Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: the shortage of lithium resources resonates with the stock replenishment at the end of the Spring Festival on the demand side the price of lithium is expected to rise across the year
The output of lithium extracted from China's salt lakes has declined since winter. The shutdown and maintenance of large lithium salt plants in Jiangxi, Sichuan and other places at the end of the year will also aggravate the shortage of lithium salt supply in China. On the demand side, the shortage of lithium resources resonates with the joint force of stock preparation for the Spring Festival at the end of the year. Lithium prices are expected to rise across the year. It is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) . The Omicron fermentation of South African variant covid-19 virus may affect the global cobalt raw material supply chain from DRC to South Africa to China. The tight inventory of Chinese cobalt raw materials may continue until the first quarter of next year, causing the recent accelerated rise of cobalt price. It is suggested to pay attention to the gradual realization of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) and Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) transformation logic of cobalt industry leaders and new energy material integration leaders.
In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology has issued the motor energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023), which proposes that the annual output of high-efficiency and energy-saving motors will reach 170 million KW by 2023, and the proportion of in-service high-efficiency and energy-saving motors will reach more than 20%. With the support of policies, the promotion of industrial high-efficiency motors is expected to improve the penetration rate of rare earth permanent magnet motors and drive the growth of demand for Nd-Fe-B and rare earth. It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) , Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech Co.Ltd(000970) in the rare earth permanent magnet sector. []
Ping An Securities: electrolytic aluminum, energy metals and new materials greatly affected by carbon neutralization will become the golden track
We believe that with the gradual normalization of economic operation, the marginal impact of demand and liquidity on nonferrous metals will weaken in 2022, but the overall low inventory, epidemic situation and China's carbon neutralization policy may have a certain impact on supply, the price fluctuation of nonferrous products will increase, and the price focus of industrial metals may move down. At the same time, carbon neutralization, as a national strategy, will have a profound impact on the non-ferrous industry. Electrolytic aluminum, energy metals and new materials greatly affected by carbon neutralization will become a gold track and an important investment main line.
In terms of investment suggestions, the short and medium-term investment opportunities of carbon neutralization related metals and new materials are prominent, and the investment opportunities of non-ferrous industry are still worth looking forward to, maintaining the industry's "stronger than the big market" investment rating. It is suggested to pay attention to the continuous impact of benefiting from carbon neutralization, energy efficiency and energy consumption, and the leading enterprises Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) of electrolytic aluminum with strong supply constraints and the leading companies Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) of renewable aluminum sub industry with rapid demand growth; At the same time, focus on energy metals and lithium copper foil that benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage and have a good supply and demand pattern, and related companies Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) . []
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : countries regard lithium resources as strategic mineral resources it will be very important to establish a local supply chain
At present, countries all over the world regard lithium resources as strategic mineral resources. It is very important to ensure the supply security of lithium metal minerals and establish a local supply chain. At the same time, with the continuous rise in the price of lithium concentrate, we will also find that the profits of non integrated lithium salt processing enterprises are gradually thinning, and the profits have largely moved to the resource side. A typical example is aokuang, which is highly dependent on China's lithium salt processing plants. In the last cycle, it only earned 30% of the profits of the industrial chain. In this cycle, 70% to 80% of the profits have been transferred to aokuang, which just confirms aokuang's expectation that the profits of this cycle and China's lithium salt plants will open at the beginning of the year.
