[can the two silicon wafer giants in Longji and central keep up with the price reduction? The profit reconstruction of the photovoltaic industry chain is in progress] on November 30, the world’s largest silicon wafer and module manufacturer Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) reduced the official quotation of silicon wafer for the first time since May last year. Two days later, the world’s second-largest silicon wafer manufacturer Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) also announced a price reduction, and the decline of related products was greater than Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) . Has the strong cycle photovoltaic industry ushered in an inflection point? The prices of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) silicon wafer products have been reduced one after another, which can not help causing such concern in the industry.
The attitudes and measures of the middle and lower reaches will inevitably have an impact. Does the upstream silicon link feel it?
Recently, the reporter visited several silicon material production enterprises and learned from the on-site interview that their production objectives and plans have not changed.
A senior crystalline silicon marketing manager said that the conduction effect of silicon wafer price reduction has not reached the silicon material link, and the silicon material price has not been significantly loose.
The reporter learned from some silicon material enterprises that customers have been cautious in taking goods.
“Always hit.” The vice chairman of a Chinese silicon material production capacity ranked in the top five companies told reporters that the decline in the price of silicon wafers in the middle reaches will impact the price of silicon materials, but the decline ratio of each link is different, “the space for the decline of silicon materials is much smaller”.
Another industry insider from a large silicon material factory in China said, “at present, the decline of silicon wafers has no impact on us. The price of silicon material here has not changed.” For the future, he remained ambiguous, “it’s hard to say.”
As another relevant person mentioned, the logic of the industrial chain – the price of each link of the industrial chain has always been mainly determined by the relationship between supply and demand. When the silicon wafer has no profit, it will affect the operating rate of its own link, thus affecting the demand for silicon material. After the change of the relationship between supply and demand, the price of silicon material will be adjusted accordingly.
The key to no profit of silicon wafer is to expand production. In addition to the old giants Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) and other new forces are also entering.
The reporter learned from multiple interviews that a silicon wafer enterprise misjudged the installation demand in the fourth quarter of this year and prepared a large amount of inventory in the rod pulling link. Now the inventory pressure is quite great.
According to the analysis of the above-mentioned vice chairman of a company who did not want to be named, the downstream installation speed can not keep up, and the operating rate of silicon wafers, battery chips and components is insufficient. “If the components are reduced to less than 1 yuan and 8 yuan, the rate of return on installation will be normal.” The reporter found that the current high transaction price of components is 2.1 yuan / W.
Without the rate of return in the downstream, the negative feedback effect of price rise in the industrial chain appears. This is the basic principle of economic accounting. When the market individual reaches the limit of marginal cost tolerance, it will say no to production.
Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) before announcing the price reduction of silicon wafer, the price of silicon material also showed signs of immobility. According to the data of silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association on November 24, the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding is 267000 ~ 275000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price remains unchanged at 272200 yuan / ton; The price range of single crystal compact is 265000 ~ 273000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price remains unchanged at 269900 yuan / ton.
At the “top” stage of silicon material price rise, some optimists also look forward to the price of 300000 yuan / ton. Many managers of silicon material enterprises smiled at this price, “basically impossible.”
However, industry insiders do not believe that the price of silicon wafers will continue to fall.
“Silicon wafer enterprises have reduced the silicon wafer inventory to a low level by reducing the operating rate and price reduction. It is expected that the silicon wafer price will stabilize soon.” Relevant people said that at present, the price of silicon material acceptable to silicon wafer enterprises is estimated to be more than 200 yuan / kg, which is still expected to be more than 200000 yuan / ton.
“Because there is no problem with the demand for the whole PV, the installation demand that has not been completed this year will also be pushed to next year.” The source told reporters, “from the perspective of the third party and its own forecasts, we are still optimistic about the installed capacity next year. We believe that the appropriate adjustment of the current round of industrial chain prices will be conducive to the rapid release of terminal demand, and the demand for silicon is expected to gradually increase from the first quarter”.
In other words, there is no problem with the total demand of the photovoltaic industry, and the profit distribution brought by the price rise suppresses the potential demand. When the downstream demand is blocked, the profits will be distributed again in the industrial chain until there is power to install.
On the other hand, although the silicon wafer is in the inventory reduction cycle, the long order logic of locking quantity and ensuring supply has not changed. “Now the downstream has higher and higher acceptance of long-term cooperation. The relative supply guarantee of downstream customers with long-term cooperation is significantly better than that of downstream customers without long-term cooperation.” An executive of a silicon material enterprise said,
Obviously, with the price reduction of silicon wafers, the supply and demand of silicon materials has passed the most tense moment.
“The increment in the first half of next year is limited, and the increment brought by the release of new production capacity mainly starts from the third quarter of next year.” Recently, an industry executive told reporters.
The new supply of silicon material next year will still come from China’s major silicon material manufacturers. For example, Tongwei’s production capacity will reach 180000 tons next year, and Daquan new energy 35000 tons will be put into operation by the end of this year. In contrast, the expansion posture of foreign silicon material factories such as Wacker is much lower key.
“Silicon material production still needs cost advantage. The cost of large foreign factories is higher than ours, plus the cost of fixed assets such as depreciation and amortization. Silicon material prices can not provide sufficient safety margin, and they are difficult to have the impulse to expand production.”
There is no suspense that the next two years will usher in the release of silicon supply.
According to the statistics of soby consulting, it is estimated that by the end of 2022, the design capacity of silicon material in China will reach 1027300 tons, an increase of 184% over the end of 2020.
But Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analysts believe that the market should not have too much fear of silicon wafer price reduction. According to its research report, this round of price reduction started by the silicon chip leader can be described as the starting point of “new balance between supply and demand and smooth industrial logic” long-awaited by the industry and capital market. From the perspective of investment, the market’s concerns and fears about “price reduction” have been digested to a great extent in the plate oscillation over the past period of time.
(Li Ming is a pseudonym in the text)
reporter’s notes – silicon wafer price reduction, or upstream and downstream supply and demand game
The main theme of the photovoltaic market in 2021 has always been price rise. The price of silicon materials and silicon wafers has increased. The rising price has also begun to make it more and more difficult for some photovoltaic power stations to access the Internet at parity. When the rate of return on installed capacity is insufficient to support the construction of the power station, the demand begins to shrink and gradually transmits to the upstream.
Finally, Longji and central announced the price reduction of silicon wafers one after another.
A controversial point is, can downstream demand recover after price reduction? If it can be restored, the silicon wafer market will only move from the “golden age” to the “Silver Age”. If the downstream continues to observe and wait for the price game to be in place, the silicon wafer market may experience a cold winter.
In the context of the significant expansion of production capacity of silicon material and silicon wafer enterprises, downstream enterprises seem to have more confidence, waiting for the price to fall to the appropriate position.
The price reduction of silicon wafer leads to changes in the industrial chain, and silicon wafer enterprises tend to be cautious in taking goods
The new capacity has been put into operation successively, and the expectation of silicon material price reduction has been strengthened
(Daily Economic News)
