Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : next year's macro environment may be more friendly to infrastructure and real estate investment it is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment value of the leading consumer building materials
The central economic work conference was held last week. We believe that the conference further emphasized the importance of steady growth and contributed to the continuous repair of building materials demand side expectations and fundamentals. Compared with the meeting at the end of last year, this central economic work conference has put more emphasis on the uncertain factors facing the economy and put stable growth in the primary position of economic work. Under such a tone, the macro environment next year may be more friendly to infrastructure and real estate investment, which is conducive to home decoration building materials, float glass, photovoltaic glass and cement.
The outlook of the real estate chain is expected to improve marginally. It is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment value of the leading consumer building materials. 1) Since the beginning of this year, the consumption of building materials has been affected by the real estate boom, the capital chain and the cost pressure caused by the continuous rise of bulk commodity prices. At present, the above factors are expected to be gradually improved. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have opened channel changes, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration. The consumption of building materials is still the preferred track in the building materials sector in the medium and long term.
2) Although high raw material prices and tight capital chain drag on investment demand, we expect the subsequent real estate demand to hit the bottom and pick up. At the same time, steady growth is also expected to marginally boost infrastructure demand. The rigidity of glass supply is strong, and the demand was previously affected by downstream funds and limited films. We believe that the current market value of glass leaders has been at a low level, and the demand of subsequent industries is expected to improve; Cement is expected to benefit from the subsequent improvement of real estate demand, the rapid decline of cost is expected to improve unit profit, and the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized in the medium and long term; The demand side of glass fiber is driven by wind power, overseas and other downstream, the increment on the supply side is limited, the tight balance between supply and demand drives the product price to remain high, and the leading performance is expected to exceed expectations.
In terms of investment suggestions, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) are recommended for medium and long-term consumption of building materials. Glass recommended Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (joint coverage with Dianxin), etc; Recommended China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) for glass fiber; Cement recommended Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) . []
Guosheng Securities: policy shift to steady growth! It is recommended to build three main lines of blue chip, affordable housing and new power system
The central economic work conference shows that the current policy focus has shifted to "steady growth", and it is expected that subsequent departments may introduce steady growth measures to cope with the downward pressure on the economy in the first half of next year. In terms of infrastructure construction, it is proposed to carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance. It is expected that the issuance and use of special bonds will be accelerated, and power energy investment is expected to become an important starting point. At present, the overall valuation of central enterprises of infrastructure construction is at the lowest range in history, and the expected improvement of infrastructure construction is expected to promote the valuation repair. It is mainly recommended that Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) .
In terms of real estate, the meeting still emphasized that real estate should not be sold, but also mentioned that policies should be implemented according to the city, and focused on promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing. We expect that the real estate policy has shifted from marginal to loose, and indemnificatory housing is expected to become one of the important drivers of steady growth next year. We mainly recommend China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) international, and Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) leader in steel structure processing in the field of prefabricated buildings Assembled design faucet Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) .
In terms of double carbon, the meeting pointed out that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon will be accelerated. It is expected that the investment in power grid transformation and upgrading, distribution network construction and intelligent construction of power system will be significantly accelerated, with emphasis on the construction targets of new power system Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) and Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , And the garden steady growth leader Dongzhu Ecological Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603359) . []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : Architectural blue chip shows significant valuation elasticity! focus on four main lines
Infrastructure investment has entered the warm-up stage: different from the continuous low expectation of infrastructure investment in the economic upward cycle in 2020, at present, the macro economy has entered the downward cycle, and there is more policy space for the rebound of infrastructure investment. The central economic work conference proposed to carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance, laying the tone. From the financing arrangement of infrastructure investment in the past cycle, innovative funds often play an important role, such as special construction bonds. Due to the short-term constraints of land transfer fees in this round of infrastructure, new types of funds may be the decisive factor for the rebound of infrastructure investment. From the current stage of infrastructure investment cycle, the newly signed orders and investment scale are still in a downward state in the short term, while the policy is gradually entering a warm-up period, waiting for the rebound of orders and the introduction of financing portfolio.
