In March 3rd, the A share Baijiu sector fell sharply, and 17 Baijiu stocks rose. As of the closing, Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) fell 5.68%, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) fell 4.6%, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) fell 4.85%, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) fell 4.7% Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell 2.43% to close at 1800 yuan.
“This year, the whole consumer goods sector can be said to kill valuations or even kill performance. In 2019 and 2020, the valuation of consumer stocks was mainly due to the ease of overseas liquidity, and the influx of foreign capital into A shares, the most certainty food and beverage sector, especially the Baijiu sector. In 2022, the impact of the Baijiu exchange rate hike was not unexpected,” the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike and foreign capital withdrawal. Today (March 3), Sha Quan, head of investment and research of Beijing Fuguo Datong, also told the daily economic news.
At the news level, the national two sessions will be held in 2022. Recently, Ding zuohong, member of the National Committee of the Chinese people’s Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the board of directors of Yuexing group, proposed that tax tools should be used to cool down “high priced wine” and “sky high priced wine” and set traffic lights for capital. The move also triggered concerns about Baijiu policy level.
“Today, the liquor sector has fallen sharply, which is related to the related hearsay, including CPPCC members’ suggestions on taxation. In recent years, many similar incidents have brought about the interference and influence of the policy to Baijiu Baijiu”. Zhang Kexing, chairman of gray assets, told the reporter of daily economic news.
Baijiu sector fell Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) risk 1800 yuan mark
Today, the Baijiu sector fell, closing as of 17 Baijiu stocks fell, none of the rise. Among them, the leading Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) share price fell by 2.43%, which was close to the integer mark of 1800 yuan. And the Baijiu index dropped by 3.53%. Since 2022, the Baijiu index has dropped by 12.22%.
“Since 2022, the liquor stocks have fallen, I think the most important factor is the pressure of consumption, while the valuation of Baijiu stocks is not low, so there is a continuous decline in the valuation of the Baijiu”. Shaquan said.
“From the logic of the big logic, the development of Baijiu over the past few years is also structural. The scent of the liquor making factory has fallen, and the capital has been mainly involved in Maotai flavor. Even in Guizhou, Maotai flavor liquor has been priced at hundreds or even more than one thousand yuan. It is really very hot and the bubble is very big.” Shaquan said.
“In the past two years, especially in 2021, sauce wine has been too hot, and there have been a lot of sky high priced wines, including channel fever and too many TV advertisements. These must be concerned about policies. With the approaching of the national two sessions, it is not ruled out that there will be some policy pressure.” Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) an investor told reporters.
“Baijiu Baijiu” is “on the other hand, the valuation is on the pressure. Since 2021 we have not made Baijiu, because after the Spring Festival in 2021, the 10 year bond yields rose sharply, the liquor stock DCF (free cash flow discount) valuation model was significantly compressed valuation, so the valuation of liquor stocks is difficult to get up again.” The Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) investors said that the final profit is that Baijiu’s profit turn may take some time, and the influence of various factors has led to Baijiu’s failure over the past year.
some CPPCC members suggested limiting “high priced wine” and “sky high priced wine”
At the news level, on March 2, the “spring sugar meeting”, known as the weather vane of the wine industry, announced that it would be postponed to April. Meanwhile, the national two sessions will be held in 2022. Recently, Ding zuohong, member of the National Committee of the Chinese people’s Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the board of directors of Yuexing group, proposed that tax tools should be used to cool down “high priced wine” and “sky high priced wine” and set traffic lights for capital.
Ding zuohong suggested that the liquor industry take the social average profit as the reference standard for taxation, and the excess part will be heavily taxed. At the same time, taxation should cover the whole industrial chain, not only the manufacturing end, but also the circulation end. Restore the product essence of “wine is for drinking, not for frying”.
However, many people in the wine industry do not agree with Ding zuohong’s proposal.
“Alcohol is not a necessary consumer product related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood. If the price is falsely high for a time, the market will automatically adjust the false fire of wine price in the end.” A Baijiu industry told reporters.
“Who will define what is average profit and what is reasonable profit? These are also questions.” The wine industry also said that the profit of Baijiu is determined by the market, and the future will not be high. The high profit of Baijiu is mainly reflected in the sauce wine. With the release of the huge quantity of sauce and wine in the next year, the price of the sauce will gradually decrease.
As judged by the above people in the wine industry, according to the reporter of the daily economic news, at present, some second and third tier sauce wines have been upside down in the market. The so-called market upside down refers to the price of liquor dealers from the manufacturers, which is higher than the actual price of Baijiu baijiu. Obviously, when the price is upside down, the dealer loses one bottle by selling one bottle.
In addition, some sauce and wine dealers are worried that the industry may usher in a major adjustment and the industry cycle will peak. “If not, it may be 2013 or 2014.” A sauce and wine dealer said.
According to the Research Report of Huachuang securities on March 1, in Shandong market, according to channel research feedback, the first quarter of 2022 was less affected by the epidemic, and the consumption scenes were generally stable. However, affected by economic uncertainty, consumption expectations fluctuated to a certain extent, and the upgrading speed of the price belt was slightly lower than expected.
Zhang Kexing believes that although the consumption of Baijiu is still in the process of declining, but because people keep more “good wine, less alcohol” concept, the quality of Baijiu company will gain a good income growth in the long run, which is also in line with the demand of consumption upgrading of the Chinese people.
“In the medium to long term, even if there is a certain tax effect, some high-end Baijiu with strong pricing power may have strong risk resistance capability, which may be subject to a one-time tax impact and impact in the short term, but it will not change the long-term value of the company.” Zhang Kexing thinks.
