This week, the market surged and the standard reduction was implemented. The work of "six stabilities and six guarantees" was mentioned at the important meeting. After more than four months of shock, the SSE 50 Index stepped out of the breakthrough trend, and the transformation of market style is imminent.
There have been many calls for high-low switching since August. I have the impression that there was a big rebound against the background of the price increase of cement infrastructure in the autumn at the end of August, but then it fell again due to limited power and limited production; Around October, with the formulation of the central bank on the reasonable demand for real estate funds, real estate financial stocks rebounded once, but then the rebound was blocked by the news of real estate tax; This is the third large-scale market attempt to switch between high and low. From the disk this week, the real estate industry chain has a good market from banks to decorative homes. It seems that there is an established trend from quantitative change to qualitative change, and blue chips return or travel in winter.
From the perspective of policy background, in mid November, the high-level held a symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs, at which "six stabilities and six guarantees" were re mentioned, especially "ensuring employment, people's livelihood and market players"; After that, the central bank issued the third quarter monetary policy report, which deleted the words "resolutely do not engage in flood irrigation" and put forward the words "it is more difficult to maintain the stable operation of the economy at present". By the launch of the RRR reduction this week, it can be seen that the adjustment of monetary policy has been started; This week's important meeting proposed that the economy next year should "be stable and make progress while maintaining stability, the monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity." there have been obvious changes in the formulation of some industries.
For example, in terms of the formulation of the real estate industry, since the third quarter, the "real estate without speculation" which has lasted for several years has been significantly reduced, and replaced by the wording of "meeting the reasonable housing demand, meeting the reasonable capital demand of real estate enterprises, and healthy development of the real estate industry in a virtuous circle". These formulations have not been seen for many years. Combined with the current background of steady growth, We believe that the policy environment of real estate infrastructure has changed significantly. After years of emphasis on control, many changes have taken place within the real estate industry, such as financial deleveraging, debt explosion, industry sales freeze, etc. at this time, it seems that the new expansion is based on affordable housing, superimposed with M & A in the industry and a new round of competition in the supply chain of real estate enterprises, The superposition of these policies will be an important change in the reversal of industry fundamentals in this round, and the high-low switching of funds will finally wait for effective external forces.
For the height and time of this round of switching, we think it is at least more than a quarter. The first is to stabilize the economy, followed by the Spring Festival. Therefore, it needs at least one quarter of economic data to warm up to prove the effectiveness of the policy. However, the sales data of real estate infrastructure has not improved at present, so the data after the Spring Festival is the key. At this time, the end of the policy has come and the end of the market has been established this week, Then it depends on the rhythm of various funds. The market develops slowly in hesitation, but these should not affect the final direction of the market.
The cross year market seems to have started. After experiencing the consumption market in 2020 and the new energy market in 2021, it seems that the most cost-effective is the undervalued blue chip. Driven by the policy, this round of switching is natural and waiting for the flowers to bloom.
(the author is the director of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Shanghai Research)
(Volkswagen Securities Journal)
