Since December, the market has been “abnormal”. The finance and consumption that had fallen a lot have risen again, while the hot sectors such as new energy and military industry have cooled significantly during the year. At the end of the year, when the “tail raising market” is coming, has the style switching really begun?
“big index” comeback
Following the highlight performance in 2020, the large cap stock index was quite suppressed in the first 11 months of this year. In December, the large cap stock index dominated again.
According to the data of East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) choice, among the important indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges this month, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and China Stock Exchange 100, representing the large cap stock index, led the increase, both of which rose by more than 5%. In the first 11 months, Shanghai 50 and China 100 fell sharply, both of which fell by more than 10%.
In contrast, the CSI 1000, which represents the small cap index, performed strongly in the first 11 months, with a cumulative increase of even more than 20%. This month, the index was weak, down 1.31%.
the “big market value” has resumed its upward trend
In fact, in addition to the differences before and after the size index, this difference is more obvious from the rise and fall performance of individual stocks.
Data show that in the first 11 months of this year, there are obvious signs that the smaller the market value, the better. For example, for companies with a market value of more than 100 billion, the median increase or decrease in the first 11 months was – 6.04%; Small cap stocks with a market value of less than 5 billion rose or fell by a median of 8.86%.
In December, contrary to the previous 11 months, the larger the market value, the better the performance. The median rise and fall of companies with a market value of more than 100 billion this month was 4.74%, while the median rise and fall of small cap stocks with a market value of less than 5 billion was – 0.22%.
consumer stocks performed more actively
Like the above indexes and individual stocks, the industry sector also shows signs of “rising more, falling more, and rising more”, but the previously suppressed leisure services, food and beverage, etc. are more active.
From the perspective of 28 industries at Shenwan level, the trend of 15 industries in December was opposite to that in the previous 11 months, accounting for 62.5%. In particular, the top ten industries rose this month, of which 7 fell in the first 11 months.
Specifically, leisure services, which rose the most this month, led the decline in Shenwan industry in the first 11 months. In addition, household appliances, food and beverage, real estate, non bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, which fell sharply in the first 11 months, rose one after another this month.
On the contrary, in the first 11 months, the electrical equipment (mainly electric equipment and new energy) ranked first in Shenwan industry, with a sharp increase of 62.57%, showing a weak performance since December, with a cumulative decrease of 2.75%. There are also non-ferrous metals, defense and military industries, automobiles and other previously strong sectors, which have also weakened since December.
do you really want to switch the market style?
In view of such obvious differences between the recent disk and the previous changes, many investors are curious whether the market style will change again, especially whether consumer stocks will make a comeback.
From a comprehensive institutional point of view, there have been more voices indicating that the style should be switched recently, and most of them are optimistic about the obvious withdrawal of consumer blue chips.
For example, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the Income Differentiation of active public offering products during the year is very obvious. The average yield of the first 20% and the last 20% products are 37% and – 7% respectively, with a difference of 44%.
With such extremely differentiated market characteristics, from the perspective of institutional layout next year, with the end of the ranking at the end of the year, this year’s high boom varieties are easy to quickly overdraw the valuation space for a long time in the future, and the consensus of market funds on low-level blue chips will be further strengthened.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) thinks there are three aspects that can be focused on: first, the low expectations of basic products, such as small household appliances, Baijiu, tax-free, medical equipment, auto parts and so on. Second, the varieties with relatively low valuation, such as high-quality real estate developers, Hong Kong stock Internet leaders, etc; Third, high boom varieties with relatively low stock prices after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment.
Some people continue to be optimistic about the high growth and high prosperity stocks represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . Du Meng, deputy general manager and investment director of Shanghai Investment Morgan fund, believes that China’s next cycle is the energy cycle, that is, new energy is the main body, including new energy vehicles and other industries worthy of attention. The reason is that China’s next round of economic growth may mainly rely on the adjustment of energy structure under the dual carbon goal, which is a visible and relatively large industrial opportunity.
Of course, some people believe that growth and value will develop in balance in 2022. According to the first financial report, a number of investment managers of Chinese and foreign-funded asset management institutions interviewed recently believe that 2022 is expected to usher in a pattern of “ningmao” going hand in hand.
Do you think this will be a signal of style switching for the recent market’s very different performance from that before?
