Fourth quarter, A share market style switching on schedule, good news, Baijiu and other consumer sectors and real estate undervalued plate performance eye-catching.
Many industry insiders pointed out that with the gradual improvement of liquidity, A-Shares are expected to usher in a certain investment window at the beginning of next year, and the probability rate fluctuates upward. In terms of product layout, the fund company will also choose the scientific and technological growth plate and the oversold consumption blue chip plate for two-way layout.
A-Shares may usher in the investment window
industry rotation characteristics are expected to continue
The central bank's RRR reduction was implemented, and the central economic work conference set the tone of "taking the lead in stability and seeking progress in stability" in 2022 to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, so that the capital market has expectations for the development from "wide currency" to "wide credit".
Cathay Pacific Fund said that the implementation of RRR reduction can enhance the willingness and ability of banks to provide credit and promote them to better support the real economy. Under the background of economic downturn, liquidity has gradually improved, the "stagflation expectation" has cooled down, and A-Shares may usher in a certain investment window. What is more friendly to the equity market is the "wide credit" stage. In the medium term, we should pay attention to whether there is greater upward flexibility in the growth rate of "wide currency", that is, social financing and loans, so as to judge the changes of market liquidity in the medium term.
YONGYING Fund pointed out that since the second half of this year, the monetary policy has been loose but restrained, and the economic expectation is relatively weak, resulting in the tangled state of the market. Next year, although monetary policy tends to be loose, it will still be relatively restrained due to external constraints. The characteristics of industry rotation may continue, and it is unlikely that a single sector will have a unilateral trend.
ChuangJin Hexin Fund believes that the overall risk of the A-share market in the first quarter of next year is small, and the economy is still in the process of finding and building the bottom. The differentiation between PPI and CPI will continue, and the conduction process is slow. Based on this, in the first quarter, A-Shares will show a narrow range shock situation with support and difficult to rise sharply.
After horizontal comparison, Nord Fund believes that China's economy may excel in the world. "One of the reasons is that external economies, especially the US economy, may experience a slowdown process. Its rhythm is just misplaced with that of China. At the same time, it will also be superimposed with intermittent tightening of the Federal Reserve and the disturbance of the epidemic. The performance of A-Shares may outperform the mainstream market indexes, especially the stocks with high growth. In the past 12 months, these stocks (except those related to popular tracks) The shrinking valuation will open up space for the subsequent rise of share prices. "
Song Yang, chief market officer of Pengyang fund, believes that if the expected fulfillment of the RRR reduction and the revision of real estate financial policies are further transmitted, the growth rate of social financing will stabilize and recover, which will promote the stock market.
In the view of Bodao fund, the market shock may increase significantly in the first quarter of next year, and structural opportunities are more critical. Focus on economic growth and inflation, and the impact of such a combination on the direction of the stock market.
Cinda Aoyin fund judged that the market in the first quarter or fluctuated upward, and the industry rotation is still more frequent. In terms of product layout, it mainly focuses on science and technology theme funds and wide base products, and continues to focus on growth style and value style.
growth style is still the main investment line
style is expected to be relatively balanced and convergent
In the specific industry sector, industry insiders believe that growth next year is still an important main line, but the style may be relatively balanced and convergent, and the undervalued sector is expected to usher in the opportunity of valuation repair in the short term.
Yang Jianhua, investment director of Great Wall Fund, said that the current high-quality growth pursued by the market is consumption upgrading and manufacturing upgrading. "At present, there is an urgent need for breakthroughs in the high-tech field and high-end manufacturing field. The state should break through the" neck "project, including new materials, new technologies and new equipment. It will give many support policies in terms of resources and taxes. Among them, more great companies will be born and many companies will continue to grow. It will be the focus of the A-share market for a long time." Yang Jianhua revealed that he is preparing for investment next year, focusing on industries that have been adjusted in place this year and whose fundamentals may improve next year. "This year, the production and operation activities in the middle reaches have been greatly affected by factors such as rising costs and power cut. By next year, these aspects may be reversed, the prices of coal, steel and iron ore will fall, and the cost pressure will be reduced. If the demand picks up again, the performance of these manufacturing companies in the middle and lower reaches will rise significantly."
In addition, he also pays attention to investment opportunities in automobile electrification and intelligence. Electric vehicles have been performed extremely in the market, and the focus will gradually shift to intelligence. This is a long-term theme, because there is still a long way to go for automatic driving, and there are many technologies to break through. It is not only the upgrading of manufacturing industry, but also the upgrading of consumption.
Turning to the consumer sector, Yang Jianhua believes that there will be more overall opportunities next year than this year. "First of all, we believe that the epidemic prevention and control next year will not be more stringent than this year, and the control over the sporadic outbreak and its impact on the economy will be less than this year; second, the base number this year is relatively low, next year should be restorative growth, and the profits of consumer companies will be better than this year; third, in the short term, the valuation has been adjusted to a more attractive position."
ChuangJin Hexin fund reminds that in the process of continuing structural investment opportunities, when selecting the high-profile sector, it needs higher research depth and finer investment sensitivity than this year. In some specific sectors, it is expected that the undervalued sector may only be a phased opportunity, and the longer-term opportunities still appear in new energy vehicles, high-end manufacturing and cutting-edge technology. However, the competition in these sectors is intensified, and the differentiation of individual stocks is expected to be more obvious than this year.
Bodao fund suggests looking for investment opportunities in the price increase chain while the economy slows down, including downstream consumer goods with improved profit margin, midstream industrial chain with rebounded demand and improved cost, and upstream cyclical goods with good long-term supply and demand structure.
Cathay Pacific Fund pointed out that next year, on the one hand, we can pay attention to scientific and technological growth stocks such as chips, military industry and new energy vehicles; On the other hand, with the expected warming of steady growth, the oversold blue chips such as finance and consumption in the early stage are expected to be repaired.
YONGYING fund expects that the growth sector will still be the main investment line next year, but the style is more balanced and convergent than this year. PPI is expected to peak and fall, terminal demand will be moderately repaired, and the overall profit growth of the whole a sector will decline next year, but the differentiation of upstream, middle and downstream will not be as extreme as this year. Due to the decline of overall profit growth, the relatively high growth plate next year is still scarce.
Song Yang predicted that the prosperity of the new energy and military industry sectors will continue next year, and the capital market policy will continue to benefit the brokerage sector. With the recovery of the epidemic, the consumer sector will also have the opportunity to layout. In addition, there is a consensus on investment opportunities focusing on the growth sector in the environment of loose liquidity due to the slowdown of economic structural adjustment. In addition, with the gradual easing of real estate regulation policies, it is good for the undervalued banking sector, real estate leaders and the household appliance sector in its industrial chain.
(China Fund News)
