid August, the price of power lithium iron phosphate has risen from 52500 yuan / ton to 89000 yuan / ton. Even if the price has risen by nearly 70%, the market is still in short supply. At present, manufacturers are not in a hurry to ship.
Yuan Ye, a cobalt lithium new energy analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network (SMM), said that recently, power battery plants have been brewing price increases, Byd Company Limited(002594) , GuoXuan, Penghui and Funeng have successively issued price increase letters. From the perspective of mainstream battery models, the material cost of conventional 523 square ternary cell increased by 63%, and the material cost of square lithium iron phosphate cell also increased by nearly 70%. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 88000 yuan / ton - 92000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 1500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 83000 yuan / ton - 86000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 1500 yuan / ton compared with last week.
Liu Haijiao of the business agency also analyzed that the price of lithium iron phosphate operated stably last week, the mainstream price was 89000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer shipped actively. At present, the supply side is normal, the negotiation focus is stable, the downstream just needs to purchase, the procurement atmosphere is general, the upstream market focus is high, the price is floating, the lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is large, stable and small.
Baichuan Yingfu data show that from January to October this year, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles completed 2.566 million and 2.542 million respectively, an increase of 1.8 times year-on-year. Compared with the previous month, the demand for lithium iron phosphate continued to increase this month, and the market demand continued to be strong. The market supply of lithium iron phosphate was still tight, and the market showed a strong trend. At present, the power restriction policies in various regions are slightly slow, the production of some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers is normal, the production line capacity of some enterprises is gradually climbing, and the overall supply is higher than before.
However, in the fourth quarter, the demand for downstream new energy vehicles and energy storage market increased significantly, the demand for lithium iron phosphate battery increased significantly, supported the price of lithium iron phosphate, and the overall price was running at a high level. At present, the new capacity of lithium iron phosphate has entered a climbing state, but from the perspective of supply and demand pattern, there is still a supply gap in the lithium iron phosphate Market as a whole.
the upstream market is strong
"In addition to the strong growth of downstream demand, the prices of phosphoric acid, lithium carbonate and other commodities in the upstream of lithium iron phosphate have risen sharply, resulting in a tight supply of raw materials, which has affected the production and supply of some lithium iron phosphate capacity." Han Minhua said that since July this year, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a strong momentum, resulting in a large increase in the cost of lithium iron phosphate. In mid August, lithium carbonate (battery grade) rose from 102000 yuan / ton to 214000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than lithium iron phosphate.
Liu Haijiao also said that the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise last week, and the number of enterprises with rising price of lithium carbonate began to increase. With the arrival of the end of the year, the trading volume of lithium carbonate market has increased and the market quotation has been rising. The market inventory is still good, and most practitioners are in a wait-and-see state. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price is still in a strong consolidation state.
SMM cobalt lithium new energy data show that at present, downstream manufacturers, especially lithium iron phosphate, have a strong mood of goods preparation, and the purchase price has climbed all the way to the highest 225000 yuan / ton. As of December 3, 2021, the price of SMM battery grade lithium carbonate has risen to 210000 yuan / ton, an increase of 296% over the beginning of the year, reaching a record high. With the gradual deepening of the industrial expansion of lithium iron phosphate, the demand for 3C has warmed up due to the slight recovery of chip supply, and the new production capacity of electrolyte raw material lithium hexafluorophosphate has been put into operation. The demand for lithium carbonate in the upstream has increased significantly. With the continuous tight supply pattern, the price of lithium carbonate has climbed all the way to the high point.
In November 2021, China's lithium carbonate output was about 20400 tons, with a month on month increase of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 38%. In December, China's major lithium carbonate plants will enter the Spring Festival maintenance period. It is expected that the overall lithium carbonate production in December will be reduced to 19100 tons, a month on month decrease of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 25%. At the same time, overseas gradually enter the New Year holiday, and the port shipping schedule may be delayed. At that time, the supply at home and abroad may be reduced, the supply gap will further increase, and the upward speed of price will gradually accelerate.
new capacity release takes time
Lithium iron phosphate has huge market demand space in the future and has attracted large-scale investment from various capitals since 2021.
Industry leaders in titanium dioxide, phosphorus chemical industry and other fields took the lead in investing a large amount of funds across the border one after another, and said that through industrial cooperation, they can produce a cost advantage of more than 1000 yuan per ton in the production link.
Recently, in addition to investment in industries with industrial synergy, more investment in non chemical industries has also poured in.
On December 4, Hangzhou Weiguang Electronic Co.Ltd(002801) , one of the major manufacturers of refrigerator motors and external rotor fans in the world, announced that it had signed the lithium iron phosphate project cooperation agreement with Zhejiang tuoanshi Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "tuoanshi") and other parties to jointly invest in Jiangsu youanshi battery materials Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "youanshi"). For the cross-border layout, Hangzhou Weiguang Electronic Co.Ltd(002801) said that youanshi company has the production technology of dry mixed lithium iron phosphate material, with good product performance, low processing cost and strong competitiveness compared with the same industry. The company is optimistic about the development prospect of lithium iron phosphate Market. The purpose of investing in the project is to grasp the investment opportunities for the great development of new energy, broaden the company's investment fields and profit channels, and promote the sustainable development and stable growth of the company.
Previously, in November, Ningxia Zhongyin Cashmere Co.Ltd(000982) also announced that it planned to acquire 100% equity of Sichuan xinruiheng lithium energy technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "xinruiheng"), as the world's largest and best manufacturer of cashmere products, and planned to use xinruiheng as the main investor to invest in the construction of lithium iron phosphate project with an annual output of 80000 tons of lithium battery cathode material. The company disclosed that it has an annual production capacity of 4200 tons of lithium iron phosphate.
The competitive involvement of capital will undoubtedly increase the supply of lithium iron phosphate Market. The listed companies participating in the layout have also suggested that with the rapid growth of lithium iron phosphate market demand, companies in the same industry have started production expansion plans. At the same time, many chemical enterprises also cross into the lithium iron phosphate industry. With the gradual release of new capacity in the industry, the competition in the lithium iron phosphate market will intensify.
According to SMM cobalt lithium new energy data, the output of lithium iron phosphate in China in November 2021 was about 52000 tons, an increase of 14.4% month on month and 176% year-on-year. In December 2021, the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 55300 tons, with a month on month increase of 6.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%.
"The total capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China last year was 235000 tons, and another 65000 tons of capacity was increased from June to August this year. The growth is still obvious. According to the announcement disclosed by major listed companies, it is expected that there will be several million tons of new planned capacity of lithium iron phosphate in the next one or two years, but whether it can be fully implemented still needs attention." Han Minhua said.
Han Minhua believes that although lithium iron phosphate faces accelerated capacity expansion in the later stage, the market demand will also be a process of continuous growth. The market supply and demand next year will depend on the specific capacity implementation. However, due to the long production cycle of upstream lithium carbonate and involving raw ore and brine materials, there is a certain technical threshold, so the production capacity will not increase too fast. Therefore, the price of lithium carbonate will maintain a strong expectation next year. Supported by the price of lithium carbonate raw material, the price of lithium iron phosphate will not decline significantly.
Baichuan Yingfu believes that the capacity of mainstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises has expanded rapidly, the new capacity has been released in the second half of the year, and the supply will be further improved. The price of upstream lithium carbonate continues to be high, and the price of raw material phosphoric acid has been reduced slightly. With the support of the heat at the downstream demand end and the high cost, the lithium iron phosphate market will remain high in the short term.
(Securities Times)
