After yesterday's sharp rise in a shares, it is also expected that Shanghai and Shenzhen will usher in a shock callback today (December 10). After the three major stock indexes opened low, the Shanghai index maintained a weak shock, while the gem index climbed upward in the shock and turned red smoothly. From the disk point of view, light index heavy stocks, although there may be shocks after a short-term continuous rise, the market is still promising. Financial stocks are facing a decline, while resource stocks led by lithium are making a comeback, the concept of meta universe breaks out, auto parts, agricultural planting and other sectors are also performing well, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that at this stage, the market fundamentals support is strong. With the implementation of RRR reduction, the expectation of policy easing is strengthened again, which has boosted the confidence to do long. The cross-year market is worth looking forward to. However, after the continuous rise of the short-term index, the subsequent high shock cannot be ruled out. Investors should pay attention to the fluctuations of plates and individual stocks brought by the withdrawal of the index stage.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] auto parts
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that the automotive industry has entered the era of electric intelligence, and the competition pattern of the industry will be reshaped. Independent vehicles are at the global leading level in the field of electrification and intelligence. In the future, they will stand out in the competition and continue to be optimistic about the head independent vehicle enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Auto, etc; At the same time, the parts industry will usher in a new era in the downstream recovery and replenishment cycle. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the rise of domestic parts under the reform of electric intelligent industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that under the wave of "new four modernizations" of automobile, "software defined automobile" has become the general trend. Tesla and other new forces car companies have created a new business model. Compared with the traditional one-time profit from selling hardware, the replication cost of software is low and can be continuously upgraded. Under the software charging mode, with the increase of the number of users, the profit space of Tesla and other new forces car companies will continue to expand. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles, auto parts are also facing great changes in products, technologies, manufacturing methods and other fields. Under the trend of automobile intelligence and networking, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit continue to promote the upgrading of automobile electronics. In addition to automotive electronics, new forces such as Tesla also lead technological innovation in the fields of body and chassis, which will also bring new opportunities to the industrial chain.
Huafu securities mentioned that domestic parts enterprises will usher in a golden age of development. The reasons for the weak strength of domestic parts enterprises are that the core technology of fuel vehicles is backward, the supplier system of Japanese and European main engine manufacturers is relatively closed, and the strength of independent brand vehicle manufacturers is weak. With the accelerated penetration of intelligent electric, the core technology of the automotive industry is evolving, the supplier system is gradually changing, and the pattern of the main engine plant is expected to be reshaped. Driven by the two wheels of "Tesla cycle" and "independent rise", domestic parts will usher in a golden age of development.
The agency further analyzed that auto parts are a large market with a scale of 100 billion yuan. Tesla cycle and independent rise resonate, and domestic parts are expected to usher in a 5-10-year investment window. []
[Theme 2] agricultural planting
AVIC Securities pointed out that the seed industry revitalization policy is a new cycle. Policy: the state attaches great importance to the safety of seed industry, promotes the revitalization of seed industry to a new level of national food and seed industry security, and formulates supporting programs such as the action plan for the revitalization of seed industry. Institutional: the seed law and seed industry regulations are constantly revised and improved to promote the establishment of a substantive derived variety system. In terms of Supervision: the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has carried out annual activities of seed industry supervision and law enforcement and special rectification actions for intellectual property protection, and severely punished violations of seed industry. As of October, 4000 cases of seed industry violations have been investigated and dealt with throughout the country.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that the continuous introduction and implementation of policies has opened the curtain of the commercialization process of genetically modified seed industry. The commercialization of genetically modified crops is expected to significantly improve the industry concentration, and significantly improve the size of the seed industry and the profitability of participants. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading enterprises Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) that laid out the genetically modified seed industry earlier and took the lead in technical reserves.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that from the perspective of cycle, the prosperity of grain prices is upward. As the post grain price cycle, the seed industry will be in the performance release channel in the next two years; The improvement of supply and demand structure of corn seeds in China will also usher in the reversal of inventory cycle. From the perspective of growth, the timely implementation of GM will bring variety transformation to the industry, and the leading enterprises will usher in a high-speed growth stage of rising prices and increasing market share. []
[Theme 3] meta universe
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that metaverse is the main investment line of global TMT in the near future. Catalyst 1: at Facebook's annual connect conference at the end of October, the company announced to change its name to meta, opening the all in transformation from social media platform to meta universe ecology. Catalyst 2: at the Microsoft ignite conference in early November, the company announced its official entry into the meta universe and synchronously announced the meta universe office scenario solution meshforteams. It is judged that giants such as meta and Microsoft are gathering together to rush the meta universe and release a strong signal: the meta universe is moving from concept to the initial stage of industrial application, and the next Internet era has arrived.
