Baijiu plate has recently risen to become a hot spot in the capital market. Among them, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) after nearly five months, the share price returned to the 2000 yuan mark.
Guo Niang Baijiu, the first ten months, the national liquor industry achieved double profit growth in profits, while liquor production in the subdivision of alcohol growth in the first place. Industry insiders said that the price increase expectation of wine enterprises is gradually heating up, the volume and price of high-end wine maintain the trend of simultaneous rise, and the sub high-end wine continues to differentiate. The Baijiu season is approaching, and liquor consumption is expected to be concentrated.
expected rise in price
In the first ten months of this year, the national brewing industry achieved double growth in revenue and profit.
According to the data of China Wine Association, from January to October 2021, enterprises above Designated Size in the national brewing industry completed a total brewing output of 45.9385 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%; The sales revenue was 692.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.02%; The total profit was 156.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.57%; Among them, the output of Baijiu was 558.19 million liters, an increase of 5.49% over the same period, and the highest growth rate in liquor making.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) expects that the macro economic margins will be good for supporting Baijiu demand next year, and the price of 1000 yuan will accelerate the expansion of the products.
Recently, Baijiu enterprises continue to release the signal of raising prices, and the liquor sector is favored by the capital.
Previously, news about the upcoming price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) emerged one after another. According to media reports, the newly signed contract price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dealers will change next year. The unplanned price of 52 degree eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will be increased from 999 yuan / bottle to 1089 yuan / bottle, the planned price of 889 yuan / bottle will remain unchanged, and the contract volume inside and outside the plan will be 3:2. It is estimated that, on the whole, the ex factory price of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) bottle has increased from 889 yuan to 969 yuan, an increase of nearly 9%, which is consistent with the ex factory price of 53 degrees and 500 ml Feitian Maotai. The new price increase policy is expected to be officially announced at the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dealer Conference on December 18 this year.
East China Baijiu liquor dealer Chen Wei, who is the head of a large liquor dealer, told the China Securities Daily reporter that the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price rises were true. Some large dealers have 889 yuan / bottle within the quota and 999 yuan / bottle outside the quota this year. All new dealers this year are equipped with extra, and the price is also 999 yuan / bottle. These are the prices before the price rise. I don't know when to release the price rise documents, but the price rise is certain.
" Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the main market is in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and the main application scenarios are reception, banquet, etc. Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) relatively recognizes the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) brand, and the group purchase business Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is slowly weakening." Chen Wei said.
Ouyang Yu, chief food and beverage analyst at Huachuang securities, told the China Securities Journal that after entering December, the price increase expectation at the end of the year is gradually warming up. " Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as the wind vane of industry demand next year, the recovery of wholesale price will directly affect its own operation, the confidence of industry investment promotion channels and the expectations of the capital market. In the case of large volume this year, the sales volume of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is expected to increase in single digits next year, of which the general five contributes 10% and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) contributes additional growth." Ouyang Yu said.
Chen Wei predicted that after Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) announced the price increase, Guojiao 1573 will probably follow suit and gradually increase the price. "It won't rise 100 yuan at a time like Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . It should rise 30 or 50 yuan first, and then 30 or 50 yuan next quarter, slowly rising."
"Recently, Maotai dealers added 800 tons of Feitian quota, and the source of goods came from the unused direct sales quota of Maotai Group. The dealer's payment price was 1479 yuan / bottle, and the recommended retail price was 1499 yuan / bottle, which released the signal of price system reform and boosted market confidence. In addition, the recent channel feedback showed that the prices of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) various products increased, and the payment prices of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) increased by different ranges." Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that in the research report, near the end of the year, the Baijiu plate is expected to usher in a catalyst such as the general assembly of distributors, the planning of wine enterprises in 2022, and the increase of mainstream core products.
ushered in the peak consumption season
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) equity incentive has made new progress and has also played a catalytic role in the sector.
Ouyang Yu told reporters that according to the target set by equity incentive, it is expected that there will be an increase of more than 20% next year. "Among other sub high-end products, Fenjiu has high certainty. We will continue to cultivate consumers and solidly promote the nationwide market layout. It is expected that the sales target growth rate will be about 30% next year. In addition, shede and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) are expected to continue to grow high next year."
A number of securities dealers said that Baijiu plate welcomed the peak season of consumption at the end of the Spring Festival and the high season is expected to continue until next year. All liquor enterprises will hold marketing summary meetings in 2021, and arrange development goals in 2022 and strategies for the peak season of the Spring Festival. Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , shede and Jiannanchun all released positive signals, boosting the confidence of the liquor market.
Ping An Securities pointed out that the supply and demand of high-end Baijiu should be kept tight. Driven by product volume and price increase, the performance is expected to achieve rapid growth. The concentration of sub high-end Baijiu is still low, and the price of high-end liquor will be opened after the price of high-end liquor is raised. At the same time, the banquet market is expected to recover when the epidemic situation improves, and the secondary high-end products will enhance the growth of the company's performance.
"The market demand for liquor in the coming year is still controversial, but from the perspective of the quality of Baijiu Baijiu, the liquor industry is basically healthy, and there is still some residual force in the report, and confidence in the channel is still enough." Huachang Securities said that short-term recommendations should be attached to the year-end dealer conference, Baijiu enterprises to disclose the next year's business plan, as well as the preparation of the peak season and other catalysis.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that Baijiu is currently in the key stage of the liquor industry in the Spring Festival season, and all the wine companies are fighting for the battle. In December, the channel will be gradually returned. It is estimated that the proportion of the liquor companies in the Spring Festival will be about 40%-50%. The Spring Festival peak season is gradual. At present, the fund making and goods preparation through channels are progressing smoothly, and we are optimistic about the good start of 2022.
(China Securities Journal)