Grasp the valuation premium during the cycle switching period: after the stimulus of RMB 4 trillion in 2008, the demand growth center of the construction industry continued to decline, and the macro small cycle became an important basis for investment. From the perspective of historical experience, architectural blue chips often show significant valuation elasticity in the process of policy reversal and cycle conversion. The policy game may last for a long time in this round of cycle conversion. It is suggested to actively grasp the valuation rebound of undervalued blue chips, and architecture should pay attention to four main lines: 1. Traditional undervalued infrastructure leaders China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) ; 2. China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) benefiting from new infrastructure and large-scale manufacturing upgrading; 3. The reform of state-owned enterprises and the recovery of overseas projects Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) ; 4. In the process of restructuring the pattern of the real estate industry China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , CNOOC real estate, etc. []
Ping An Securities: waiting for the valuation of the real estate industry chain and profit restoration, paying attention to the "carbon neutralization" opportunity
Pay attention to the repair of industrial chain valuation brought by the improvement of real estate enterprise liquidity. 1) Cement: looking forward to 2022, although infrastructure investment is expected to speed up under counter cyclical regulation, considering that the central government adheres to "real estate does not pierce the Meridian" and it still takes time to restore market confidence, it is expected that the downward pressure on real estate investment will be greater, and the overall demand for cement will be weaker than that in 2021. However, considering the decline of coal price, the subsequent profit side is expected to improve.
2) Waterproof: looking forward to 2022, considering the successive price increases of Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) under cost pressure, the profit margin of the industry is expected to improve gradually. At the same time, pay attention to the opportunities for valuation and repair of the waterproof industry brought by the improvement of the capital end of real estate enterprises; In the medium and long term, it is the general trend to raise the standard of the waterproof industry, and the "new waterproof regulations" of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development are also ready to go, which is expected to improve the industry concentration and overall demand.
3) Flat glass: the demand for glass is still under pressure in the short term, but if there is a significant improvement in the capital end of the follow-up real estate, the peak of house delivery in 2022 is expected to continue, superimposed on the release of backlog demand since the second half of the year, and it is expected that the demand for glass will still be supported; However, considering that the price center of glass may fall and the price of raw materials will rise, the profit margin will fall compared with 2021.
In terms of investment suggestions, focus on two main lines: one is the valuation of the real estate industry chain and profit restoration opportunities, including the waterproof sector benefiting from the restoration of real estate policies and the improvement of profit side. It is suggested to focus on the waterproof leaders with the ability to raise prices and underestimate values, such as Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ; For the cement sector benefiting from the restoration of real estate policies, recovery of infrastructure and improvement of profitability, it is recommended to pay attention to the cement leaders with stable performance and undervalued value, such as Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ; And the glass plate benefiting from the continuation of the completion peak; Second, pay attention to the medium and long-term industrial opportunities of green building materials under "carbon neutralization", including the development of energy-saving building glass under the concept of green and low carbon. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading flat glass, such as Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ; As well as the photovoltaic glass plate with good photovoltaic installation demand and good growth, it is recommended to pay attention to the photovoltaic glass leader Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) . []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : the demand for real estate infrastructure is expected to pick up, optimistic about glass fiber and cement
The prosperity of glass fiber industry is high, the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue, and the growth is gradually smoothing out the cycle. We recommend it first. The current valuation of the cement sector is low, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure and loose real estate, and become a driving force for economic growth. The waterproof industry benefits from the increment of bid raising and BIPV driven demand. The bottom signal of consumer building materials is obvious, and the recovery may be large. The key to glass lies in the toughness of the completed area next year, while the water reducing agent lies in the continuous improvement of concentration and the decline of cost center. The priority is glass fiber > cement > waterproof > consumer building materials > glass > water reducer.
Specifically, the growth rate of glass fiber demand is greater than that of supply, the industry pattern can be maintained, and the industry growth is gradually erasing the periodicity: the industry pattern is expected to be maintained when the demand of glass fiber industry is strong, the supply increment is controllable and the slowdown probability is high. In addition, the properties of glass fiber and its composites are gradually improving, the substitution of traditional materials is gradually accelerating, the growth of products is gradually emerging, and the periodicity is gradually weakening.
Cement is more likely to benefit from infrastructure recovery and real estate easing, and is expected to usher in recovery next year: looking forward to next year, the logic supporting cement demand mainly includes: 1. The accelerated issuance of special bonds in the second half of this year is expected to form infrastructure demand in the first half of next year; 2. There will be great downward pressure on the economy next year, Infrastructure and real estate, as a manual tool to drive economic growth, are more likely to be relaxed in policy, and the central government has released easing signals for many times. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is at a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : at present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high
For the cement sector: the central economic work conference proposed to ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, and moderately advance infrastructure investment. Infrastructure construction is "ahead of schedule" and cement demand is expected to improve; The meeting also proposed that achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development, which should be unswervingly promoted. The carbon neutralization policy is conducive to further promote the energy conservation and carbon reduction of cement manufacturers, optimize the industry supply pattern and enhance the competitive advantage of leading industries.
