This week, the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR reduction of 0.5 percentage points. A-Shares fluctuated upward, and the Shanghai index rose 1.63% this week.
In terms of news, the central economic work conference was held from December 8 to 10, setting the main tone of “stability first and seeking progress in stability” in economic work next year.
The agency believes that the implementation of intensive favorable policies and abundant market liquidity will promote the development of the cross-year market. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to pay attention to food and beverage, household appliances and new energy infrastructure in line with the “double carbon” policy planning.
major events affecting investment
central economic work conference held
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The meeting demanded that next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, that all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, that all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and that the policy force should be appropriately advanced.
SASAC: study and introduce policies and measures conducive to the steady growth of central enterprises
On December 11, the Party committee of SASAC held an enlarged meeting to convey and study the spirit of the central economic work conference and study and implement measures in combination with the actual situation of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises. The meeting stressed that we should take promoting the high-quality and stable growth of state-owned central enterprises as the primary goal, study and introduce policies and measures conducive to the stable growth of central enterprises, promote the upgrading of enterprises’ quality and efficiency, and make positive contributions to maintaining the economic operation within a reasonable range.
Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange plans to revise the stock listing rules
On December 10, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges solicited public opinions on Revising the stock listing rules. At the same time, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges integrate the regulatory system of listed companies. After merger and integration, the number of main boards in Shanghai stock market has been reduced from more than 100 to 37; The number of self regulatory rules in Shenzhen was reduced to 36, and the number was reduced by more than 70%.
the central bank will raise the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio by 2 percentage points
In order to strengthen the management of foreign exchange liquidity of financial institutions, the people’s Bank of China has decided to increase the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points from December 15, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be increased from the current 7% to 9%.
institutional strategy
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the cross year blue chip market is expected to continue for several months
The policy setting of the central government for steady growth and the joint efforts of future policies will promote the economic recovery beyond expectations. Intensive policy implementation and data disclosure will significantly boost market confidence. Abundant market liquidity will support the relay of incremental funds. The cross year blue chip market dominated by institutional funds is expected to continue for several months. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to focus on the varieties with relatively low valuation and high boom varieties with relatively low adjusted share price.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the main line of market transaction turns to “steady growth”
The expectation of “steady growth” is strengthened, and attention is paid to the progress of counter cyclical adjustment of policies in the future; In terms of style, the main line of “steady growth” will continue, and the performance of some relatively strong manufacturing growth styles since the beginning of the year may be relatively backward temporarily. It is suggested to pay attention to three directions: first, the marginal change of policy or the potential areas of support; Second, the middle and lower reaches of the consumer sector, which has been adjusted this year, with low valuation and clear medium – and long-term prospects; Third, the manufacturing industry with high prosperity.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : four main lines actively participate in the cross year market
At the same time, the periodic marginal “wide credit” expectation is increasing, which continues to promote the market with large and small resonance. It is suggested to grasp the four main lines and actively participate in the cross year market: first, the brokerage sector, an important carrier for the interpretation of the cross year market; Second, new and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors that benefit from stable growth expectations and undervalue repair; Third, new energy and coal sectors related to “double carbon”; Fourth, the scientific innovation growth plate represented by “small high tech”.
Oriental Fund: there are valuation repair opportunities in the consumer sector at the end of the year
The consumer sector will gradually get out of the haze, and there is an opportunity for valuation repair at the end of the year. From the perspective of medium and long term, some emerging consumer industries, such as medical beauty and cosmetics, will highlight the medium and long-term value of leading companies due to the improvement of the pattern brought by the tightening of industrial policies; The profit model of Baijiu industry has not changed. The current valuation is at the level of the historical center. The high-end Baijiu company still has certain long-term and long-term allocation value.
China Merchants Fund: the bond market continues to be bullish in the medium term
The yield of short-term bond market is still focused on the short-term capital interest rate. Some of the funds released by the recent RRR reduction will be used by financial institutions to repay the due medium-term loan facility (MLF), and some will be used by financial institutions to supplement long-term funds to better meet the needs of market players. From the perspective of adhering to the supply side structural reform and reducing the financing cost of the real economy, reducing LPR interest rate may become an option for future monetary policy, which will help the bond market continue to be bullish in the medium term.
China Europe Fund: the science and technology track is expected to continue to maintain a high boom
Consumption is expected to recover with the stabilization of the economy, and consumer stocks are expected to have a large amount of terminal sales before the Spring Festival in previous years. It is suggested to pay attention to industries such as food, beverage and household appliances; The starting point of steady economic growth may fall in the new energy infrastructure in line with the “double carbon” policy planning. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of power construction, transmission and distribution equipment and new energy power station operation; Loose monetary policy is directly beneficial to the improvement of profitability in the financial industry, especially in the non banking sector. After nearly two years of downturn in the insurance industry, there is a strong expectation of improvement in the growth rate of offline premium income next year.
(China Securities Journal)
