The bottom of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rebounded, and the share price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) returned to 2000 yuan. It seems that it will take some time for the market value of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to exceed Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . After a long correction, the Mao index has rebounded slightly since December and outperformed the market.
wine enterprises raise prices
Baijiu index approaching
Recently, many Baijiu enterprises announced the price increase. According to relevant reports, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) or plans to announce at the end of the year that the eighth generation products will be upgraded from 999 yuan / bottle to 1089 yuan / bottle; The invoice price of Jiannanchun's high-end product crystal Jiannanchun will be increased by 20 yuan per bottle; At the end of 11, Shandong Jingzhi Baijiu Sales Co., Ltd. announced the announcement of the price increase of products, and decided to raise the invoicing price of several series products since December 1, 2021.
Manufacturers give various explanations for the reasons for the price rise, such as the shortage of products, the rise in the price of raw materials, etc.
The price increases of liquor enterprises have indeed boosted the share prices of listed companies. Securities times, data treasure statistics, as of December 10th, Baijiu index was at its all-time high, rising by nearly 12% in December, and the cumulative increase over 6% last week.
Mao index component stocks
experienced a sharp correction during the year
Driven by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Baijiu index has risen nearly 5% since December. Among the constituent stocks, gainers accounted for nearly 80%. More than 10 stocks such as Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) increased by more than 10% in December, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) increased by more than 8%.
The Mao index began to adjust after hitting a record high in February this year, with a cumulative decline of more than 16% in June and July. Investors still remember the sharp decline of various "Mao". According to the statistics of data treasure, from July 1 to November 30, the Mao index callback was 13.25%.
Among the constituent stocks of Mao index, more than half of them fell by more than 10%. The share price of Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) halved, Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) fell by more than 30%, and the share prices of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) rose by more than 40%.
In terms of the reasons for the correction, the accumulated rich profit margins in the early stage and the overvaluation are important factors. For example, the P / E ratio of Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) with the largest decline was close to 200 times on June 30. After adjustment, the current P / E ratio returned below 100 times, and the valuation of Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) was also greatly discounted.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell from a high of more than 2600 yuan to a minimum of more than 1500 yuan, and the share price retreated sharply. Professionals say that in the short term, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 15% annual profit growth and high static valuation are not recognized by the environment this year. Coupled with huge profit margins, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) share price retreat is reasonable.
Mao index and Ning combination
who is stronger
It is noteworthy that during the sharp correction of Mao index, Ning portfolio performed more strongly. From July 1 to November 30, the range of Ning portfolio decreased by less than 1%, significantly outperforming Mao index. Some investors believe that the Ning portfolio, regarded as the golden track, has more investment value than the Mao index, the core asset.
Is that true? In terms of market performance, the recent rise of Ning portfolio has been weak, with an increase of only 0.57% in December. Mao index has surpassed Ning portfolio this month.
From a fundamental point of view, the latest median P / E ratio of Mao index constituent stocks is less than 50 times, and the median P / E ratio of Ning portfolio is twice that of the former. In the historical low period, the median valuation of Mao index component stocks was only 30 times, but the low point of Ning portfolio was also about 50 times. Only from the perspective of valuation, Mao index is more attractive than Ning portfolio.
From the perspective of growth, the agency predicts that in terms of the median increase in net profit in 2021, Mao index is less than 30%, and Ning portfolio is close to 50%. The growth performance of Ning portfolio is better than Mao index, which is also an important reason for the relatively stable performance of Ning portfolio since July.
In terms of investment return, from 2019 to 2021 (estimated based on the forecast data in 2021), the return on net assets (ROE) of Mao index constituent stocks exceeded 20% for three consecutive years, but the return on net assets (ROE) of Ning portfolio was lower than 20%. According to the forecast data of 2021, the median roe of Mao index constituent stocks reached 21.03%, and that of Ning portfolio was 17.05%, which decreased significantly compared with the previous two years.
Overall, after the valuation, Mao index is slightly better than Ning portfolio, but it is undeniable that both portfolios are relatively high-quality assets of a shares.
overseas fund holdings
Ning portfolio component stock
Recently, Allianz China, the largest overseas Chinese equity fund, has reduced its holdings of constituent stocks of Ning portfolio. In October, Allianz China A-share fund reduced its holdings of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) by 18.58% and 11.92% respectively, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) to varying degrees. For the reduction of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , according to the fund's information Phi materials, it may be worried about the expectation of share price overdraft.
According to the statistics of databao, the component stocks with a share price of more than 100 Yuan account for 85%, and the stocks with a share price of more than 200 yuan account for 44%. The lowest P / E ratio is close to 40 times and the highest is more than 250 times. The reduction of the fund's holdings and high valuation all reveal that the constituent stocks of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Ning portfolio have indeed risen.
This is also the indirect reason for the rise of blue chips led by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . Analysts said that near the end of the new year, with the motivation of falling into the bag, the rotation of the plate will be alleviated, and defensive large-scale blue chips may usher in opportunities, but the main logic of the market will not change. It is expected to usher in a pattern in which Ning and Mao will keep pace in 2022, and the performance of growth stocks and value stocks will be more balanced.
12 ningmao shares
roe exceeds 20% for three consecutive years
Whether institutions, professionals, or even Buffett, stock selection attaches great importance to valuation and return on investment. This is also the reason why Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) still enjoys much fund. After all, its 50 times value is not too high in the index of Mau and baijiu. Superimposed on the upgrading of consumption and the imbalance between supply and demand, these stocks with relatively reasonable valuation and high return on investment will naturally become the meat and potatoes of various funds.
According to the statistics of databao, up to now, the roe in 2019 and 2020 is more than 20%, and the predicted roe in 2021 is also more than 20%. There are 12 component stocks of the two major portfolios with the latest valuation less than 50 times, of which only Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) of Ning portfolio is selected.
Since the beginning of this year, Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) have had a large correction range, with a decline of more than 25%. Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) have the lowest P / E ratios, less than 15 times. According to the predicted performance of the organization in 2021, the net profit of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) and Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) in 2021 is expected to double.
Among the 12 stocks, more than half of them have been increased by going north since December, and the top ones are Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) .
Jimin is confused! The market jumps repeatedly, choose "Ning index" or "Mao index"?
After the worst half cut, the king of "Mao index" returned and the stock king revived! The "king of new energy" was greatly reduced
(Securities Times)