It is recommended to buy an integrated enterprise with upstream resource guarantee and incremental resources, otherwise it will not be able to enjoy the profit elasticity under the high price of lithium salt next year. It is recommended to pay attention to the ongoing Lijiagou spodumene mining and beneficiation project. In the future, it will join hands with Dongchuan energy investment to integrate and develop the lithium resources in Ganzi and ABA. The beneficiary targets include [ Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ] which is promoting the 2.5 million T / a lithium ore beneficiation project in yuanyangba. The greenbushes mine will increase production in the next five years and can achieve a large output of [ Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ] through OEM, For [ Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ] with production expansion plan, it is expected that [ Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ] will be completed next year. []
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: the high outlook of the nonferrous industry continues the highlight time is coming
The industry's high vision continues, and the highlight moment is coming. In the next two quarters, the profit of lithium salt is still greater than that of lithium mine, but the profit is gradually inclined to lithium mine. At the current time point, the drive of the lithium sector should focus on the release of performance. The rise of the lithium price base leads to a lower price rise than before, but the state of high prices and high profits in the industry is expected to remain for a long time, and the industry has entered an unprecedented high light moment. Sort out the main companies in the industry, based on the output performance in 2022, from the perspective of P / E ratio, and considering the company's position in the industry, future capacity expansion, resource guarantee and other factors, give different factors, and finally calculate the target market value and relative space. According to comprehensive calculation, we mainly recommend targets with large space in the future, including Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , etc. []
Cinda Securities: under the background of "double carbon" goal pay attention to the historic investment opportunities of new energy and new materials
In the context of the "double carbon" goal, pay attention to the historic investment opportunities of new energy and new materials, and focus on new energy metals with strong demand and weak supply pattern (lithium cobalt nickel rare earth) and new metal materials benefiting from industrial upgrading and domestic substitution. Lithium recommends paying attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) , Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , Guangdong Haomei New Materials Co.Ltd(002988) , Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) etc. for new materials; Titanium suggests paying attention to Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Sichuan Anning Iron And Titanium Co.Ltd(002978) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) etc. for precious metals; For industrial metals, it is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , etc. []
Guosheng Securities: tight supply of lithium concentrate leads to high prices boosting the lithium salt market in terms of cost
Lithium: the tight supply of lithium concentrate led to the high price, which boosted the lithium salt market in terms of cost. Under the influence of narrowed profit space, climate and policies, the lithium salt plant has poor operation and tight supply; There is a strong demand for downstream products such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate. Downstream manufacturers actively inquire orders, and the marginal gap between supply and demand increases, supporting the focus of market transaction prices to maintain a high level.
In terms of nickel: the supply and demand of nickel sulfate continues to be stable, and the impact of power restriction on enterprise production is gradually weakened, but the downstream procurement demand has not been restored. At present, the economy of nickel sulfate dissolved in nickel beans is better than that of nickel intermediates, and the short-term nickel price is expected to maintain stable operation.
Cobalt: a mutant strain has been found in South Africa. At present, the new epidemic has disturbed the cobalt supply chain. Some shipping schedule uncertainties will continue until the first quarter of 2022, and China's arrival in Hong Kong may decline again. It is suggested to pay attention to: Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) . []
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : the gap continues to enlarge and the price accelerates upward it is expected that the rising market of lithium carbonate will continue before the Spring Festival
The supply gap widened and the price of lithium carbonate accelerated upward. Chinese smelters have successively entered the year-end maintenance stage (ranging from 7 to 30 days), production in Qinghai and other places has been clearly reduced, and the short-term impact of holidays on overseas imports will gradually appear; The decline in domestic and foreign production has led to the continuous amplification of the spot supply gap and the acceleration of the upward price. It is expected that the rising market of lithium carbonate will continue before the Spring Festival. The demand for lithium hydroxide has recovered, and the purchasing sentiment of high nickel material factory has improved significantly. In terms of cobalt, the rise of overseas power cobalt and the shortage of intermediate inventory continued to drive the price of cobalt in China (457000 yuan / ton, the highest since October 2018), and Chinese smelting enterprises maintained a low opening rate due to cost inversion. The shortage of raw material supply caused by tight transportation capacity strongly supports the short-term price. It is expected that the price of cobalt salt will rise slightly in the future, and the price of electrolytic cobalt and intermediate products will remain high. []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the upstream raw materials of new energy, such as lithium cobalt rare earth copper foil, aluminum foil and magnetic materials the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year business upward cycle remains unchanged
The downward pressure on the global economic prosperity is prominent. Under the influence of superimposed policies, the supply side shrinks, the supply and demand of base metals are weak, the overall inventory has dropped, China's real estate policy is loose, and the expectation of warming has supported the price, but the short-term epidemic disturbance exacerbates the fluctuation of metal prices.
For the upstream raw materials of new energy, such as lithium cobalt, rare earth, copper foil, aluminum foil and magnetic materials, the short-term boom is still strong, and the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year boom upward cycle remains unchanged. Core target: 1) new energy vehicle industry chain: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) etc. 2) Base metal: Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) etc. 3) Precious metals: Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) etc. []
