The stock index rose 1.63% this week. How will A-Shares run next week? We have summarized the latest investment strategies of major institutions for investors’ reference.
Xing Zheng strategy: four main lines boosted by the cross year market economic work conference
The cross year market has begun. When the market fluctuated sharply on November 10, we took the lead in judging that “the cross year market is about to start” and “cherish the long window at the end of the year” and recommended the undervalued sectors represented by real estate and infrastructure at the bottom. Since then, the cross-year market has opened slowly. After the central bank’s monetary policy report on November 19, we further suggested that “it will be a wave of size resonant index market” and suggested that “we should pay attention to securities companies as the carrier of market interpretation”. In the December monthly report, we once again stressed that under the warming expectation of wide currency and wide credit, we continue to be optimistic about the cross year market of size resonance and index level. At present, the cross year market has been launched and has gradually become a market consensus.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the relay of incremental funds and the continuation of blue chip market
The policy setting of the central government for steady growth and the joint efforts of future policies will promote the economic recovery beyond expectations. Intensive policy implementation and data disclosure will significantly boost market confidence. Abundant market liquidity will support the relay of incremental funds. The cross year blue chip market dominated by institutional funds is expected to continue for several months. First of all, the policy setting of the central economic work conference made it clear to stabilize growth in order to cope with the superposition of “triple pressures” in economic operation; Structural policies will be rebalanced, paying more attention to the coordination between short-term pressure and medium-term objectives; At the same time, the policy puts more emphasis on implementation, and the future policy synergy is expected to promote the economic recovery beyond expectations. Secondly, the overall economic data gradually disclosed shows that the economic growth toughness in the fourth quarter is strong. At the same time, the policy alleviates the real estate anxiety, the monetary policy is intensively implemented, the subsequent credit repair will last for several quarters, and the market risk appetite will continue to improve. Finally, the macro liquidity is still abundant, the market liquidity is extremely abundant, the relative attractiveness of RMB assets is still strong, and the northward capital will maintain a sustained net inflow. The reallocation of Chinese institutions and cross-year financial funds will form an incremental capital relay and drive the position adjustment of stock funds. The consensus of the market on low-level blue chips will be further strengthened. The high-low switching in the market structure will continue, and it is still recommended to firmly focus on the “three low” layout and grasp the cross-year blue chip market that lasts for several months.
West China strategy: policy “stable” cross year market continuation
“Stability” is the key word of the central economic work conference. Against the background of the global epidemic and the multiple pressures on China’s economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, properly advance the policy force, smooth the economic fluctuations before the 20th National Congress, and keep the economic operation within a reasonable range. In the current vacuum period of corporate profits, “loose liquidity + steady growth policy” has become the driving force for A-Shares to interpret the “cross year market”. The follow-up counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies support the economy, and the market risk appetite is expected to rise. Maintain our bullish view on a shares, and the structural market of A-Shares continues. In terms of December alone, A-Shares are expected to continue the cross-year market, and do not catch up or fall on the plate / individual stocks. Specific to the industry configuration, there are three main investment lines.
CICC strategy: the main line of A-share market transaction turns to “steady growth”
The core change in the market this week is the strengthening of the expectation of stable policy growth, and the market performance continues to evolve around this main line. The central economic work conference continued the spirit of the previous meeting of the Political Bureau and stressed that we should continue to do a good job in the work of “six stabilities” and “six guarantees”. Next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. Looking ahead, we believe that we still need to continue to pay attention to the “reversal” of the global economic cycle and new changes in the epidemic situation. At present, China’s capital market is in a more favorable environment compared with the world. Under the expectation of “steady growth”, we should pay attention to the progress of policy countercyclical adjustment in the future. In terms of style, with the possible implementation of social finance credit and financial planning and deployment, we believe that the main line of “stable growth” will continue. Since the beginning of the year, some relatively strong manufacturing growth styles may be relatively backward temporarily, and the market style may temporarily show a pattern of “big strength and small weakness”.
