After the recent continuous rebound of a shares, the stock index adjusted today (December 10). The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, and then began to fluctuate. The Shanghai index maintained its position in the green disk repeatedly, with occasional upside in the session, but the strength was weak; The gem index rose smoothly and turned red, with a relatively strong trend throughout the day.
As of the day's closing of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the Shanghai index fell 0.18%, but the weekly K-line still closed five consecutive positives to 3666.35 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.24% to 15111.56 points; The gem index rose 0.22% to 3466.80.
From the disk point of view, the market of light index and heavy individual stocks is staged. In the industry, cultural media, auto parts and wind power equipment are among the top gainers; In terms of theme stocks, salt lake lithium, Yuan universe, film and television concept and blade battery led the rise.
In terms of capital, the central bank announced on December 10 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people's Bank of China launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of RMB 10 billion by means of interest rate bidding on December 10, 2021, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.20%. In view of the maturity of RMB 10 billion reverse repurchase today, the people's Bank of China has realized zero delivery and zero return.
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message plane
1. On December 10, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced that in order to further deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, strengthen the supervision of insurance asset management companies and promote the high-quality development of the insurance asset management industry, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission revised the Interim Provisions on the management of insurance asset management companies (CIRC order [2004] No. 2), The regulations on the administration of insurance asset management companies (Draft for comments) (hereinafter referred to as the regulations) have been formed to solicit opinions from the public.
2. According to the China Automobile Association, the sales of passenger cars decreased by 4.7% year-on-year in November, and the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 121% year-on-year in November.
3. According to the National Bureau of statistics, consumer prices rose 2.3% year-on-year in November. Among them, urban rose by 2.4% and rural rose by 2.2%; Food prices rose by 1.6%, and non food prices rose by 2.5%; Consumer goods prices rose 2.9% and service prices rose 1.5%. In November 2021, the ex factory prices of industrial producers in China increased by 12.9% year-on-year, unchanged month on month; The purchase price of industrial producers increased by 17.4% year-on-year and 1.0% month on month.
4. According to the central bank website, in November, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160.5 billion yuan. At the end of November, the balance of broad money (M2) was 235.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, 0.2 and 2.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively; The balance of narrow money (M1) was 63.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and 7 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year; The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 8.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The net cash invested in the month was 134.8 billion yuan.
institutional view
For the current market, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that at this stage, the market fundamentals support is strong. With the implementation of RRR reduction, the expectation of policy easing is strengthened again, which has boosted the confidence to do long. The next year's market is worth looking forward to. However, after the continuous rise of the short-term index, the subsequent high shock cannot be ruled out. Investors should pay attention to the fluctuations of plates and individual stocks brought by the withdrawal of the index stage. Operationally, for individual stocks held, if the short-term increase is large, they can be appropriately sold or reduced. For investors with low positions, waiting for the index to withdraw will be a good opportunity to participate.
From the perspective of capital flow, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the current round of market is mainly driven by north capital, and the attraction of RMB assets is enhanced, resulting in the accelerated inflow of foreign capital into a shares. In terms of operation, balanced allocation is recommended. We should not only pay attention to the allocation opportunities of low weight blue chips and large consumption, but also pay attention to the low absorption opportunities in the growth direction of digital economy, 5g application and new energy, and cautiously pursue the rise.
Cinda Securities pointed out that there are three main driving forces to support the cross-year Market: Valuation rebound + steady growth + seasonal recovery of resident funds. The first driving force is the "valuation rebound". Since March, the adjustment time and amplitude of some sectors are large, so it is necessary to repair the valuation. The second driving force is the "optimistic policy before and after the new year". With the implementation of the RRR reduction, the new year's market will enter the second wave of rise dominated by stable growth expectations. Only the first two forces can support the market up to January, and then it is necessary to verify the activity of residents' funds. If it can recover, the cross-year market can continue until March. Our current judgment is still optimistic, and we suggest investors to actively participate in the cross-year market.
Previously, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) also mentioned that in recent years, most of the "spring agitation" began to start in December, which was called "cross year agitation" in advance. This year, we think it may be the same. On the one hand, the residual temperature of economy and profitability still exists, and the market fundamentals are still supported in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. On the other hand, the policy has gradually turned positive in the near future, which may also become a catalyst for the industry.
In terms of operation, Cinda Securities pointed out that (1) the demand side of the science and technology sector is still strong, and the current supply and demand has not reversed, but it will face the impact of supply in 2022. The capital expenditure of the electronics and new energy industries increased rapidly in 2021. Although it has not yet been transmitted to the rapid recovery of the growth rate of fixed assets + projects under construction, it is likely to face a large amount of production capacity next year.
(2) The supply of cyclical sectors may be released slightly, focusing on whether there is a sharp drop in demand. The supply and demand pattern may become worse next year, but the current situation is better than that in 2011 (the capacity on the supply side is tight, and the revenue growth on the demand side has not begun to decline due to the rise of prices).
(3) The consumer sector focuses on whether demand and supply deteriorate at the same time. At present, the consumer sector may face a certain demand impact. However, due to the relatively flexible mechanism of capacity adjustment according to demand in the consumer sector, on the other hand, it depends on whether there is a significant expansion of supply or excessive inventory has been accumulated. Overall, the supply of Baijiu is still relatively stable, and the overall risk is controllable. There will be opportunities next year.