For the glass fiber sector: at this stage, the price of glass fiber roving remains high, and the future demand for new energy vehicles and wind power is good. Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the draft of the measures for the management of the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms to encourage the use of advanced and efficient wind turbines to transform and upgrade wind farms, improve wind energy resources and land utilization, increase the demand for new replacement of wind power, and further increase the demand for glass fiber. From the supply side, the growth of medium and long-term glass fiber production capacity is limited, and the high prosperity of glass fiber industry is expected to continue. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as "recommended".
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually emerging, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing waterproof layers have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) are recommended. The gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) is recommended. The layout of "one body and two wings" of the company is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The leading Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) and Hong Kong stock China Liansu are recommended for the pipe plate. Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) are recommended for coating plate. []
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : the moment when the most obvious impact on profits has passed glass industry concentration still has room to improve
Considering the marginal improvement of real estate policy and the policy of infrastructure support. The waterproof industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2022. At the same time, waterproof standard raising / polymer coiled material will bring considerable incremental space to the waterproof industry. After the implementation of the new standard, the use of coiled materials and coatings will increase by about 35%. It is expected that BIPV will bring a net increment of 7 billion yuan per year, but there are few competitive enterprises participating in polymer coiled materials, so it is a large source of increment for some small base enterprises.
The cement industry is expected to remain in the demand platform period in the next two years, with a small probability of sharp decline. Although real estate / infrastructure can not provide upward imagination space, there is little downward space. At the same time, on the supply side, the actual supply is expected to dynamically match the demand, keeping the price relatively high under the environment of increasingly strict peak staggering and kiln shutdown and higher replacement requirements for capacity replacement methods. With China's leading production capacity involved in Northeast China and Vietnam, the impact of foreign clinker is expected to be reduced. On the cost side, we believe that the coal price is expected to gradually fall with the government's increase in supply guarantee, and the impact on the cement cost will be reduced.
In addition, for the glass industry, on the supply side, since 2021 is the historical high of glass profit, combined with the new capacity replacement method introduced in 2021, the supply rate in 2022 is likely to be marginal tightening. The price center of soda ash is expected to fall, and the most obvious impact on profits may have passed. In the long run, there is still room for improvement in industry concentration.
In terms of investment suggestions and investment targets, we recommend China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) for the glass fiber sector and Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) for the layout of the whole industrial chain. As the beneficiary varieties of waterproof standard raising and rapid penetration of BIPV, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) and Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) also have long-term investment value. In other sectors, we recommend Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) with rapid development of emerging businesses and Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) with sustained and high performance. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: green low-carbon buildings are encouraged by policies great potential for future development
Green low-carbon buildings are encouraged by policies and have great development potential in the future. The 14th five year plan proposes to vigorously develop green buildings, "carbon neutralization" and "carbon peak" have become the focus, and the carbon emission reduction project is expected to usher in high growth. The national energy administration proposed that the total scale of pumped storage put into operation in the 14th five year plan will double that in the 13th five year plan, reaching more than 62 million KW; During the Tenth Five Year Plan period, it will be doubled again to reach about 120 million kilowatts by 2030, and there is great room for the development of pumped storage. In June 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on submitting the pilot scheme for roof photovoltaic development in the whole county (city, district), and carried out the pilot work of promoting roof distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county (city, district). There are 676 pilots in China, and BIPV will usher in rapid development during the "14th five year plan". Prefabricated building can greatly improve construction efficiency and reduce building pollution. It is the development direction of green building. The prefabricated steel structure is encouraged by the policy. At present, the penetration rate is low and has great development potential in the future.
The concentration of the construction industry has increased, the performance has increased rapidly, the valuation is at a historical low, and the price of raw materials is expected to fall, thus thickening the performance. Recommend infrastructure central enterprises, green low-carbon buildings, etc. The market share of new orders signed by the eight central construction enterprises increased from 24.38% in 2013 to 34.49% in 2020, and Q3 further increased to 39.44% in 2021. The leader has great advantages in capital and channels, and is expected to continue the pattern of the strong and the strong. The valuation of the construction industry is in the 0.19% quantile of the past 18 years, the lowest in the primary industry, and the safety margin is high. In 2022, infrastructure leaders and green low-carbon buildings are recommended. China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) are recommended. In addition, Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) , Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co.Ltd(600820) , Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) etc. are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Arts Group Co.Ltd(603017) , China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) , Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co.Ltd(002081) . []
