Viewpoint: from a macro perspective, the slowdown in economic growth continues, with great downward pressure. At the same time, liquidity remains stable, but it will take time for easing expectations to improve. At present, the market is dominated by structural market. In the medium term, if inflation falls and liquidity easing expectations increase, the market is still expected to usher in a new trend market. But before that, the market is still uncertain, and the structural market will continue. While paying attention to the overall risk, we can focus on the individual stock market from bottom to top. In the short term, the central bank raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points, which may suppress the targets such as RMB assets. However, under the trend of increasing the expectation of overall monetary easing, the main tone of the market for the better remains unchanged. If there is any adjustment in the short term, it is still a good time to actively buy low allocation.
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both opened low and fluctuated after the opening. Although there was a rebound in the session, the consolidation strength was weak, especially with the decline of heavyweights, the index rebounded weakly, and the overall position of the green disk was maintained. In specific sectors, the media led the rise, with textile and clothing, non-ferrous metals and leisure services leading the rise, while building materials led the decline, while steel, national defense and military industry, non bank finance and computers fell.
On December 9, the people's Bank of China officially announced that it decided to increase the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points from December 15, 2021, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be increased from the current 7% to 9%. It should be pointed out that this and RMB deposit reserve are two different things, two systems. The increase of foreign exchange misdeposit reserve means that the proportion of bank surrender increases and the amount of foreign exchange assets available for activities decreases, which is theoretically unfavorable to banks. However, the focus of this move is to curb the rapid appreciation of the RMB and prevent more hot money inflows. In fact, the reason for the inflow of 30 billion yuan of funds from the north in these two days is the appreciation of the RMB. As a result, banks and other financial stocks may have emotional pressure in the short term. However, investors need not worry. The news has little impact on the stock market as a whole. Of course, after the recent continuous rise, the Shanghai index has reached a high point in recent years. After the large-scale rise of securities companies yesterday, they fell today. In the short term, pay due attention to the withdrawal of the index.
Technically, the short-term daily MACD has been repaired, and the high level is still possible to fluctuate. However, on the weekly line, there has been a high backwardness at the high of 3731 points in the year. If the index breaks through the new high again, the weekly MACD will backwardness again, which will also indicate that the market may be sorted out or even fall. Therefore, the index is not the highest, so as to repair the index; In addition, from the perspective of capital, it is not suitable to catch up in the short term. From the perspective of yesterday's northbound funds, on December 9, northbound funds ran into the market again, with a significant net purchase of RMB 21.656 billion throughout the day, the second largest single day net purchase in history, second only to the net purchase of RMB 21.723 billion on May 25 this year. This is also the fourth time in the history that the single day net purchase amount of northbound funds exceeded 20 billion yuan. The first three times occurred on May 25, January 8 and November 26, 2019 respectively. However, when the net inflow to the North exceeded 20 billion in the first two times of this year, under the upward trend of the index, they all ushered in the downward trend after high shocks. This time, history may repeat itself.
Therefore, after a short-term continuous rebound, investors who have been lurking before can appropriately consider reducing their holdings. Those who don't get on the bus can stay on the sidelines. For the market, after the RRR reduction, the expectation of monetary easing increased, superimposed on the previous fundamental support, and the market trend remained good. If the index correction is still a good time to buy low. In terms of sectors, the market has switched from small to large, the currency is wide, Panasonic's valuation is improved, and the expectation is improved. We can continue to consider the opportunity of making up for the rise of low-level blue chips.
(Jufeng Finance)
