The increase is about 11%, and the quotation is nearly 720 yuan / barrel!
On March 3, the limit of the main contract of China’s crude oil futures rose, reaching a new high since its listing in 2018.
On March 26, 2018, China’s crude oil futures were listed. At that time, the international oil price was lower than US $70 / barrel, and the price of China’s crude oil futures was about 430 yuan / barrel.
“The direct rise of crude oil is a little higher than expected.” A researcher from a futures institution said frankly. He said that recently, under the policies of countries to relax epidemic control, the demand for crude oil will certainly increase, the supply and demand structure is tight, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has promoted the sharp rise of oil prices.
Since April 2020, when the international crude oil price fell to an all-time low, it began to rise. It has been rising continuously for nearly four months, reproducing the historical market. The main trading contract of Brent crude oil reached a new high after reaching the $100 mark.
Wind data showed that on March 2, WTI April crude oil futures closed up $7.96, or 7.7%, at $111.37/barrel. Ice Brent crude oil rose $9.57, or 9.12%, to $114.54 a barrel. As of 3:00 p.m. on March 3, ice Brent crude oil exceeded US $117 / barrel. WTI April crude oil futures rose nearly $115 / barrel, a new high since 2014P align = “center” WTI crude oil p align = “center” Russia Ukraine conflict promotion
Since the end of February, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified. At present, the first negotiation between Russia and Ukraine has ended and military operations are still continuing.
Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) data show that Russia is an important crude oil exporter, with 45% – 50% of the total output used for export, accounting for about 13% of the global trade flow, mainly flowing to Europe, China and other Asia Pacific regions. As the main consumption and net import area of crude oil, Europe’s crude oil imports account for 23.6% of the world’s total trade flow. From the perspective of import structure, Europe is extremely dependent on Russia’s oil and gas resources, accounting for about 46% of Europe’s total imports.
In the view of the above-mentioned researchers of futures institutions, the oil price depends on the development of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the short term, whether to impose sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, and also pay attention to the supply of OPEC + in the medium and short term. The call between Russia and the UAE two days ago may be to discuss crude oil and pay attention to the global economic recovery in the medium and long term.
Gu Jintao, assistant general manager of Hengtai futures, analyzed that the follow-up trend of crude oil price is still uncertain. Once Russia is unable to export crude oil under sanctions, the impact of the world’s second-largest crude oil producer on oil prices will be huge. In this case, the short-term impact of crude oil may be $120.
Wang haozheng, a researcher of Changjiang futures, also said that under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States, Europe and other countries excluded some Russian banks from Swift (Global Interbank Financial Communication Association), which has caused some Russian crude oil buyers to suspend procurement. In addition, the oil market is originally tight supply and demand, and the crude oil price can go up. At present, OPEC + will not exceed the production increase plan of 400000 barrels per day per month, and there is no incentive to suppress oil prices.
For the middle and lower reaches of crude oil enterprises, Wang haozheng analyzed that the rise in crude oil prices will lead to the synchronous rise in the prices of chemical products of chemical enterprises. For example, gasoline and diesel, refineries may even have additional profits, because the transportation of crude oil takes 1 ~ 2 months, and the refined oil depends on the current priceP align = “center” several relevant listed companies responded
In response to the recent rise in oil prices, many investors asked how much impact the rise in oil prices had on the business of Listed Companies in Shanghai e interactive. Many listed companies responded to this.
Hainan Mining Co.Ltd(601969) ( Hainan Mining Co.Ltd(601969) . SH) said that the company holds 51% equity of Locke oil company and combines its revenue and profit according to this share ratio. As of the third quarter of 2021, the revenue scale of Locke’s oil and gas business accounted for about 25% of the company’s total revenue. The price of crude oil products of Locke company is in line with the price of Brent crude oil. Recently, the oil distribution price has been rising under the influence of the international situation, which will have a positive impact on the company’s crude oil business in the short term; At present, the natural gas business of Locke company is mainly in Sichuan, China, and the price is determined by the government, which is relatively stable.
Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) ( Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) . SZ), which is mainly engaged in the wholesale and retail of refined oil, said that the company has no crude oil import qualification and reserve function. The rise and fall of international oil prices may affect the wholesale and retail price of refined oil in China. The operation of refined oil of the company is comprehensively affected by multiple factors such as market, supply-demand relationship and national policies.
Some downstream chemical industry companies in A-Shares said they would actively pay attention to and respond to the price changes of raw materials.
At present, the price of crude oil (SZ) has not been significantly affected, but the price of some raw materials has not been affected Jiangsu Baichuan High-Tech New Materials Co.Ltd(002455) ( Jiangsu Baichuan High-Tech New Materials Co.Ltd(002455) . SZ) said that the company will reasonably predict the demand for raw materials according to the production plan, organize the purchase of raw materials on a monthly basis on the basis of ensuring a certain safety inventory, calculate the demand for raw materials according to the contract quantity when signing the contract, and try to sign the purchase contract locking the price of raw materials in time, so as to reasonably control the risk of price fluctuation.
Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ) said that at present, the production and sales of the company are booming. Generally speaking, the rise of oil price will lead to the rise of raw material cost, but the product price will also rise accordingly. The company adopts the operation mode of “long term + spot” and “futures hedging risk”, and responds to the risk of oil price fluctuation by maintaining reasonable inventory.
Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) ( Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) . SH) replied that the rise of bulk chemical materials has pressure on the cost of raw materials of the company, but the company has taken various measures to actively respond. On the one hand, it will increase the purchase volume of most common solvents at relatively low prices to increase short-term reserves. On the other hand, it will adopt a single sales model for products and customers greatly affected by the price of raw materials.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) transportation industry report pointed out that the oil price has risen sharply, and the consumption and transportation demand of coal as an alternative energy is expected to increase. The rising oil price leads to the rising cost of highway and air transportation, while the cost of electrified railway transportation is stable, so the cost performance of railway transportation is improved, and the traffic volume is expected to shift from highway and air to railway. In terms of the proportion of fuel cost, in the first half of 2017, road freight was about 1 / 4, in 2020, road passenger transport was about 1 / 3 and aviation was about 1 / 5. The rise of fuel price has a great impact on the cost, which will be transmitted to the freight.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) judging from the rise in oil prices, the prices of energy, grain, metals and other bulk commodities are expected to rise, and the revenue and profits of bulk supply chain enterprises are expected to increase accordingly. Bulk supply chain enterprises include the value of commodities into their operating income, and the income increases with commodity prices; Under the mode of providing service fee, the profit margin is stable, and the profit increases with the income.
In the stage of commodity price rise in history, the profits of bulk supply chain enterprises tend to accelerate growth. The bulk supply chain is a pattern of large industries and small companies. The head company has rapidly increased its market share based on its competitive advantage, and is expected to maintain high growth in the futureP align = “center” where is the oil price
“The situation in Russia and Ukraine is still changing. This factor is too uncertain. The fundamental logic of crude oil prices has changed.” Gu Jintao told reporters.
The aforementioned futures researcher judged that if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment and risk events continue to increase, it does not rule out breaking through $120 / barrel.
Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) research report said that the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine pushed up the regional risk premium, and the energy sanctions aroused concern. Russia has a close energy relationship with Europe, and the intensity of follow-up sanctions faces a multi-party game. If Europe and the United States implement substantive energy sanctions against Russia, the crude oil price center will increase to 120 US dollars / barrel, and the pulse rise is difficult to measure: Russia’s crude oil export trade flow accounts for 13% of the world’s overall trade volume, and nearly 50% of Europe’s crude oil imports come from Russia. It is self-evident that substantial restrictions on crude oil export will exert pressure on the market. Despite the latest news that the United States will jointly release 30 million barrels of crude oil reserves with major economies, and Iran’s subsequent production capacity of 1.3 million barrels / day is expected to return to balance the current market gap, the general trend of breaking the previous high is expected to be difficult to reverse.
For the future outlook of oil prices, Chen Weichang, senior researcher of Hengtai futures, believes that short-term analysis: first, the space above oil prices depends on the degree of conflict escalation. The escalation of military conflict will lead to supply interruption, and the oil price will rise further; Second, at present, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine is fruitless. It can be seen from the negotiation conditions that there are great differences. If the follow-up talks are still not progressing smoothly and the military conflict continues, it will continue to push up the geo risk premium of crude oil; Third, the IEA currently releases 60 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves (4% of the current oil stocks of IEA Member States), but this scale is not enough to absorb the loss of supply in Russia. Follow up attention will be paid to the production increase plan of the OPEC meeting and the Iran nuclear negotiations. In terms of price, the short-term oil price is wide and strong. It is expected that the average price of oil distribution in March is about 115 US dollars / barrel and that in the second quarter is about 110 US dollars / barrel.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) analysis shows that the short-term oil price trend still needs to continue to track the evolution of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. If Europe and the United States continue to increase sanctions against Russia and severely restrict the export of Russian crude oil and natural gas, it will lead to a substantial shortage of global crude oil and natural gas or significantly push up the oil and gas price. It does not rule out the possibility that the oil price will rush to $120 / barrel or even higher in the short term. In addition, since the recovery of crude oil supply usually lags behind the recovery of demand, considering from the dimension of 1-2 months, there is still the possibility of rapid recovery of demand and relatively tight supply of crude oil. Even without considering the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is strong fundamental support for short-term oil prices.
