After three years of structural bull market, the track investment theory has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. In the past, investors met and exchanged greetings with the first sentence: "how many points do you see in the market?" It became the current "which track do you like?"
From the initial core assets to Mao index, and then to today's Ning portfolio, the A-share track often changes, but what remains unchanged is the heart of chasing the track. Finding a good track and snowballing is like fishing in a place with many fish. Where is the fish pond in the A-share market in 2022?
First of all, find out what is a track. According to the definition of securities companies: track refers to the product, technology path and business model with long-term development prospects but low penetration rate, which have been or will be in the foreseeable future driven by policies, consumption habits, product innovation or technological progress, The product development trend, technology path trend and business model trend that can be reflected in the financial statements of listed companies, the rapid outbreak of performance and the continuous attention of investors.
In vernacular, the track is an industry with upward industrial trend and can continue to make a lot of money for a long time in the future. This industry may be a new thing, a subverter of the original industry, or an industry that follows the pace of the times and evolves itself.
Let's look at the future opportunities recognized by the current market.
The first thing that can not be turned around is Baijiu, the " originator" of A share track investment. In 2019 -2020, the liquor stocks completed the rotation from the high-end liquor to the two or three line Baijiu Baijiu, and in 2021, the depth adjustment was achieved, and the overall performance was general. But at the end of the year, Baijiu shares are again in force, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) returns to the 2100 yuan mark, and the market restores the enthusiasm of the Baijiu stock.
Looking forward to 2022, the institutional consensus is that consumer purchasing will continue to be tilted to famous Baijiu, while high-end Baijiu is still the first choice. The performance of second premium liquor is quite flexible. In the three or four line liquor companies, the company can constantly adjust its product structure and actively seek the way of development.
second track is condiment, which is not only a necessities of life, but also has a flavor differentiation and low concentration of industry. It is considered to be the only gold track after baijiu. The investment logic of 2022 comes from the resonance of two aspects. On the one hand, it is the improvement of quantity. The organization believes that the worst period of the industry has passed. With the gradual recovery of economy in 2022, the demand of catering end and C end is expected to recover, which will bring about the improvement of quantity. On the other hand, the price increase brings about price improvement. The joint efforts of the two will drive the obvious improvement of enterprise profits. However, due to the continued cost pressure, the improvement of financial statements in the second half of the year may be more obvious.
the third is new energy, the hottest track in 2021, 10 times the cradle of stocks. mainly includes sea and land wind power, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other industries. Looking forward to 2022, Ping An Securities said that under the background of carbon neutrality, the new energy industry has entered a rapid growth period, and the compound growth rate of new installed capacity of global photovoltaic and Chinese wind power is expected to reach about 30% in the next two years. In terms of wind power, we are optimistic about the valuation expansion of the whole wind power sector, and offshore wind power is expected to usher in a new round of rapid growth; In terms of photovoltaic, emerging application scenarios such as roof distribution and BIPV are expected to rise, the penetration of n-type cells, large silicon wafers and tracking supports is expected to increase, and the concentration of components is expected to accelerate.
the fourth is semiconductors. Among many subdivided fields of the industrial chain, power semiconductors have the highest attention. There are many kinds of power semiconductors, mainly including diodes, thyristors, MOSFETs and IGBTs according to controllability.
In the context of carbon neutralization, new energy applications such as photovoltaic and energy storage will grow rapidly in the next few years, which can promote the rapid development of upstream power semiconductor industry. According to the data, China is the world's largest power semiconductor consumer, with a market size of about US $17.2 billion in 2020 and is expected to grow to US $20.6 billion in 2024.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) indicates that there is a certain degree of differentiation in the current prosperity of power semiconductors. It is recommended to pay attention to manufacturers highly related to the application market such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power and industrial control, such as Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Byd Company Limited(002594) semiconductors, Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) and Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , as well as manufacturers expanding production capacity to obtain a higher market share, such as Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) .
Finally, what new tracks will the market have in 2022 within the predictable range?
Introduce a "beat law". A better track in the medium term should have four basic elements: the industrial trend determined by the story; Performance. Upcoming / ongoing performance; Consensus. Analyst's in-depth recommendation and beautiful Technical Graphics; Subject matter. There is a group of investment targets with large enough stock capacity.
The new shares listed every year will bring new tracks to the market, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) from this perspective, 25 emerging tracks are summarized.
(China Securities Journal)