GF strategy: the profit “vacuum period” market can still be
The market can still be, and it is recommended to allocate the high and low areas in a balanced manner. The total volume setting of the central economic work conference is basically consistent with the meeting of the Political Bureau (see 12.6 “stability first”). At present, to the beginning of the 22nd year, A-Shares are in the “vacuum period” of profit, the stable growth expectation is confirmed, and the market is still in the stage of profitability. When the microstructure is in a relatively healthy range, it is suggested that the industry allocation should be balanced in high and low areas: (1) securities companies with liquidity + marginal improvement in fundamentals under the RRR reduction; (2) New energy (wind power, photovoltaic power plants / modules, new energy vehicles – parts) with resonance between supply and demand and military industry with supply and demand gap under the steady growth of double carbon wide credit + new infrastructure; (3) Business expectation and fund allocation hit the bottom, and white electricity and food processing expected to benefit under ppi-cpi transmission. Gold configuration double bottom + price increase clue (food processing).
Monarch strategy: thousands of sails over thousands of trees
Guojun strategy put forward the “cross year market” in early November. From the perspective of nearly one month and one week, the Shanghai index rose by 4.98% and 1.63% respectively. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets traded trillion transactions for 36 consecutive days, and the upward growth trend is still continuing. Looking forward to the future, the reduction of economic uncertainty will lead to the decline of risk assessment and the rise of risk preference. On the one hand, the 2021 economic work conference pointed out that the economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation, and steady growth has become the primary goal of economic work. With the strengthening of fiscal policy expenditure and the front pace, the monetary policy is stable and wide, superimposed with the endogenous force of structural industrial policy, and the pessimistic expectation of economic downturn is expected to ease. On the other hand, it emphasizes the “correct understanding” of a series of important issues such as dual control of energy consumption and carbon neutralization, positive role of capital and savage growth, which effectively reduces the uncertainty of market concerns from the perspective of policy correction. Based on the above, we believe that with the gradual clarity of the core contradiction, the downward expectation of profit is gradually repaired, and the denominator is pushing the cross year market to a higher level.
Guosheng strategy: first establish and then break beta Market
Since this year, the Shanghai 50 / Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, which are mainly blue chip in value, have made obvious adjustments following the credit contraction. The rise and fall are of the same origin. If the m1-ppi scissors difference continues to repair after confirming the inflection point, the upward space of the weight index is also expected to open. We believe that with the broadening of credit conditions in the medium term and the recent resonance of domestic and foreign funds, value stocks are expected to lead the beta market over the next year. On the whole, the short-term winning rate of big finance is higher and the medium-term sustainability of consumption is stronger. First stand and then break, internal and external resonance, steady growth, leading beta market over the next year. （1） The steady growth direction has been established and initial results have been achieved. The credit conditions are expected to stabilize in a real sense at the end of the year. In the medium term, we will continue to be optimistic about value restoration, and recommend food and beverage, consumer services, high-quality banks and power operation and maintenance; （2） New and old infrastructure development direction, the first is: construction / building materials, scenery storage, UHV; （3） Upstream cost reversal auto parts, small household appliances, and independent main line military industry.
YueKai strategy: “tail raising market” comes as promised, focusing on profit driven valuation switching
Looking forward to the future, the A-share market is still expected to usher in a “tail raising market” under the multiple expectations of policy + liquidity + marginal improvement of economic data. Near the end of the year, A-shares will face valuation switching. We sort it out from this perspective: in terms of total volume, the A-share economic cycle will be downward in 2022 (both kichin short cycle and zhugra medium cycle are in the second half), and profits may be under pressure, On the one hand, it is subject to the downward pressure on the economic aggregate. On the other hand, it is based on the impact of the high base effect in the same period last year. In this context, we believe that there are two investment directions in the near future: one is the opportunities brought by the improvement of performance expectations; Second, continue to pursue high economic uncertainty.
