study and judgment of the general trend: thousands of sails pass, thousands of trees spring. the monarch strategy proposed the “cross year market” in early November. From the perspective of nearly one month and one week, the Shanghai index rose by 4.98% and 1.63% respectively. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets traded trillion transactions for 36 consecutive days, and the upward growth trend is still continuing. Looking forward to the future, the reduction of economic uncertainty will lead to the decline of risk assessment and the rise of risk preference. On the one hand, the 2021 economic work conference pointed out that the economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation, and steady growth has become the primary goal of economic work. With the strengthening of fiscal policy expenditure and the front pace, the monetary policy is stable and wide, superimposed with the endogenous force of structural industrial policy, and the pessimistic expectation of economic downturn is expected to ease. On the other hand, it emphasizes the “correct understanding” of a series of important issues such as dual control of energy consumption and carbon neutralization, positive role of capital and savage growth, which effectively reduces the uncertainty of market concerns from the perspective of policy correction. Based on the above, we believe that with the gradual clarity of the core contradiction, the downward expectation of profit is gradually repaired, and the denominator is pushing the cross year market to a higher level.
a virtuous circle of real estate and the activation of financial value. the current real estate problem is the biggest resistance to the market start of the financial sector, but recently, with the gradual improvement of real estate risk expectations, the undervalued financial direction represented by securities companies has high allocation value. Specifically, the policy level emphasizes that the transformation of medium and long-term economic momentum is firm and unswerving, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies. On the whole, within the framework of “real estate without speculation”, it focuses more on improving the financing environment for the supply side and dredging the internal operation of the industry. The structural “loose” + virtuous cycle in the real estate field complement each other, and the negative feedback effect of real estate is expected to be broken, so as to activate the allocation value of the large financial sector.
not to be underestimated: the repair power of consumption. the weak recovery signal from consumption implies the recovery of mass consumption and the resilience of the real estate chain. Among them, the social zero in October was 4.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month on month, which was higher than the market expectation as a whole. This weak recovery reflects: 1) the impact of the epidemic gradually subsided in October, and catering consumption showed signs of recovery; 2) The gap between consumption above the quota and the overall social zero recovery has converged; 3) The necessary consumption is still stable, and the marginal increase of communication equipment, cosmetics and petroleum products is high; 4) The pressure on the completion end and commercial housing sales end has not seriously dragged down sales, and the overall toughness still exists. Starting from the logic of “export → manufacturing → employment → consumption”, in view of the three factors of stable policy growth, double control and correction, and export toughness supporting employment in 2022, consumer demand can be repaired. In the future, the consumer market will be opened by the main line of price rise. With the higher than expected toughness of demand, the consumer market will expand and spread.
economic uncertainty is reduced, risk assessment is down and risk appetite is up, helping the cross year market. with the convening of important meetings, the core of the policy is to stabilize the economy, to follow the steady growth order and the extent of pessimism correction. It recommends: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom and recommend the direction of Baijiu, pig, household appliances, furniture and social service / tourism that are supported by the performance and are downplayed. 2) Finance: securities companies and banks; 3) Technology manufacturing: consumer electronics and semiconductors; 4) New energy: high prosperity directions such as photovoltaic and new energy vehicles.
(Research on Chen Xianshun’s strategy)
