Viewpoint: from a macro perspective, the slowdown in economic growth continues, with great downward pressure. At the same time, liquidity remains stable, but it will take time for easing expectations to improve. At present, the market is dominated by structural market. In the medium term, if inflation falls and liquidity easing expectations increase, the market is still expected to usher in a new trend market. But before that, the market is still uncertain, and the structural market will continue. While paying attention to the overall risk, we can focus on the individual stock market from bottom to top. In the short term, the central bank raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points, which may suppress the targets such as RMB assets. However, under the trend of increasing the expectation of overall monetary easing, the main tone of the market for the better in the medium term remains unchanged. If there is any adjustment in the short term, it is still a good time to actively buy low allocation.
Boosted by the news of the important meeting over the weekend, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher today. After the opening, under the leadership of the securities sector, the Shanghai index continued to rise and recovered 3700 points. Since then, many plates have rushed up and down, and the index has fluctuated lower, but the overall pattern of high opening shock remains. On the disk, building materials led the rise, while utilities, media, building decoration and basic chemical industry led the rise, while national defense and military industry, steel, real estate and non-ferrous metals fell.
Just over the weekend, although the “comprehensive registration system” was only mentioned in the heavy meeting, the meaning was extraordinary. Next, the acceleration and implementation of comprehensive registration set off an uproar in the market. In the secondary market, securities companies are obviously one of the most beneficial sectors stimulated by this news. However, after the continuous upward movement, the power was limited, and there were technically corrected securities companies. Under this positive boost, the probability event also rose and fell, and we should also pay attention to the suppression of the index in the short term.
Looking back, since December, the market’s long factors have been increasing, and the long enthusiasm is also gradually picking up, which adds weight to the establishment of the medium-term positive trend of the market. On the one hand, the market fundamentals and liquidity are relatively stable, laying the foundation for a good market; On the other hand, with the recovery of short-term economy and the easing of external repression, the market downturn began to pick up, especially under the weakening influence of covid-19 variant virus on the market, the positive mood was improved again; In addition, the central bank’s unexpected RRR reduction and the policy tendency of important meetings have brought positive boost to the market.
In this tone, with the substantial net inflow of foreign capital, market sentiment and confidence are also gradually upgrading, the index continues to decline, and the enthusiasm for long is also picking up. Under the support of fundamentals, combined with the overall good performance of the historical cross year and the market in the first quarter of the next year, the positive trend of the market in the medium term of the day was strengthened again.
Of course, it should also be noted that at present, the market is still facing the suppression of “domestic and foreign aggression”, which can not be relaxed in the short term. At present, when it is not fully loose, we also need to pay attention to the continuity of the market upward. Once the incremental funds are less than expected, the index may fall at any time.
Therefore, after continuous upward, it is necessary to consider reducing holdings or changing positions and shares in the short term. From the medium-term perspective, the current is not the best latent opportunity, but patiently waiting for the withdrawal of the index and proper allocation of bargain hunting. From the perspective of steady growth and market rotation, with the gradual clarity of monetary easing trend, we can pay attention to the make-up opportunities of low undervalued blue chips.
(Jufeng Finance)
