Today (December 13), the three major A-share indexes opened higher. At the beginning of the session, the Shanghai index fluctuated higher, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index fluctuated back. Subsequently, the stock index consistency pulled up. There were occasional repetitions in the session, and the overall trend was strong. From the disk, the industry and concept plate rose more or less, brokerage stocks and Taiwan, the yuan universe singing opera, electricity and chemical stocks also soared, Baijiu, cultural media and other sectors also highlighted, local money making effect has risen sharply.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that the cross year market has begun. At the same time, the periodic marginal "wide credit" expectation is increasing, which continues to promote the index market with size resonance. The economic work conference promotes the four main lines of the new year's market: 1) pay attention to securities companies, an important carrier of the new year's market interpretation; 2) New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors benefiting from steady growth expectations and undervalued repair; 3) Dual carbon related new energy and coal sectors; 4) Science and innovation growth plate represented by "small high tech".
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] green power
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that China is currently experiencing a critical period of energy structure transformation. From January to September 2021, China's installed capacity of wind power reached 300 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed capacity of power generation reached 280 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. New energy power is unstable. Strengthening the stability and security of new energy power through the power marketization mechanism has become an important part of China's current energy reform mechanism. In October 2021, China raised the floating range of transaction price in the coal-fired power generation market to no more than 20%, which means the further promotion of the power marketization trading mechanism. We believe that promoting the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the development of new energy and promoting the consumption of new energy power in the way of market-oriented and reasonable competition has become one of the important contents of China's energy digitization reform in the future.
Chuancai Securities pointed out that power construction is expected to enter a historical cycle and pay attention to the construction of smart grid terminal. In the context of the energy revolution, the power grid construction end will also be gradually upgraded, and the distribution network will become the core of the power system. On the one hand, the transformation of the power grid end can reduce the power grid loss to a certain extent. Since this year, under the background of "dual control of energy consumption", some regions have limited production and power. Although since October, local production and power restrictions have been loosened, which has corrected the "one size fits all" production and power restrictions and "mobile" carbon reduction in some places, However, under the background of rising power demand, there is a certain pressure on the national power supply, and reducing the power grid loss will save power resources to a certain extent; On the other hand, promoting the digital transformation of power grid and applying cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of things and other technologies to the reform and upgrading of power grid will greatly improve the efficiency of energy services.
Anxin Securities said that on November 24, the central Deep Reform Commission proposed to promote the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the transformation of energy structure and orderly promote the participation of new energy in market transactions. On the same day, the State Grid issued the inter provincial power spot trading rules, proposing that all power generation types and enterprises can participate in inter provincial power spot trading, and encouraging inter provincial green power trading. The inter provincial power spot market adopts the clearing mechanism of centralized bidding, and the unified bidding of coal-fired power generation, nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic and other power sources. Under the high coal price, the transaction price of wind power and photovoltaic is expected to rise, so as to improve the profitability of new energy power generation. []
[subject II ] chemical raw materials
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that after China promised to reach the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the chemical industry entered a new period of sustainable development, giving birth to a number of high growth tracks with high certainty. We are mainly optimistic about two directions: first, new energy materials, degradable materials, recyclable materials and bio based materials serving sustainable development on the demand side. Chemical enterprises have strong competitive advantages from the upstream of the industrial chain; Second, after carbon emission and energy consumption at the supply end become the core constraints, the advantages of light hydrocarbon chemical industry are prominent, and the value of by-product hydrogen has huge room for revaluation.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that it is expected that from the end of 2021 to 2022, with the weakening of the impact of power restriction and other policies, the operation of units will return to stability, the price of chemicals will gradually return to rationality, the overall prosperity of the chemical industry may enter a downward range, and the enterprise profit space will be transmitted downward along the industrial chain. Therefore, we downgraded the industry rating to "synchronous market". In 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: first, under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, and at the same time, the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; Second, rely on new energy, seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen its business cycle and improve its valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; Third, during the "14th five year plan" period, high value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that based on the industrial upgrading and concentration improvement under the background of carbon neutralization, we believe that excellent leading enterprises in the chemical industry are expected to usher in value revaluation: first, several high-quality enterprises in the industry have continuously extended the industrial chain horizontally and vertically from the traditional field to the field of new materials after establishing the national (or even global) competitive advantage of some products. We are optimistic about its continuous growth, continuous improvement of product added value and its ability to go abroad. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) are recommended.
