After the price reduction of silicon wafer for the third consecutive week, the price of silicon material also loosened. According to the data of PV InfoLink, a market research institution, the average price of polysilicon compact this week was 258000 yuan / ton, down 11000 yuan / ton or 4.1% from the average price last week. The statistical results of the silicon branch are similar. The price range of single crystal compact is 253000-267000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price is 260000 yuan / ton, down 3.6% on a weekly basis.
From the interview of the reporter of securities times · e company and the perspective of third-party institutions, all parties in the market have formed consistent expectations for the price reduction of silicon material, but there are still uncertainties about when and how much the price reduction will be. Recently, China has added a number of silicon material production capacity, while facing the weakening of downstream demand, and the silicon material price game is intensifying. On the other hand, the prices of mainstream silicon wafer products continue to fall this week, which is conducive to the improvement of profit expectations of downstream manufacturers such as batteries and components. As for whether they can really retain profits, it will test the management and order receiving ability of downstream manufacturers.
silicon price game intensifies
“The silicon material we currently sell is the price we negotiated with customers last month, and the price next month is still negotiating with customers.” A leading silicon material manufacturer told reporters that the data of a third-party organization showed that the decline in silicon material price may be due to a small number of zero order and loose order sales of some manufacturers. “Therefore, this does not mean that most silicon materials traded refer to this price.”
The analysis of the silicon branch shows that the silicon material market is still light this week, and only two enterprises have a small number of loose orders and supplementary orders. At present, the demand in the terminal market is still weak, and the whole industrial chain is in the de inventory stage, resulting in significant price reduction and promotion in the silicon wafer link, but the actual effect is not very obvious. Silicon wafer enterprises are facing the dilemma of high inventory and continuous price reduction, and their willingness to purchase silicon materials is not strong.
PV InfoLink pointed out that although negotiations on a new round of orders and prices have begun one after another, the buyer and the seller are still in a state of great differences on the decline speed and range of silicon price. Although the market atmosphere is imminent, there is also a confrontation of their own words. The silicon industry branch also believes that all links of the whole industry have the same cognition of the trend of silicon material price decline, but the expectations of the magnitude and speed of silicon material price decline are still inconsistent, which is also the focus of upstream and downstream games.
The reporter noted that since the fourth quarter, a number of new silicon production capacity have been put into operation in China, including Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) two 50000 T / a production capacity projects in Leshan, Sichuan and Baoshan, Yunnan, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) 35000 T / a production capacity project and the 20000 t / a production capacity project of phase II granular silicon under poly GCL. The total new production capacity in the fourth quarter reached 155000 T / A.
On the one hand, the new production capacity has eased the supply shortage, on the other hand, the downstream demand is depressed. Under the background of the decline of silicon wafer prices for several consecutive weeks, the price trend of silicon seems to have become the focus of the market. “In the medium and long term, there is no doubt that the price of silicon will go down.” The above silicon material manufacturer told reporters, but the person also pointed out that the upstream and downstream game process is more complex, and even the change of terminal demand will affect the silicon material price. It can only be said that under the medium and long-term trend, the silicon material price will return to a reasonable level.
As for what is the reasonable price level and whether the silicon material will return to about 60000 yuan / ton last year, the above-mentioned people said that the head silicon material enterprises can only maintain a small profit at the price of 60000 yuan / ton, which will trigger the withdrawal of high-cost silicon material production capacity and soaring price again. Therefore, to obtain a reasonable profit space at a reasonable price level can ensure the stable development of the industry. The person explained that since silicon material is the most difficult in all links of photovoltaic, its profitability should also be higher than other links at a reasonable price level.
From the perspective of short-term trend, PV InfoLink believes that based on the overall low operating level of silicon wafer, the new order price negotiation and quantity demand are expected to take into account the production demand before and after January and even the Spring Festival holiday. After the end of the substantive negotiation stage in the middle and late December, the actual transaction level of silicon material price this month will be gradually revealed. It is expected that the silicon material price will decline significantly month on month.
downstream performance improvement expectations
From the aspect of silicon wafers, PV InfoLink data showed that the average price of 166 silicon wafers this week was 5 yuan / piece, a decrease of 4.8%; The average price of 182 silicon wafers with high market attention was 5.85 yuan / piece, down 5.6%, while the lowest price has reached 5.65 yuan / piece; After the price reduction announced last week Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , 210 silicon wafer also decreased by 6% this week, and the average transaction price was 8.55 yuan / piece.
PV InfoLink believes that the thickness of the main circulating products of monocrystalline silicon wafer is basically switched to 165 μ m. Although the thickness of individual specification products with larger size is still 170 for the time being μ M is the main quotation, but 160 μ The progress of m-thickness switching is also trying to accelerate, which should be regarded as a more radical switching target. The measured feedback results at the downstream application end still need time to observe and prove.
The agency said that the recent decline in silicon wafer market prices has also reflected the prices of silicon wafers with different thicknesses. According to market information feedback, at present, the price of 182 silicon wafers is chaotic, and the low price range even comes to RMB 5.6/piece. In addition, the change in the circulation proportion of other sizes and specifications intensifies, and the proportion trend of 210 silicon wafers will be more challenged in the coming 2022.
The statistics of the silicon branch detailed the situation of various silicon wafer suppliers. From the perspective of supply, the operating rates of the two front-line enterprises were maintained at 45% and 60% respectively, and the operating rates of integrated enterprises were maintained at 80% – 90%. The operating rate of other enterprises increased to 50% – 100%. The supply has increased slightly, but the overall supply is still in a weak operation.
In addition, the price of silicon material fell for the first time after a month of sideways trading this week. The first-line enterprises remain on the sidelines. When anticipating the risk of price reduction in the industrial chain, the first-line enterprises are worried that the signing will be transformed into high-priced material inventory at this time. From the perspective of demand, the two third-party silicon wafer enterprises complete the purchase order of monocrystalline silicon wafer, and both adopt the method of long order negotiation.
From the perspective of battery and module links, the decline is obviously not as large as that of silicon materials and silicon chips in the upstream. The decline of mainstream battery and module products this week is within 2%. However, for the future market, the institutional view is still not optimistic.
PV InfoLink predicted that due to insufficient orders from component manufacturers and the reduction of inventory due to the lower repair operation rate, the single crystal cell chip maintained a downward trend in December. At the same time, the demand for components is still low, and many component manufacturers have revised their original expectations for the output in December. In order to compete for orders and shipments under the low demand, the price competition has quietly begun, and the price reduction of components in the first quarter may increase.
Previously, it was believed that the price reduction of silicon wafer was conducive to the profit improvement of battery, module and other manufacturers. In view of this situation, the reporter also consulted relevant manufacturers. A person from a head battery manufacturer said that the upstream price reduction is certainly good for the downstream, but whether the downstream enterprises can retain profits will be different, which is related to the enterprise management ability and the ability to obtain orders. “It can only be said that the upstream price reduction, and the downstream manufacturers have the expectation of marginal improvement. If the enterprises do not have strong competitiveness, the profit space after the upstream price reduction is also relatively limited.”
(Securities Times)