Anxin securities mentioned that Facebook and Microsoft have entered the market one after another, and the meta universe market has driven the development of VR industry: after Facebook renamed meta and announced to enter the meta universe, on November 2, Microsoft announced at ignite 2021 conference that it plans to realize the meta universe through a series of new applications integrating the virtual environment, so that the digital world can share and communicate with the physical world. Metauniverse is a virtual and real digital world in space dimension and time dimension. It aims to form a virtual reality system including network, hardware interruption and users. It is expected to produce a considerable market in the future. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the market size of the meta universe will reach US $1.5 trillion in 2030.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) indicates that VR / AR is the core entrance to the future of the metauniverse. Since Facebook released its VR headset oculus quest2 in October 2020, it has sold more than one million units in Q4 in 20 years. Yingwei predicts that the sales of this product will exceed 8 million units in 21 years, becoming an absolute popular model in the industry. With the continuous increase of VR hardware sales, it also drives the whole VR software ecology. The proportion of VR players linked every month on steam platform continues to increase. As the core entrance to the future of the meta universe, VR devices can further improve the authenticity and interactivity of user experience. From the perspective of investment suggestions, metauniverse will be used as the next generation traffic entrance, which is recommended to focus on. Overseas companies such as unity, NVIDIA, roblox, etc., and Chinese companies such as Goertek Inc(002241) .
In addition, new era Securities believes that yuanuniverse investment is first in the game. The third quarterly report of the game has a bright performance, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) 867 million in the third quarter, an increase of 54.77% and 81% after deducting non profits; Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) the game performance in the third quarter was 550 million yuan; G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) the net profit in the first three quarters reached 1.206 billion yuan, an increase of 51.7% at the same time; Mingchen Health Co.Ltd(002919) the net profit in the first three quarters was 121 million yuan, an increase of 158% at the same time; Others such as Kingnet Network Co.Ltd(002517) , Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) , Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network Technology Co.Ltd(603258) , Yoozoo Interactive Co.Ltd(002174) have good performance recovery and growth. []
[theme 4] lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that at present, countries all over the world regard lithium resources as strategic mineral resources. It is very important to ensure the supply security of lithium metal minerals and establish a local supply chain. At the same time, with the continuous rise in the price of lithium concentrate, we will also find that the profits of non integrated lithium salt processing enterprises are gradually thinning, and the profits have largely moved to the resource side. A typical example is aokuang, which is highly dependent on China's lithium salt processing plants. In the last cycle, it only earned 30% of the profits of the industrial chain. In this cycle, 70% to 80% of the profits have been transferred to aokuang, which just confirms aokuang's expectation that the profits of this cycle and China's lithium salt plants will open at the beginning of the year.
Ping An Securities pointed out that with the gradual normalization of economic operation, the marginal impact of demand and liquidity on nonferrous metals will weaken in 2022, but the overall low inventory, epidemic situation and China's carbon neutralization policy may have a certain impact on supply, the price fluctuation of nonferrous products will increase, and the price focus of industrial metals may move down. At the same time, carbon neutralization, as a national strategy, will have a profound impact on the non-ferrous industry. Electrolytic aluminum, energy metals and new materials greatly affected by carbon neutralization will become a gold track and an important investment main line.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that the output of lithium extraction from China's salt lakes declined after entering the winter, and the shutdown and maintenance of large lithium salt plants in Jiangxi, Sichuan and other places at the end of the year will also aggravate the shortage of lithium salt supply in China. On the demand side, the shortage of lithium resources resonates with the joint force of stock preparation and replenishment at the end of the Spring Festival, and the price of lithium is expected to rise across the year. []