Second, the rise of private oil and gas refining, in addition to the large performance increment to relevant companies, the end products are also transitioning to high-end and differentiation. In addition to the original polyester products, the downstream of olefins and aromatics also began to plan high value-added end products such as engineering plastics, rubber products and other chemical fiber products such as nylon. Recommend Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) and pay attention to Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . []
[theme three ] Baijiu
Baijiu securities Baijiu Baijiu said that the liquor industry boom is still at a high level, the development logic is clear, stock prices experienced a long time after the callback, the valuation entered a reasonable interval, the three quarter performance high-end and popular liquor generally meet expectations, the second high-end is not lack of bright eye performance, the symbolic event catalysis will drive the plate to start the repair market, we are optimistic about the 2022 liquor plate. Focus on investment opportunities for high-end and high-end baijiu.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that Baijiu will welcome the overall rebound at the end of the year, and the upward trend in 2022 will be clearer. The industry is in a vacuum of performance, but the Baijiu plate has been rising for three consecutive weeks. In addition to the valuation switching market at the end of the year, the recent rise of the sector is mainly due to 1) the recent volume and price adjustment of leading liquor enterprises, such as the large-scale volume of 1600 tons in Maotai commercial supermarket channel, the comprehensive payment price of puwu increased to 969 yuan, and the ticket price of Jiannanchun crystal sword increased by 20 yuan; 2) Accelerate the implementation of equity incentive, such as Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) completing equity repurchase and Laojiao equity incentive passing the approval of SASAC; 3) Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) promote the catalysis of events such as stripping the real estate business.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that Baijiu is still the best sub sector of growth certainty. Although some companies controlled goods in the fourth quarter, which may have an impact on the report performance, from another point of view, these companies will make a good start to the Spring Festival in 2022. Because of the change of income structure, the ratcheting effect of Baijiu consumption and the trend of concentration increasing, Baijiu consumption shows strong toughness, especially the high-end liquor. []
[theme four ] securities companies
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that policies are frequent and optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① Recently, a series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center is rising: the wealth management business continues to grow, and channels, products and investment advisers benefit deeply; The scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, the superposition system has been continuously standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increments. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) pointed out that growth laid the investment value + liquidity catalyst, which jointly promoted the valuation performance of securities companies in 2022. Under the high growth prospect constructed by the three business segments dominated by wealth management business, securities companies will realize the rise of long-term valuation center driven by growth, not just the cyclical changes of valuation driven by trading volume and market conditions, which will help to improve the long-term investment value of securities companies' shares. In addition, we expect that there are multiple catalysts in the market, which are also good for the securities market. In 2022, the monetary policy will be stable and loose, and the residents' wealth will continue to flow into the capital market. After the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange, it will enhance the attraction of funds and enterprises, help activate the stock market, and continue to have sufficient liquidity.
Kaiyuan Securities said that the central economic work conference was held in Beijing last week. The conference said that it would continue to implement the active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, the expectation of "stable growth" would be improved, and the period from liquidity easing to credit easing was obviously good for the securities sector; The meeting said that in the medium and long term, the migration of residents' asset allocation from "real estate" to the capital market will continue, which will benefit the wealth management and asset management business of securities companies; The meeting first mentioned the "full implementation of the stock issuance registration system". In 2019 and 2020, the registration system reform was implemented on the science and innovation board and the gem, and the quality of listed companies was improved and the registration system was implemented on the Beijing stock exchange in 2021. From the above statement, we expect that the registration system will be fully implemented on the main board in 2022, which is slightly more than expected. The full registration system will further expand the capital market and benefit the businesses of securities companies, Head securities companies have strong comprehensive competitiveness and benefit more. []
[theme five ] meta universe
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) indicates that the core framework for realizing the meta universe includes: hardware, network layer, computing power, virtual platform, protocols and standards, payment methods, content, services and assets, and consumer behavior. The technical architecture of metauniverse is not complex, but the implementation needs the cooperation of communication technology, computing architecture, algorithm and other technologies, follows the barrel theory, and has remained in the conceptual stage for a long time; With scientific and technological breakthroughs in various fields, the meta universe will eventually move from concept to reality.
The agency further analyzed the market space. In 2025, China's market space will be 340-640 billion yuan. By summing up the sub sectors of metauniverse (social networking, games, short video, e-commerce, etc.), it is estimated that the market space of metauniverse is 340 billion yuan. According to Metcalfe's law, the market space is about 640 billion yuan.
Anxin securities also mentioned that Facebook and Microsoft have entered the market one after another, and the meta universe market has driven the development of VR industry: after Facebook renamed meta and announced to enter the meta universe, on November 2, Microsoft announced at ignite 2021 conference that it plans to realize the meta universe through a series of new applications integrating the virtual environment, so that the digital world can share and communicate with the physical world. Metauniverse is a virtual and real digital world in space dimension and time dimension. It aims to form a virtual reality system including network, hardware interruption and users. It is expected to produce a considerable market in the future. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the market size of the meta universe will reach US $1.5 trillion in 2030.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the repeated epidemic and external environment such as policy supervision in 2021 have formed a short-term suppression on the industry's stock price, and the macroeconomic downward pressure and other factors have also delayed the rhythm of the recovery of the industry's performance. However, we generally believe that the short-term adjustment is still a phased disturbance, and the policy risks have been effectively digested, The new application scenarios represented by metauniverse are also expected to be gradually implemented in the later stage to drive the growth of the industry. Looking forward to 2022, we focus on the following directions: the development of metauniverse is a long-term process, with the continuous development of computing power, algorithm, XR, communication and blockchain technology. []
